MLB Playoff Picture: Final Day of the 2024 Regular Season
Grant White
Host · Writer
Six months ago we started this incredible journey, but we’re about to close the book on it. The 2024 MLB regular season draws to a close on Sunday (for the most part), but there are still some questions that need answering.
What’s left to be decided on the final full day of MLB action?
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Division Winners & Seeding
Let’s start by going over the questions that don’t need answering.
The division winners were set before the start of the weekend series, but the seeding wasn’t finalized until Saturday. Irrespective of outcomes on Sunday, we know who the division winners are and their position in the standings.
National League
Starting with the Senior Circuit, the Los Angeles Dodgers have clinched the NL West title and the first seed. Likewise, the Philadelphia Phillies have secured the other first-round bye and are locked into the second seed. That leaves the Milwaukee Brewers as the NL Central winners to battle it out with the sixth-seed wild card team (more on that later).
American League
There’s finality in the American League standings as well. The Cleveland Guardians dropped Saturday’s tilt versus the Houston Astros, relegating them to the second seed. As such, the New York Yankees earned the top spot and home-field advantage through the AL side of the bracket. Therefore, the Houston Astros start their World Series quest in the Wild Card Round, taking on the still-to-be-determined sixth seed.
MLB Playoff Picture: 2024 American League Pennant Odds
The Unknowns
There’s still plenty to be decided amongst the wild card teams, though. The National League gets a little messy, so for simplicity sake, let’s start in the AL.
AL Wild Card Picture
We know the three wild card teams are the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, and Kansas City Royals. The O’s are locked into the first wild card spot, but there’s still something on the line for the Tigers and Royals.
The Royals hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers but are one game back of their AL Central rivals. With a win, Detroit seals its fate as the second wild card team and fifth seed in the AL; however, a Tigers loss coupled with a Royals win vaults KC to the fifth seed. Of course, if both teams lose, their positions remain unchanged.
NL Wild Card Picture
There’s much more uncertainty in the National League. We know the San Diego Padres are the first wild card team, but the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and Arizona Diamondbacks are vying for the final two spots.
As it stands, the Braves have a one-game advantage over the Mets and D-Backs. But by virtue of the postponements due to Hurricane Helene, Atlanta and New York have played two fewer games than the Diamondbacks. That raises the stakes for Sunday’s games and beyond, as the Braves and Mets conclude the regular season with a doubleheader on Monday.
Things Get Messier
Heading into Sunday’s action, the Braves and Diamondbacks are tied with 88 wins. The Mets are one win back of both clubs, albeit with 72 losses compared to Arizona’s 73 and Atlanta’s 71.
More simply, Atlanta guarantees itself a postseason berth with two more wins. Likewise, if the Mets win out, they clinch a berth. Arizona needs a win versus the Padres on Sunday, but also needs some help to sneak in and defend its National League crown.
Arizona needs the Braves or Mets to lose out, or the Braves to take both games of Monday’s doubleheader if the Mets win on Sunday. If the Braves win just one of three games, they still advance as they hold the tiebreaker over the D-Backs.
Three-Way Tie
There’s also a possibility that all three teams finish with identical 89-73 records. If that’s the case, the Mets and Braves advance on the strength of the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, the seeding depends on the outcome of Monday’s doubleheader. Right now, the Braves hold a 6-5 advantage in the season series versus the Mets. Therefore, they need at least one win to clinch the fifth seed. But if New York takes both games, it usurps the Braves for the second wild card spot.
MLB Playoff Picture: 2024 National League Pennant Odds
Final Thoughts – The Stakes Are Still High
To quote the iconic Brad Pitt depicting Billy Beane, “How could you not be romantic about baseball?" After an excruciating 161 games, there’s still so much to be decided. The top four seeds in both leagues are spoken for, but teams are still battling it out for crucial positioning in the standings.
The Tigers and Royals will sort things out in the AL, while the Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks will put their best product on the field for the final Sunday of the regular season. Ultimately, Monday’s doubleheader between the Braves and Mets decides it all.
Time to light some candles and break open a bottle of wine to get the mood just right.
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