MLB · 3 hours ago

MLB Wild Card Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top Betting Picks (Oct. 2)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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Two do-or-die Game 3s headline this evening’s MLB Wild Card action, with everything on the line for four storied franchises. At Wrigley Field, the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs square off after splitting the first two games in Chicago, while Yankee Stadium sets the stage for another chapter in the New York Yankees–Boston Red Sox rivalry. Both series have been tight, low-scoring, and defined by pitching swings, but now elimination night raises the stakes. With the Cubs struggling at the plate, San Diego’s bullpen surging, and Boston turning to a rookie lefty against a sputtering New York lineup, the board offers sharp betting angles in prime spots.

It’s Elimination Day, and we are eliminating any doubt on who you should be backing on a wonderful Wild Card Thursday night.

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Where to Watch Padres vs Cubs Game 3

Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Where to Watch: ESPN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
Spread: SD -1.5 (+162) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: SD -102 | CHC -116

Bet 2: Padres Moneyline -102

The Cubs have looked lost at the plate through the first two games of this series, hitting just .175 with a .298 slugging percentage while striking out 24 times. They’ve managed only three total runs—tied for the lowest output of any playoff team so far—and now run into a San Diego staff that has slammed the door late. Padres relievers own a 1.08 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, and a .160 opponents’ batting average this postseason, making every run against them a grind. It’s not as though Chicago entered October in form either—they hit just .248 as a team in September, even if Kyle Tucker’s recent return adds some thump.

On the other side, San Diego’s offense looks primed to keep pushing. The Padres finished seventh in expected batting average (.260) during the regular season, eight points higher than their actual .252 mark, suggesting more was left on the table. With Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. anchoring the middle, this lineup has consistently profiled better than the raw results showed.

The pitching matchup tilts even further in San Diego’s favor. Yu Darvish, returning to Wrigley Field where he spent three seasons, has historically thrived among the ivy, boasting a 3.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a .125 opponents’ batting average in 30 career starts. He blanked the Cubs over five innings in his most recent start there last year, and his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for sharper results. Darvish’s 2025 expected ERA of 3.64 is nearly two runs lower than his inflated 5.38 ERA, and his .227 xBA allowed is well below his actual .245 mark. After missing significant time early with an elbow issue, the veteran right-hander looks like a prime regression candidate—in a good way.

Jameson Taillon, meanwhile, might be pitching above his true level. His surface numbers—3.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .225 opponents’ average—look strong, but the peripherals tell a different story. Taillon owns a 3.88 xERA, a .250 xBA allowed, and a barrel rate north of 8%. He doesn’t miss bats, either: his 18.9% strikeout rate ranks in the bottom 22% of MLB, while his 20.8% whiff rate is in the bottom 16%. Against a Padres lineup that makes consistent contact, that profile is dangerous.

With the Cubs’ offense sputtering, San Diego’s bullpen locked in, and Darvish lined up for a bounce-back start against an overperforming Taillon, the Padres’ moneyline at -102 is the sharp side in tonight’s decisive Game 3.

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Where to Watch Red Sox vs Yankees Game 3

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: The Bronx, New York
Where to Watch: ESPN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+128) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: BOS +144 | NYY -172

Bet 1: Red Sox Moneyline +144

In a series where both games could have gone either way, as deep as the eighth inning, getting this kind of price for the visitors screams “Take me!" When the gambling gods yell, I listen.

The Yankees’ bats haven’t exactly brought fear into October. Through the early stretch of the playoffs, New York is hitting just .258 with a .300 OBP, slugging .364, and pushing across only five total runs. That lack of punch leaves the door open for Boston in a decisive Game 3.

While Boston hasn’t been much better in this series, the Red Sox offense was one of the most consistent in the majors during the regular season. The Sox finished seventh in runs (4.9 per game), eighth in OBP (.324), ninth in slugging (.421), and ninth in OPS (.745). Their advanced profile was even sharper—ranking third in hard-hit rate (44.8%), eighth in barrel rate (9.2%), ninth in xwOBACON (.388), and third in average exit velocity (90.3 mph).

On the mound, it will be rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler that the Red Sox try to make an example of, where the first-year man’s underlying profile screams regression. His 3.99 expected ERA sits more than a full run higher than his 2.96 regular-season ERA, and his 1.22 WHIP points to too many baserunners. Chase and whiff rates hover around league average, while contact metrics are middling—40.2% hard-hit rate, 8.2% barrel rate, and 89 mph average exit velocity. He’s also struggled with durability, failing to complete six innings in nine of 14 starts, with his longest outing coming against a soft Baltimore Orioles lineup last week.

Boston counters with rookie lefty Connelly Early, who’s looked anything but overwhelmed in his first taste of the big stage. Early owns a 2.33 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through his first four starts, striking out 29 batters across 19.1 innings—7.25 Ks per game. His advanced numbers suggest it’s no fluke: a 2.28 xERA, a 33.9% whiff rate, and a 36.7% chase rate all scream sustainability. Hitters haven’t squared him up either, managing just a 4.4% barrel rate. That plays well against a Yankees lineup that struck out the third-most times in baseball this year.

With New York’s bats sputtering, Schittler’s profile pointing toward regression, and Boston rolling out a live arm with swing-and-miss stuff, the value sits squarely with the Red Sox moneyline at +144.

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