The 2026 Brewers Are a Team of X-factors

The Milwaukee Brewers tend to be one of the more fascinating, and challenging, teams to predict each offseason.

They’re seemingly immune to roster turnover; despite losing key roster members in recent offseasons, they’re managed to increase their win total in each of the last three seasons. They also tend to rely upon young talent as much as any team in the sport, making it difficult to gauge expectations.

It will be more of the same for the 2026 Brewers, but that always makes for some exciting dialogue. When it comes to predicting who might be the team’s biggest X-factor, they have a roster filled with players who fit the bill.

X-factors tend to be players who can make a substantial impact on a team’s outlook and can alter the course of a season if things pan out. They’re also players where if things don’t go according to plan then it leaves a sizable hole that needs to be filled.

When going through this exercise for Milwaukee, an argument could be made for so many different names on this roster. So, let’s break down who might be the Brew Crew’s biggest X-factor in 2026.

Offensive X-factors

As was alluded to, one could make a case for essentially anyone in the Brewers’ projected lineup to be the X-factor heading into 2026.

For example, William Contreras is a proven MVP candidate when on top of his game. Fans have seen just how much Christian Yelich can impact the game when he is healthy. And Jackson Chourio has room for a full-fledged breakout heading into his age-22 season.

However, there were a few other hitters who stood out as bigger X-factors heading into the new season. These are guys who have a lot of pressure to perform, and if they don’t then it will cause a rather large ripple effect in the lineup.

1B Andrew Vaughn

One could argue the biggest reason the Brewers’ offense was as good as it was last season was because of Andrew Vaughn.

From Opening Day through July 6, Milwaukee had the 15th-best wRC+ in baseball (98) while ranking 16th in batting average (.247) and wOBA (.309) and 19th in OPS (.703). From July 7, the day Vaughn was called up, through the end of the regular season, the Brewers had the second-best wRC+ in MLB (118) while ranking second in batting average (.272), third in wOBA (.338), and fifth in OPS (.775).

While there were a lot things factoring into Milwaukee’s offensive surge, Vaughn’s .308/.375/.493 slash line, 142 wRC+, and .869 OPS certainly helped. Let’s not forget that Vaughn’s bat was a large reason why the Brewers got past the Cubs in the NLDS, too, slashing .286/.412/.714 for a 205 wRC+ in that series.

With Rhys Hoskins no longer in the picture and the primary backup option being Jake Bauers, there will be a lot of pressure on Vaughn’s bat in 2026.

Now, nobody is expecting Vaughn to continue the torrid pace that fans saw in 2025. However, the degree to which Vaughn regresses could have a monumental impact on how the Brewers’ offense performs this coming season.

At his peak, he proved to be a lethal bat capable of carrying the team to victory in the middle of the lineup. Alternatively, he has been a below-average hitter more often than not throughout his young MLB career, and it’s entirely possible he comes back down to earth.

That would leave a sizeable gap for the Brewers to fill offensively, and the range of outcomes for Vaughn makes him one of the biggest X-factors in Milwaukee’s lineup.

SS Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz’s ceiling isn’t near as high as Vaughn’s, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an X-factor for this team.

In 2025, Ortiz was one of the worst qualified hitters in Major League Baseball, finishing with the third-lowest wRC+ (67) and the lowest OPS (.593) and wOBA (.263) in MLB. He was benched on multiple occasions for his performance at the plate, and he battled confidence issues offensively all throughout the season.

Fans saw a different version of Ortiz in 2024, though. As a rookie, Ortiz posted a .726 OPS and a 105 wRC+, ending the season with 3.2 fWAR. Those offensive numbers might not fly off the page, but the difference in his production between those two seasons is quite significant.

Ortiz is always going to provide value with his glove — it’s the only reason he managed to post 1.4 fWAR in 2025. But if he provides another offensive season like he did in 2025, the Brewers will have to decide whether or not that defensive value outweighs his struggles with the bat.

The difference between him being a close-to-league-average bat in the nine spot and a black hole in the lineup is substantial. And whichever version of Ortiz the Brewers get in 2026 will not only impact how the team performs this coming year, but it will also have rather large repercussions on how they construct their infield moving forward.

With top prospects Jesus Made and Luis Pena climbing the ranks, along with a budding Cooper Pratt and Jett Williams becoming close to MLB-ready, the shortstop position is very competitive in Milwaukee.

There is a lot of pressure on Ortiz to perform if he wishes to retain the starting job moving forward. If his offensive production craters again, it creates a very fascinating game of musical chairs around the infield for the Brewers’ front office to figure out.

Pitching X-factors

Freddy Peralta’s departure looms large in the starting rotation. Without their longtime starter anchoring the top of the rotation, the Brewers have big shoes to fill in order to repeat their success in 2026.

Peralta’s void leaves room for someone else in the rotation to step up. Whether it be one of their young arms or a guy who has been there for quite some time, the opportunity is there for one of Milwaukee’s arms to seize the role and make a great impact.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

This conversation must start with Brandon Woodruff, who heads into his age-33 season as the de facto ace for Milwaukee.

Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Woodruff has the fourth-lowest ERA among MLB starters at 2.77. He maintained stellar results even after returning from shoulder surgery in 2025, pitching to a 3.20 ERA, so there’s no questioning his overall ability.

The biggest question with Woodruff is his health. What will his workload look like, and how many innings can the Brewers’ bank on getting from him this coming year? That is the ultimate X-factor.

Pitching depth shouldn’t be an issue for Milwaukee. They have plenty of irons in the fire heading into 2026 with arms like Brandon Sproat, Robert Gasser, and Kyle Harrison all expected to start the year in the minor leagues.

But the Brewers need an ace to spearhead the rotation. When healthy, Woodruff is capable of doing that. He’s got the leadership, experience, and proven track record to be that kind of arm. But for someone who has just over 131 innings dating back to the beginning of 2023, it’s hard to envision him being the workhorse that the Brewers may need.

If Woodruff does provide 150 innings at a mid-3.00s ERA, it would completely stabilize the top of the rotation. If he struggles or goes down with injury once more, it would thrust Quinn Priester or Jacob Misiorowski into the No. 1 spot in the rotation — a role where it’s yet to be seen if those two arms can perform as the team’s primary starter.

There are a lot of layers to Woodruff’s impact this coming season. Will the Brewers get the oft-injured version of Woodruff, or will they get the arm who has been one of the more steady and consistent performers across his Brewers tenure? The answer will have a major impact on Milwaukee’s pitching situation.

RHP Jacob Misiorowski

Similar to the Woodruff conversation, Jacob Misiorowski has the ace-level upside to take over as the new top starter in Milwaukee.

Should he reach his potential and ascend as the No. 1 starter on the team, it solves all the issues presented above. It would also take pressure off of Woodruff and allow him to ease back into things.

Alternatively, there is downside with Misiorowski’s profile. Perhaps he falls into the spells of command inconsistencies that fans saw at times in 2025 and throughout his professional career. That would have a ripple effect on the rest of the rotation, too.

If anybody is going to match what Peralta provided across the last three seasons, it’s going to be Misiorowski. He presents a ceiling that no other arm in the rotation can match, but there’s no ignoring the risk that comes with that ceiling.

Should he take a step forward and become a frontline arm in 2026, the rotation looks a lot more lethal at the top. He could also experience growing pains — both outcomes are equally possible, making him a major X-factor in this rotation.

Sleeper X-factor: OF Garrett Mitchell

The sleeper X-factor for the 2026 Brewers is Garrett Mitchell, who is entering a make-or-break year.

Mitchell is in his first year of arbitration with just 141 career MLB games under his belt. His career high in games played in a season is 69, which speaks to just how unavailable he has been since breaking into the show.

Dating back to the beginning of 2023, the Brewers have approached the new year with Mitchell as the starting center fielder and have had to pivot to a lesser option early on in the year. It’s time to see what this group is capable of with a healthy Mitchell roaming center field; the end result could be one of the better-producing outfields in MLB should things go according to plan.

Mitchell has tantalizing tools but has yet to showcase them over the course of a full season. In his limited MLB sample size (968.1 innings), he has racked up +10 defensive runs saved and +9 outs above average. He’s also one of the fastest players in MLB, has shown an ability to do damage on the baseball when he elevates, and boasts some really impressive swing decisions.

The issue lies with his poor bat-to-ball numbers (34.4% career whiff rate, 74.5% career in-zone contact rate) and his astronomical punchout rate in his young big-league career (33.9%). But with him missing prolonged periods of time for three straight seasons, it’s hard to imagine he’s been able to find any sort of groove at the MLB level.

What makes Mitchell an X-factor is the alternative options the Brewers have to turn to if he does miss more time.

Blake Perkins is a fine fourth outfielder who can provide elite defensive value in center, but his bat is well-below average. The Brewers are a much better team when Perkins can be called upon off the bench rather than being relied upon as the starting center fielder.

Moreover, Akil Baddoo is slashing just .201/.288/.323 in his 223 games since 2022, and Brandon Lockridge, while a speedster who also provides ample defensive value, isn’t known for his bat.

Point being, when healthy, Mitchell provides that speed and defensive value while also presenting the offensive upside of being a capable middle-of-the-order bat. The drop off from him to the bench options, especially with Isaac Collins no longer in the picture, is significant.

He’s entering the part of his Brewers tenure where he needs to prove that he can stay on the field if he wishes to retain a starting outfield role moving forward in Milwaukee.

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