Top Contenders or the Field: Who Will Win the 2024 World Series?
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Houston Astros
At this stage, it seems probable that the Astros will miss the playoffs entirely. However, if any team can orchestrate a dramatic midseason comeback, it's Houston.
The Astros boast one of the most talented lineups in the American League, and their pitching staff has the potential to perform much better, even with the injuries they've faced.
If Houston can secure a spot in October, they possess the star power in their lineup, rotation, and bullpen to make a formidable run for another title.
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Top Dogs
As we approach the midpoint of the season, the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers have emerged as the elite teams in MLB. These four squads are leading the league in run differential, each boasting a margin of over 100 runs more scored than allowed. They also dominate in total runs scored, runs allowed, and winning percentage, securing their status as the best teams in the sport.
Despite this dominance, the Guardians have quietly outpaced the Dodgers by two games in the win-loss record. Nevertheless, Los Angeles remains the favorite for the World Series, according to most reputable sources, solidifying the Dodgers, along with the Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles, as the top contenders.
Yet, even with their impressive stats, there are still 26 other teams vying for the World Series title. Realistically, 21 of those teams have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. (Apologies to fans of the White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, Athletics, and Angels—you know where your teams stand.)
The question is: Does it make sense to favor the top four teams over a broader field of 21 contenders? Despite the stellar performances of the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers, a closer examination might reveal that betting on just four teams against the rest is not as straightforward as it seems.
Playoff Odds
The websites FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference each present their own World Series odds in percentage form. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles consistently rank among the top five teams across all three sources.
FanGraphs places the Braves slightly ahead of the Orioles, while the PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus have the Guardians edging out the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baseball Reference lists the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, and Phillies as the top contenders, with the Brewers trailing closely behind by a few decimal points.
Collectively, the World Series odds for the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles are 53.5% on FanGraphs, 56.3% according to PECOTA, and 58.4% on Baseball Reference. In essence, all three sources suggest that while the dominant quartet is favored to win the World Series, the margin is quite narrow.
The Side of History
Let’s approach this question from a different angle: How frequently does one of the top four MLB teams actually win the World Series?
The answer varies depending on how you define the "best teams," but recent history suggests it happens about half the time. Over the past 10 years, five champions were clearly elite teams: the 2022 Astros, 2020 Dodgers, 2018 Red Sox, 2017 Astros, and 2016 Cubs.
Conversely, the 2023 Rangers, 2021 Braves, 2019 Nationals, 2015 Royals, and 2014 Giants weren’t necessarily considered super teams. Of these, only the 2015 Royals finished among the top four teams by record, and only the 2023 Rangers ranked in the top four in run differential. While you could argue for these Royals and Rangers, they didn’t appear as dominant as this season's top four teams.
Historical data suggests that while the top four teams have a slight edge over the field, it's a narrow one.
Digging deeper, we can examine historical precedent up to this point in the season. The Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers still need to prove they can sustain their performance over 162 games. Many teams start strong but fade in the second half.
However, examining data through mid-June strengthens the argument for favoring the top four teams. In the past decade, eight of the last 10 champions were among the top three teams in MLB through mid-June. Only the 2019 Nationals (21st in MLB) and 2021 Braves (20th in MLB) were outside the top four in winning percentage at this stage of their championship seasons.
Thus, in the last decade, no team that looked merely "pretty good" in mid-June has won the World Series. Champions have either been top teams or underdogs who made remarkable second-half runs.
(*Note: The introduction of a third Wild Card spot in each league has increased the chances of a lower-ranked team winning the World Series. However, the first-round bye for the top two seeds means that the best teams’ chances of winning remain largely unchanged under the new system.)
In summary, both advanced data and historical evidence point to the same conclusion: The Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers are the safer bet over the field.
But wait... doesn't the composition of the field matter?
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Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland may have been overlooked initially, but it’s time to give the Guardians their due. Entering 2023 as the AL Central favorites, a disappointing 76-86 finish and a quiet offseason had many doubting their 2024 prospects. That skepticism proved misguided.
Despite losing Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery in early April and Steven Kwan for nearly a month in early May, the Guardians have maintained their grip on first place in the AL Central for most of the year. Their offense has surpassed expectations, the starting rotation has managed without Bieber, and the bullpen has been exceptional.
While it may seem unlikely for the Guardians to sustain a 103-win pace all season, they've managed to do so thus far. With the Yankees and Orioles both contending for their division, the Guardians could secure the number two seed in the AL and a first-round bye to the ALDS if they continue their winning ways.
For all your MLB deep dives, check out our friends at Just Baseball.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have experienced a significant decline amid an unexpected losing streak. With Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. on the injured list, they no longer resemble the powerhouse team that started the season as a favorite for the title.
However, the Braves still boast one of the best rosters in baseball on paper. If Matt Olson continues to overcome his early-season slump and Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy hit their strides, the team could quickly re-enter the World Series conversation.
Even without Strider, a playoff rotation featuring their current staff could be formidable.
Seattle Mariners
Should the Guardians falter, the Mariners could seize the opportunity to claim the number two seed in the AL, along with the highly sought-after first-round bye.
As the Houston Astros struggle to recover from their slow start and the Texas Rangers await reinforcements from the injured list, the Mariners have emerged as the clear favorites in the AL West.
While Seattle hasn't been as consistently dominant as Cleveland this season, the Mariners are currently on a hot streak and have always appeared stronger on paper. The Guardians’ pitching staff is riddled with uncertainties, whereas the Mariners' rotation is solid. Their starters just need adequate run support.
Julio Rodríguez is finally finding his form in June, and if he continues to excel, he could almost singlehandedly carry the team's offense.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have taken the lead in the NL Central, but their divisional edge doesn’t significantly boost their World Series odds, with the Dodgers and Phillies likely to secure the two first-round byes in the NL.
Nevertheless, the Brewers have exceeded expectations this season, much like the Guardians. Both their offense and defense have been impressive, leaving the main concern as whether their starting rotation can maintain its performance until the front office can acquire some crucial reinforcements.
Houston Astros
At this stage, it seems probable that the Astros will miss the playoffs entirely. However, if any team can orchestrate a dramatic midseason comeback, it's Houston.
The Astros boast one of the most talented lineups in the American League, and their pitching staff has the potential to perform much better, even with the injuries they've faced.
If Houston can secure a spot in October, they possess the star power in their lineup, rotation, and bullpen to make a formidable run for another title.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Top Dogs
As we approach the midpoint of the season, the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers have emerged as the elite teams in MLB. These four squads are leading the league in run differential, each boasting a margin of over 100 runs more scored than allowed. They also dominate in total runs scored, runs allowed, and winning percentage, securing their status as the best teams in the sport.
Despite this dominance, the Guardians have quietly outpaced the Dodgers by two games in the win-loss record. Nevertheless, Los Angeles remains the favorite for the World Series, according to most reputable sources, solidifying the Dodgers, along with the Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles, as the top contenders.
Yet, even with their impressive stats, there are still 26 other teams vying for the World Series title. Realistically, 21 of those teams have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. (Apologies to fans of the White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, Athletics, and Angels—you know where your teams stand.)
The question is: Does it make sense to favor the top four teams over a broader field of 21 contenders? Despite the stellar performances of the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers, a closer examination might reveal that betting on just four teams against the rest is not as straightforward as it seems.
