The Side of History
Let’s approach this question from a different angle: How frequently does one of the top four MLB teams actually win the World Series?
The answer varies depending on how you define the "best teams," but recent history suggests it happens about half the time. Over the past 10 years, five champions were clearly elite teams: the 2022 Astros, 2020 Dodgers, 2018 Red Sox, 2017 Astros, and 2016 Cubs.
Conversely, the 2023 Rangers, 2021 Braves, 2019 Nationals, 2015 Royals, and 2014 Giants weren’t necessarily considered super teams. Of these, only the 2015 Royals finished among the top four teams by record, and only the 2023 Rangers ranked in the top four in run differential. While you could argue for these Royals and Rangers, they didn’t appear as dominant as this season's top four teams.
Historical data suggests that while the top four teams have a slight edge over the field, it's a narrow one.
Digging deeper, we can examine historical precedent up to this point in the season. The Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers still need to prove they can sustain their performance over 162 games. Many teams start strong but fade in the second half.
However, examining data through mid-June strengthens the argument for favoring the top four teams. In the past decade, eight of the last 10 champions were among the top three teams in MLB through mid-June. Only the 2019 Nationals (21st in MLB) and 2021 Braves (20th in MLB) were outside the top four in winning percentage at this stage of their championship seasons.
Thus, in the last decade, no team that looked merely "pretty good" in mid-June has won the World Series. Champions have either been top teams or underdogs who made remarkable second-half runs.
(*Note: The introduction of a third Wild Card spot in each league has increased the chances of a lower-ranked team winning the World Series. However, the first-round bye for the top two seeds means that the best teams’ chances of winning remain largely unchanged under the new system.)
In summary, both advanced data and historical evidence point to the same conclusion: The Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers are the safer bet over the field.
But wait... doesn't the composition of the field matter?
