What Can the Padres Expect From Joe Musgrove in 2026?

Joe Musgrove is set to start the year on the injured list, and while this isn’t a shock for someone returning from Tommy John surgery, it is not an encouraging sign for the San Diego Padres starter. 

Musgrove made one spring start in an exhibition game against Team Great Britain, and he hasn’t recovered as well as he would have liked. 

This update doesn’t present a clear timeline for Musgrove’s next start or when he will make his season debut, but it doesn’t sound like it is a setback in his recovery.

While it isn’t ideal for Musgrove not to start the year in the rotation, what’s more important is that he is healthy for the majority of the season and the postseason. With the rotation as thin as it is, the team cannot afford to have Musgrove miss a chunk or entire season.

How Effective Was Musgrove Pre-Surgery?

Before diving into expectations for Musgrove’s 2026 season, let’s first outline the caliber of pitcher he was before surgery.

From 2021 to 2024, Musgrove posted a 3.20 ERA while averaging 146 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP in 140 innings per season. That is top-25 starter territory.

At his best, Musgrove pounded the top of the zone with his four-seam fastball. His cutter and curveball tunneled effectively off that pitch, making up for 73% of his pitch usage. He complemented that core with occasionally mixing in a slider, changeup, and sinker.

The effectiveness of that mix showed up in his underlying metrics. In 2023, when fully utilizing all six pitches, Musgrove generated a 35.5% chase rate (99th percentile), allowing him to induce consistent weak contact. Just as importantly, he paired that with elite command, posting a 5.3% walk rate (90th percentile).

This is the version of Musgrove that Padres fans hope to see again, but expectations should be tempered.

What Are Realistic Expectations for Joe Musgrove?

With the timeline for Musgrove’s return murky, the chances of him logging a full-season’s workload appear slim. A more realistic workload is the 120-inning mark, with 140 innings being on the optimistic end.

Another reality that Padres fans will have to face is that Musgrove’s recovery is unlikely to be linear, similar to the one he is currently dealing with. Throughout the season, his starts could be pushed back an extra day or potentially skipped in the rotation to ensure his health throughout the season. 

From a performance standpoint, he projects to have a 3.89 ERA. While this figure is higher than his career average, it makes sense when coming off a major injury. Expect a dip in his strikeout rate, paired with an increase in his walk rate as he regains full feel and trust of all of his pitches. 

Velocity will be a key indicator. It may see a dip to start the year, and should tick up as the season progresses. If Musgrove can get back to sitting at 93 mph by the end of the season, the rest of his stuff will play off of his fastball, much like it did pre-surgery.

Overall, Musgrove should still provide value in the rotation, with the understanding that improvement will likely come over time. A slower first half followed by a stronger second half feels like the most probable outcome as he continues to adjust and regain comfort.

Final Thoughts

The rotation will be in serious trouble if Musgrove cannot pitch for the majority of the season. The team is going about his recovery the right way by not rushing his recovery and keeping a big picture mindset. 

The emergence of Randy Vásquez buys the team some time, but Mugrove will be needed if this team wants to accomplish its goal of winning a World Series. His success will determine how far the team will go.

In the short term, this gives both Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez extended looks in the rotation. Early on in camp, it looked like there was one rotation spot up for grabs. Musgrove’s injury opens the door for both Buehler and Márquez to grab a spot on the Opening Day roster while Musgrove, and fellow starter Griffin Canning, return from their respective injuries.

Expect either Kyle Hart or Matt Waldron to fill in for spot starts until Musgrove returns, too. While they might not be the flashiest of names, the Padres have pitching depth to pluck from. That depth is being tested before the 2026 season even begins.

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