NBA · 3 months ago

2025 NBA Playoffs: Knicks at Celtics, Nuggets at Thunder 4-Leg Parlay

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Dive into today’s NBA playoff parlay picks, featuring detailed analysis, alternate spreads, and targeted player props. Maximize your betting edge with strategic insights into Celtics-Knicks and Thunder-Nuggets Game 2 matchups.

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Wednesday NBA Betting Guide

4-5 Star Bets: Picks Page | Props Page

Betting Previews: NY-BOS | DEN-OKC

Player Props: NY-BOS | DEN-OKC

Leg 1: Celtics Alt Spread -5.5 vs Knicks (-235)

Why This Bet?

The Boston Celtics are primed for a bounce-back performance after blowing a 20-point lead in their Game 1 overtime loss to the New York Knicks. Despite that collapse, Boston has consistently demonstrated dominance over New York this season, sweeping the regular season series with four straight wins before the Game 1 setback. By adjusting to an alternate spread of -5.5, bettors secure essential coverage in what figures to be a motivated and assertive response from Boston.

Matchup Analytics

Recent Form & Head-to-Head:
- Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games, allowing opponents just 96.9 PPG.
- Prior to Game 1’s 108-105 OT loss, Boston had defeated New York in four consecutive matchups.
- Boston has held opponents to the lowest points per game (96) and the second-lowest field goal percentage (42.2%) in the playoffs thus far.
Boston’s Defensive Edge:
- The Celtics’ defense has been stifling in these playoffs, notably limiting opponents’ efficiency and scoring.
- The Celtics are 14-2 against their division and have consistently held teams well under their scoring averages.
Statistical Advantages for Boston:
- Boston averages 116.3 points per game, outperforming the Knicks’ defensive allowance (111.7 PPG).
- The Celtics’ shooting efficiency (46.2% FG) complements their robust scoring, which is particularly valuable against a Knicks team that struggles defensively against teams above .500 (New York is 19-23 vs. teams above .500).

X-Factor Considerations:

Jayson Tatum’s Consistency:
- Averaging 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and six assists per game, Jayson Tatum’s versatility and scoring capability are critical to Boston’s success.
Jaylen Brown’s Supporting Role:
- Jaylen Brown, who led Boston with 23 points in Game 1, continues to provide essential scoring support. After averaging 14.4 points over the last 10 games, Brown is due to continue his hot scoring from the opener.

Stat Profile Snapshot:

Celtics L10: 105.5 PPG | 44.4% FG | Opponent’s PPG: 96.9
Knicks L10: 107.7 PPG | 44.3% FG | Opponent’s PPG: 107.3
Head-to-Head: Celtics 8-2 vs. Knicks (last 10 meetings)

Final Word:

The Celtics’ elite defense, superior recent record against New York, and motivation to rebound strongly from a disappointing Game 1 loss provide solid backing for the alternate spread of -5.5. This cautious yet confident approach gives bettors both safety and value in a crucial playoff game for Boston.

NY vs BOS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Leg 2: Derrick White 15+ Points (-160)

Why This Bet?

Derrick White has consistently delivered against the Knicks this season, making the adjusted scoring prop of 15+ points highly appealing. His efficient shooting, coupled with the Knicks’ struggles defensively against shooting guards, positions White well for another productive outing in Game 2.

Matchup Analytics

Recent Scoring Trends:
- White averaged 16.4 PPG during the regular season on 44.2% shooting, with 3.5 threes per game at 38.4%.
- Against New York specifically, White boosted his scoring to 18.5 PPG on exceptional 54.3% shooting, including 4.8 threes per game.
Playoff Performance:
- Currently averaging 17.5 PPG in the postseason, White maintains efficiency at 46.9% shooting with 3.2 threes per contest.
Knicks Defensive Vulnerabilities:
- The Knicks ranked 20th in defending shooting guards, allowing 24.0 PPG and a league-worst 46.2% field goal percentage from the position.
- They also permit an average of 3.4 made threes per game to shooting guards.

X-Factor Considerations:

Consistency vs. Knicks:
- White exceeded 15 points in four of five matchups against the Knicks this season, including a 19-point outing in Game 1. His only miss was narrowly by a single point (14 points in early April).

Stat Profile Snapshot:

Regular Season: 16.4 PPG | 44.2% FG | 3.5 threes per game
Vs. Knicks: 18.5 PPG | 54.3% FG | 4.8 threes per game
Postseason: 17.5 PPG | 46.9% FG | 3.2 threes per game
Knicks Defense vs. SG: 24.0 PPG allowed (20th) | 46.2% FG allowed (30th)

Final Word:

Given White’s consistent scoring against New York, the Knicks’ struggles defending his position, and his playoff form, this 15+ points prop offers substantial value and reliability as a second leg in the parlay.

Leg 3: Thunder Alt Spread -4.5 vs Nuggets (-245)

Why This Bet?

The Oklahoma City Thunder, owners of the best home record during the regular season, are positioned perfectly for a bounce-back performance after narrowly losing Game 1 to the Denver Nuggets. Despite leading 104–95 with just under seven minutes remaining, the Thunder saw their advantage slip away, potentially due to rust from a nine-day gap since wrapping up their first-round series. Expect improved fourth-quarter execution and home-court advantage to strongly favor Oklahoma City in Game 2.

Matchup Analytics

Recent Form & Home Dominance:
- Thunder posted an NBA-best home record (35-6) during the regular season, emphasizing their home-court advantage.
- Before the Game 1 loss, Oklahoma City had won eight straight, averaging 121.9 points per contest while allowing only 109.2 over their past 10.
Game 1 Breakdown:
- Oklahoma City held a nine-point fourth-quarter lead, indicating their competitive edge despite the eventual 121–119 loss.
- The prolonged layoff between series (nine days) likely contributed to fourth-quarter rust, particularly affecting their late-game execution.
Key Statistical Advantages:
- Oklahoma City thrives in games decided by larger margins (54-5 in games decided by 10 or more points).
- The Thunder effectively stretches defenses with 14.5 made threes per game, slightly above the 14.1 allowed by Denver’s defense.

X-Factor Considerations:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & Jalen Williams:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains consistent, averaging 28.8 points over the last 10 games, including 33 in Game 1.
- Jalen Williams is providing additional firepower, shooting 47.8% from the field and averaging 21.8 points per game this postseason.
Denver’s Division Struggles:
- The Nuggets are just 8–8 against Northwest Division teams, suggesting vulnerability against familiar opponents like the Thunder.

Stat Profile Snapshot:

Thunder L10: 121.9 PPG | 46.8% FG | Opponents’ PPG: 109.2
Nuggets L10: 111.8 PPG | 48.1% FG | Opponents’ PPG: 109.7
Home Advantage: Thunder best NBA home record, strong bounce-back spot
Game 1 Result: Thunder led late (104-95), lost 121-119

Final Word:

With rust likely shaken off after Game 1 and a return to their dominant home-court form, the Thunder are well-positioned to win comfortably. Taking the alternate spread at -4.5 provides valuable safety and strong probability as the third leg of this parlay.

DEN vs OKC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Leg 4: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-128)

Why This Bet?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA scoring champion, averaging 32.7 points per game, is poised for a major scoring performance against a vulnerable Denver defense. With an even stronger scoring average at home (33.5 PPG), SGA is positioned perfectly to surpass his 32.5 points prop in Game 2.

Matchup Analytics

Denver’s Defensive Vulnerabilities:
- Ranked 25th in points allowed during the regular season (116.9 PPG).
- Currently ranked 12th out of 16 playoff teams defensively, allowing 109.6 PPG.
- Struggled defending point guards specifically, ranking:
  - 23rd in defensive efficiency against the position.
  - 27th in points allowed (24.7 PPG) to PGs.
  - 20th in three-pointers allowed per game (14.1 overall, 21st specifically allowing 3.6 threes to PGs).
SGA’s Dominance vs. Nuggets:
- Averaged 30.3 points and 1.8 threes per game against Denver in four regular-season matchups.
- Slight uptick in scoring at home, averaging 33.5 points per game this season.
Playoff & Season Performance:
- Averaging 28.8 PPG in these playoffs, demonstrating consistent scoring form.
- Regular-season scoring leader (32.7 PPG), indicating proven ability to exceed this total routinely.

Stat Profile Snapshot:

Regular Season vs. DEN: 30.3 PPG | 1.8 threes per game
Playoffs: 28.8 PPG | 1.8 threes per game
Regular Season Average: 32.7 PPG (NBA scoring title)
Home Average: 33.5 PPG
Denver Defense (Regular season): 116.9 PPG allowed (25th), 24.7 PPG allowed to PG (27th)

Final Word:

Given Denver’s consistent defensive struggles, especially against scoring point guards, combined with Gilgeous-Alexander’s elite scoring capabilities and stronger performances at home, taking the over on his points total of 32.5 is a strong play to round out the parlay.

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