NBA Finals Best Bets & Champion Pick: Mavs-Celtics Showdown
Ben DiGiacomo
Host · Writer
Luka Doncic Finals MVP (+210)
As much as I’m enticed to back Kyrie Irving to be the Finals MVP at +1800, given the price, I don’t see how the Mavs win it all if Luka Doncic isn’t the best player on the floor. If Luka averages 32 points per game and Kyrie somehow averages 35, so be it, but the Mavs are a much better all-around team when Luka is at his best rather than when Kyrie is at his best. At +188, I get just taking the Mavericks straight up since the value isn’t that much different, but that’s still $22 more on a $100 bet!
Jayson Tatum UNDER 5.5 Assists Per Game in Series (-113)
Jayson Tatum has averaged over 5.5 assists per game this postseason, but I struggle to see that continuing this series. Looking back at the series against the Pacers, Tatum had the ball in his hands more as a facilitator because the Pacers lacked a solid defensive option to challenge him at the point of attack. In contrast, the Pacers had solid defensive options for Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. However, now against the Mavs, even though Tatum should still have a matchup advantage, the Celtics should want Holiday and White to play more on-ball, given the Mavs’ lack of backcourt defense. By no means do I expect Tatum not to put up a few assists, but I think his overall matchup this series makes him a less productive passer.
Luka Doncic 8+ Rebounds in Every Game (+440)
I cannot believe this is priced at +440; what a steal we’re getting! Luka Doncic is fully capable of putting up an absolute stinker on the glass, where he only puts up five or six rebounds, but in his two regular-season meetings against the Celtics, he had 13 and 18 rebounds. With Kristaps Porzingis back, the Mavs are at a size disadvantage, making it much more critical that Doncic camps out around the rim more than usual to be an extra body under the glass. If this were priced at +200, maybe I’d struggle to get behind this bet, but at +440, I don’t know how I can pass this by.
Jaylen Brown 20+ Points in Every Game (+160)
Jaylen Brown is fresh off a dominant Eastern Conference Finals, averaging 29.8 points per game en route to earning ECF MVP honors. Thinking about the Mavericks’ defensive approach, it wouldn’t surprise me if they just let Brown score his 20 points per game, as they would much instead pour their defensive effort toward slowing down Jayson Tatum and even Derrick White. I’m not too worried about Derrick Jones Jr. serving as Brown’s primary defender, so at +160, I love this value.
Mavericks to Win Finals 4-2 (+550)
I’m not trying to discount the Celtics’ regular season success and what it takes for any team to reach the NBA Finals, but I didn’t leave the series with the Pacers ready to declare that they are prepared to walk into the NBA Finals playing their best basketball. I understand that Kristaps Porzingis’s absence was critical, but the Mavericks come into this series much more battle-tested this postseason. As great of a player as Porzingis, it’s hard to re-condition and ramp back up in the middle of the NBA Finals. Dallas gives off extreme “team of destiny” vibes, which I believe in more than I probably should. They’re just playing better all-around basketball right now - by a lot. It was embarrassing for the Pacers to be swept when, in reality, they should have been up 3-1 if they could close a fourth quarter, and now, I struggle to believe that by Porzingis stepping back on the court, everything will be fixed. This isn’t early April basketball. This is the NBA Finals!
The Mavericks will be NBA champions, and at +550, it makes the most sense for it to be completed in six games. The Celtics are too talented to lose in four or five games, and I don’t want any parts of the Mavericks needing to win a Game 7 on the road. Game 6 is the spot, and +550 is incredible value to get behind.
Luka Doncic Finals MVP (+210)
As much as I’m enticed to back Kyrie Irving to be the Finals MVP at +1800, given the price, I don’t see how the Mavs win it all if Luka Doncic isn’t the best player on the floor. If Luka averages 32 points per game and Kyrie somehow averages 35, so be it, but the Mavs are a much better all-around team when Luka is at his best rather than when Kyrie is at his best. At +188, I get just taking the Mavericks straight up since the value isn’t that much different, but that’s still $22 more on a $100 bet!
Jayson Tatum UNDER 5.5 Assists Per Game in Series (-113)
Jayson Tatum has averaged over 5.5 assists per game this postseason, but I struggle to see that continuing this series. Looking back at the series against the Pacers, Tatum had the ball in his hands more as a facilitator because the Pacers lacked a solid defensive option to challenge him at the point of attack. In contrast, the Pacers had solid defensive options for Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. However, now against the Mavs, even though Tatum should still have a matchup advantage, the Celtics should want Holiday and White to play more on-ball, given the Mavs’ lack of backcourt defense. By no means do I expect Tatum not to put up a few assists, but I think his overall matchup this series makes him a less productive passer.
