TST Best Bets: May 24, 2026

Despite the return of De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper for the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, it was the Oklahoma City Thunder bench that was the story. 

Led by Jared McCain with 24 points, the Thunder bench dropped a franchise-record 76 points to help OKC take a 2-1 lead and steal back homecourt. 

The Spurs, who have not lost three games in a row all season, are now on the ropes, as getting swept on their homefloor would lead to a do-or-die Game 5 in OKC. 

Through three games, this series has absolutely met expectations in intrigue, but can OKC seize firm control in the first iteration of a matchup we’re likely to see for years to come?

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First Pick: San Antonio Spurs -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder 

Rundown: This WCF matchup was billed as one between two of the deepest teams in the league, with the Spurs having the Sixth Man of the Year in Keldon Johnson and another 6MOY candidate in rookie Dylan Harper, while OKC has a second unit chock-full of relentless defenders and solid shooters from three-point range. 

In Game 3, we saw a 99th percentile performance from the Thunder bench, with a 14-for-29 shooting performance from beyond the arc as they outscored San Antonio’s bench 76-23. 

However, in Game 4, that depth will be tested, as OKC will now be without Ajay Mitchell due to a leg injury, and Jalen Williams is still questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The Spurs have been the better starting five through this series, and in Game 3 even started the game with a 15-0 run, the second-largest opening run in NBA playoff history. 

With OKC forced to move two of their top bench players into the starting lineup in wake of injuries, expect this to be a spot for a major answer from San Antonio. 

The Spurs have shown they may be the best team in the league at guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, holding him to his second inefficient game of the series in Game 3 with a 6-for-17 performance from the field. 

If they can continue to limit the back-to-back MVP in Game 4, the Spurs should be in prime position to send the series back to OKC 2-2. 

Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

May 22, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) shoots the ball against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second half during game three of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center.

Second Pick: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – Over 219.5 

Rundown: Vegas has not seemed to catch up with the high-scoring nature of this series. 

OKC and San Antonio may be the two best defensive teams in the entire league, but they have smashed the over in all three games this series, combining for at least 231 points in each matchup. 

Between OKC’s newfound reliance on McCain, the only non-plus defender in their rotation, and Fox and Harper’s lingering injuries impacting their defensive capabilities for San Antonio, there are targets for each team to hone in on defensively at this stage in the series. 

This postseason, the Spurs are 8-2 in hitting the over in their last 10, while OKC is 9-1.