NCAAB · 1 hour ago

2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Busters: Top 10 First-Round Most Likely Upsets

David Connelly

Host · Writer

10. #15 Furman over #2 UConn
We feel obligated to throw one long-shot #15 seed into the rankings, so we'll go with the 2/15 matchup out of the East region. Things really started to click for the Paladins after the return of junior forward Cooper Bowser from injury. He ranks in the top 30 nationally in offensive player efficiency, earning KenPom MVP honors in the Southern Conference Tournament Championship victory over East Tennessee State. This team is trending in the right direction. At the same time, UConn has had some recent struggles after losing to Marquette in the regular-season finale and then getting stomped by St. John's in the Big East Tournament Championship game. It's unlikely, but this feels like your best chance at #15 knocking off a #2 in this year's tournament.
1. #11 VCU over #6 North Carolina
This is a tale of two teams trending in opposite directions. VCU has been shot out of a cannon for the past two months, winning 16 of their previous 17, with their only loss coming to Saint Louis, another team in this NCAA Tournament. UNC limps into the field with back-to-back losses to Duke and Clemson and is most notably going to be without star freshman Caleb Wilson due to a hand fracture. Terrence Hill Jr. leads a talented group into Greenville for this matchup, and we like their chances as only a three-point underdog on KenPom.
2. #10 Santa Clara over #7 Kentucky
The knee-jerk concern when you see a matchup between a mid-major like Santa Clara and a blue blood like Kentucky is the Wildcats' size advantage. That isn't exactly the case here, as the Broncos rank 33rd nationally in height and have plenty of size to match Kentucky's. They have also shown the ability to play with notable programs throughout the year, earning wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, and Minnesota in non-conference play. The Wildcats have been wildly inconsistent this year, and Santa Clara could take advantage and knock them out early.
3. #11 Texas/NC State over #6 BYU
Since we don't know who will be in this matchup yet, it's more of a fade of BYU than anything else here. The Cougars were such a fun team up until the grind of conference play, where they flailed to a 4-9 finish in Big 12 regular-season play, all while losing star guard Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury. Despite having one of the most impressive freshmen we have ever seen in the sport in AJ Dybantsa, it often hasn't been enough for BYU to get over the line.
4. #11 South Florida over #6 Louisville
The loss of Mikel Brown has really taken the wind out of the sails for Louisville. They have looked like a different team during both of his injury stints this year, and his availability remains highly uncertain for this matchup. If he doesn't go, South Florida becomes live to win this one outright. Their 11 straight wins entering the tournament are the third-longest active win streak in the country, and they have an incredibly impressive win over Utah State from earlier in the season.
5. #12 Akron over #5 Texas Tech
It's another team that enters the Big Dance shorthanded in Texas Tech, playing without stud forward JT Toppin for the past month. The win at Iowa State after his injury felt like a bit of a red herring, as they have dropped their previous three and are just missing that scoring pop that he provided in the frontcourt. Akron is the MAC team that deserves all of the buzz and hubbub entering the tournament, boasting the best predictive metrics in the league and a 17-1 conference record. Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott are an awesome backcourt that could give the Red Raiders some problems from beyond the arc in this one.
6. #10 Missouri over #7 Miami
Missouri went from potentially playing in Dayton for the First Four to a #10 seed and a very close-to-home opening-round game in St. Louis. We aren't head over heels for this Missouri team entering the madness, but it's difficult to ignore a team that is going to have a clear home-court advantage. Keep an eye on the matchup in the frontcourt between Miami's Malik Reneau and Missouri's Mark Mitchell. It's one of the sneakier premier big-man showdowns in the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament.
7. #13 Hofstra over #4 Alabama
This one was already an intriguing selection, and then some late notable news this week really pushed things over the edge. Alabama point guard and second-leading scorer Aden Holloway will likely not be available for this matchup after being arrested on felony marijuana charges in Tuscaloosa. It leaves the Crimson Tide quite thin in their backcourt and without the scoring power that has aided them so many times throughout the season. The backcourt of Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead is one of the elite duos in mid-major hoops, and they could have a field day against this suspicious Alabama defense.
8. #13 Cal Baptist over #4 Kansas
If you haven't heard of Dominique Daniels Jr. yet, it's time to get familiar. The 5'10" point guard for the Lancers is fifth in the nation in scoring and has absolutely dominated the WAC all season, most recently putting up a 41-point outing against Utah Tech in the WAC semifinals to help push Cal Baptist into the tournament. He is incredibly shifty, a lethal shooter, and a perfect player to become the story of the first weekend in March. Kansas has been far too inconsistent this season, with plenty of questionable performances and concerns about the overall commitment and health of star freshman Darryn Peterson.
9. #13 Troy over #4 Nebraska
After starting the regular season 20-0 and being a legitimate contender for a #1 seed, Nebraska is now limping into this tournament. The Cornhuskers rounded out the year going 6-6 and clung to this protected seed with the hopes of bringing the program its first-ever NCAA Tournament win this weekend. Troy certainly showed some ability to hang with superior opponents throughout the year. They have a double-overtime win over San Diego State, a narrow road triple-overtime loss against USC, and victories over fellow NCAA Tournament participants Furman and Akron. Four of their five starters are averaging double-figures, making them a bit of a difficult scout. Don't be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.
10. #15 Furman over #2 UConn
We feel obligated to throw one long-shot #15 seed into the rankings, so we'll go with the 2/15 matchup out of the East region. Things really started to click for the Paladins after the return of junior forward Cooper Bowser from injury. He ranks in the top 30 nationally in offensive player efficiency, earning KenPom MVP honors in the Southern Conference Tournament Championship victory over East Tennessee State. This team is trending in the right direction. At the same time, UConn has had some recent struggles after losing to Marquette in the regular-season finale and then getting stomped by St. John's in the Big East Tournament Championship game. It's unlikely, but this feels like your best chance at #15 knocking off a #2 in this year's tournament.
1. #11 VCU over #6 North Carolina
This is a tale of two teams trending in opposite directions. VCU has been shot out of a cannon for the past two months, winning 16 of their previous 17, with their only loss coming to Saint Louis, another team in this NCAA Tournament. UNC limps into the field with back-to-back losses to Duke and Clemson and is most notably going to be without star freshman Caleb Wilson due to a hand fracture. Terrence Hill Jr. leads a talented group into Greenville for this matchup, and we like their chances as only a three-point underdog on KenPom.

2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Busters: Top 10 First-Round Most Likely Upsets

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