2026 NIT Quarterfinal Best Bets: Picks for Tonight, Mar. 25

We’ve got a pair of NIT quarterfinal matchups as Illinois State takes on Dayton, followed by Nevada battling Auburn to round out the slate! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

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First Four Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for March 25

Year to Date Record: 33-24 | Units: +7.81 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Dayton -6.5 (-120)

Where to Watch Illinois State vs. Dayton

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: ILST vs. DAY
• Venue: University of Dayton Arena
• Location: Dayton, OH
• Where to Watch: ESPN2
• Date: March 25, 2026
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Illinois State vs. Dayton Betting Odds & Market Value

Illinois State vs. Dayton Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Dayton has been red-hot over the past two months. The Flyers have lost only three games, all of which came against VCU, which went on to win an NCAA Tournament game. Since the start of February, Bart Torvik’s T-Rank has Dayton at 44th, nearly 60 spots ahead of Illinois State. When Jordan Derkack got hurt back in January, it forced head coach Anthony Grant to tinker with his starting lineup. He ended up going with sophomore forward Jaiun Simon in his place, who has now become a permanent member of the starting lineup, even with Derkack now healthy. That change has sparked this recent run of wins, providing them with a bit more physicality and paint presence through his playstyle. Illinois State is on the smaller side, ranking outside the top 300 nationally in average player height. That discrepancy, along with Grant’s newfound optimal rotation, pushes us towards laying the points with Dayton here.

For more College Basketball picks, check out SportsGrid’s predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge: Nevada TT o72.5 (-112)

Where to Watch Nevada vs. Auburn

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: NEV vs. AUB
• Venue: Neville Arena
• Location: Auburn, AL
• Where to Watch: ESPN2
• Date: March 25, 2026
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Nevada vs. Auburn Betting Odds & Market Value

This Auburn defense is incredibly worrisome. They sit 120th in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and they just allowed Seattle to put up their third-highest scoring output of the season against a Division I opponent in their own building. They have allowed opponents to eclipse this total in 12 of their previous 15 matchups. On the flip side, Nevada’s offense has been a steady engine throughout the year. The Wolfpack have gone over this number in seven of their previous eight outings. Some may wonder whether the jump to a power-conference opponent is too much for them to handle at this point. According to KenPom, they have squared off against 19 tougher defenses this season than Auburn’s, making this an intriguing spot to back them to have some offensive success. Take Nevada to get over their team total on Wednesday night.

College Basketball Best Bets: March 25

• Dayton -6.5 (-120)
• Nevada TT o72.5 (-112)

The NIT Tournament has reached the quarterfinals, and there are plenty of betting opportunities throughout March. Best of luck!