NCAAB · 1 year ago

5 Most Overpriced College Basketball Contenders for March Madness

Grant White

Host · Writer

Duke Blue Devils
Current Price: +2200

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 4.3%

It's become a bit more palatable to root for the Duke Blue Devils since Mike Krzyzewski left town, but they are still one of the least likable programs in the country. Thankfully, we all get to root against them as we expect the Blue Devils to fall flat in the NCAA Tournament.

There are more valid reasons for discounting Duke in the big dance. Their defense doesn't stack up against the top schools in the country, and we've seen them struggle outside the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium. But the more significant factor is that they've failed to meet expectations all season. The Blues Devils are a laughable 15-12 against the spread this year, illustrating the difference between perception and results.

More simply, the public constantly overvalues Duke. The Blue Devils' defensive struggles will prevent them from claiming this year's championship, but it won't stop people from hammering them ahead of March Madness.
Connecticut Huskies
Current Price: +550

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 15.4%

Let's get this unpopular opinion out of the way right off the bat. At the current offering, it's not worth investing in the Connecticut Huskies in the National Championship futures market.

Sure, they're 25-3, with one of the top offenses in the country and an elite defense. But it's tough to rationalize such a steep price on a six-round tournament. So that's not to say they don't deserve the distinction as the best team in the country, but there are more profitable stances to take on the Huskies.

UConn remains the preeminent college basketball powerhouse, but repeating as National Champions is no easy feat. It's deserving of a better price than +550.
Purdue Boilermakers
Current Price: +750

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 11.8%

Right behind the UConn Huskies, you'll find the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue has the third-best odds of cutting down the nets at State Farm Stadium on April 8, but like the team they are chasing for the top seed in the Top 25, the Boilermakers aren't worth the investment.

It's not that there are any significant issues impacting their product; the Boilermakers rank just behind the Huskies in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but there is a concerning trend. All three of Purdue's losses have come on the road as favorites. If they want to make a run at the National Championship, they will need to get over the most prominent issue holding them back -- winning games away from home when they are expected to.

We're not saying that Purdue is doomed in the tournament. But we wouldn't be surprised if they made an earlier-than-anticipated exit.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current Price: +2500

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 3.8%

All of you are overvaluing the Alabama Crimson Tide's offense. Bama finds itself in an undeserving position, installed near the top of the National Championship futures board. In the final week of February, you can get Alabama at +2500 at most shops.

People are willing to turn a blind eye to the Crimson Tide's most glaring issue -- their completely ineffective defense. According to KenPom, Alabama ranks 97th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. That puts them behind virtually every program you'd expect them to fall behind, and then some. Grand Canyon, Marist, Bryant, and 93 others have superior defenses.

Alabama is in the pretender category. Don't fool yourself into believing this team should be priced at +2500 to win it all.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Current Price: +3500

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 2.8%

We also don't believe in the Illinois Fighting Illini for many of the reasons we're fading the Crimson Tide. Illinois is bankrupt defensively and will struggle to slow down some of the mediocre teams they will face in the tourney.

This season, we've already seen the Fighting Illini get humbled by some less-than-stellar programs. The 14-14 Penn State Nittany Lions hung 90 on Illinois, as have the Northwestern Wildcats. Moreover, they've lost to Michigan State Spartans, Maryland Terrapins, and Nittany Lions.

Considering their defensive woes and ability to look past the most insignificant teams, there's no way the Fighting Illini live up to their billing. Hard pass.
Duke Blue Devils
Current Price: +2200

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 4.3%

It's become a bit more palatable to root for the Duke Blue Devils since Mike Krzyzewski left town, but they are still one of the least likable programs in the country. Thankfully, we all get to root against them as we expect the Blue Devils to fall flat in the NCAA Tournament.

There are more valid reasons for discounting Duke in the big dance. Their defense doesn't stack up against the top schools in the country, and we've seen them struggle outside the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium. But the more significant factor is that they've failed to meet expectations all season. The Blues Devils are a laughable 15-12 against the spread this year, illustrating the difference between perception and results.

More simply, the public constantly overvalues Duke. The Blue Devils' defensive struggles will prevent them from claiming this year's championship, but it won't stop people from hammering them ahead of March Madness.
Connecticut Huskies
Current Price: +550

Implied Probability of Winning the National Championship: 15.4%

Let's get this unpopular opinion out of the way right off the bat. At the current offering, it's not worth investing in the Connecticut Huskies in the National Championship futures market.

Sure, they're 25-3, with one of the top offenses in the country and an elite defense. But it's tough to rationalize such a steep price on a six-round tournament. So that's not to say they don't deserve the distinction as the best team in the country, but there are more profitable stances to take on the Huskies.

UConn remains the preeminent college basketball powerhouse, but repeating as National Champions is no easy feat. It's deserving of a better price than +550.

5 Most Overpriced College Basketball Contenders for March Madness

Sports Betting

Sportsbook Promos

Social Casinos