CBB Best Bets Today: 5-Star Model Picks & Jan. 29 Expert Value
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
College hoops is back in full swing. With 2026 off and running, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and April. We’ve got you covered for Thursday!
CBB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Jan. 29
Analysis by Gabe Santiago, leveraging the SportsGrid 5-star predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!
SportsGrid Edge: Iowa State -17.5 (-110)
Where to Watch Colorado Buffaloes vs. Iowa State Cyclones
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: CU vs. ISU
- Venue: Hilton Coliseum
- Location: Ames, IA
- Where to Watch: FS1
- Date: January 29, 2026
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
CU vs. ISU Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Colorado Buffaloes (CU) | Iowa State Cyclones (ISU) |
| Moneyline | +1200 | -3000 |
| Spread | +17.5 (-110) | -17.5 (-110) |
| Total (O/U 152.5) | Over: -110 | Under: -100 |
CU vs. ISU Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Colorado Buffaloes (CU) | Iowa State Cyclones (ISU) |
| Direct Win Probability | 6% | 94% |
| Cover Spread (N/a) | No: N/a | Yes: N/a |
| Total N/a Points | Yes: N/a | No: N/a |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
The Colorado Buffaloes (12-8) will have one of their toughest tests of the current campaign when they visit the No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones (18-2) on Thursday evening. Notably, the Golden Buffaloes enter this bid as a 17.5-point underdog, which presents their largest spread of the season.
Iowa State has morphed into a powerhouse over the past five years. That aligns with head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s tenure in Ames. In 2025-26, the Cyclones are extremely well-rounded. They are one of a handful of squads ranked in the top 15 in both offensive (123.4) and defensive (93.6) ratings. However, ISU suffered its first two losses this month. Will they kick it into overdrive from here?
Colorado started the season by winning eight consecutive contests. Since then, the Buffs have been victorious only four times in their past dozen outings. That has led them to a 2-5 record in Big 12 play at this juncture. CU’s defense has been lacking, as they have allowed 78.0 PPG, which ranks 290th in Division I basketball.
It is tough to imagine Colorado getting right in front of a rowdy Iowa State crowd. SportsGrid’s predictive analytics concurs, giving the Cyclones a 96% winning probability. Kalshi has that exact figure at 94%. I am banking on ISU to get the job done, and I like them to cover 17.5 points (before that number gets any higher).
SportsGrid Edge: UC San Diego -4.5 (-102)
Where to Watch UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC San Diego Tritons
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: UCSB vs. UCSD
- Venue: LionTree Arena
- Location: La Jolla, CA
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: January 29, 2026
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
UCSB vs. UCSD Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (UCSB) | UC San Diego Tritons (UCSD) |
| Moneyline | +168 | -205 |
| Spread | +4.5 (-120) | -4.5 (-102) |
| Total (O/U 143.5) | Over: -115 | Under: -105 |
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (UCSB) | UC San Diego Tritons (UCSD) |
| Direct Win Probability | 38% | 62% |
| Cover Spread (N/a) | Yes: N/a | No: N/a |
| Total N/a Points | Yes: N/a | No: N/a |
Out west, prepare for an adversarial clash between the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (13-7) and UC San Diego Tritons (15-6). You may remember the Tritons from last year, when they won the Big West and reached March Madness in their first season of postseason eligibility.
UC San Diego is now in its first campaign under head coach Clint Allard. The Tritons have actually lost three consecutive home games, but they’ll have an advantageous opportunity to bounce back on Wednesday. The Gauchos have not been a beacon of scoring this year, and UCSD has allowed only 71.0 PPG to opponents.
UC Santa Barbara has had some fun seasons on the hardwood, but 2025-26 has not been one of them. The Gauchos have lost five of their past 10 games. Additionally, UCSB has gone 1-3 in four lifetime trips to La Jolla. Santa Barbara will attempt to subvert that narrative, but they’ll need a stronger effort on defense. So far, UCSB is tagged with a 107.4 defensive rating (230th).
The Tritons are currently listed 108th on KenPom, while the Gauchos chime in at 137th. From there, UC San Diego has gone 11-8 (58.0%) ATS. Santa Barbara has not performed well against the number, posting a 5-12 (29.4%) ATS record. That motivates me to lay 4.5 points on the Tritons at home. SportsGrid’s model agrees, tagging UC San Diego ATS as a five-star wager.
College Basketball Best Bets: January 29
- Iowa State -17.5 (-110)
- UC San Diego -4.5 (-102)
Thursday brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the hardwood. Best of luck!
Gabe Santiago is a Senior Betting Analyst at SportsGrid, where he bridges the gap between advanced algorithmic modeling and real-world wagering. Specializing in high-conviction plays, Gabe focuses on the SportsGrid Predictive Model, meticulously cross-referencing its “Five-Star" outputs with situational market data.
