TST Best Bets: April 4, 2026 – Final Four edition
Timothy Hessen
Host · Writer
The day has finally come for the NCAA Final Four.
After 68 teams entered the dance, only four remain, and the teams left standing through the chaos of March have dominated on their path to Lucas Oil Stadium.
With no unlikely Cinderella teams present, Saturday promises to deliver two titanic clashes between four teams all more than capable of cutting down the nets on Monday night.
In No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois, we have the Huskies who just pulled off the most shocking moment of the tournament, upsetting top-seeded Duke in a 19-point comeback.
The Fighting Illini, on the other hand, blazed through March without facing much adversity, winning all four games by at least double-digits.
In the nightcap, we have what some believe are the two best teams in the nation in No. 1 Arizona and No. 1 Michigan, who join Illinois as three teams who reached the final four with a single game decided by less than 10 points.
First Pick: Illinois vs. UConn – Under 139.5
UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts in the first half during a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Rundown: Perimeter shooting has been the preeminent storyline for Dan Hurley’s Huskies, who are looking to capture their third national championship in the last four years.
While senior Alex Karaban has shot 38.7% from beyond the arc this tournament, the rest of UConn’s shooters have yet to find their groove, such as freshman guard Braylon Mullins, who is 5-for-24 from three despite his epic game-winning logo three against Duke.
UConn has yet to make double-digit threes in a game since mid-February, which bodes well for an Illinois defense that is peaking at just the right time.
While the Huskies graded out as the much superior defense through the regular season, the Fighting Illini have held each opponent this tournament to less than 60 points.
Offensively, while Illinois freshman guard Keaton Wagler has been excellent through four games and had a dominant 25-point performance against Iowa in the Elite Eight, the best player on the floor on Saturday is undeniably Tarris Reed Jr.
The UConn senior center is averaging an impressive 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game through the tournament, and handled a matchup in the Elite Eight against arguably the nation’s best player in Duke’s Cam Boozer.
As UConn and its elite defense will look to play through Reed Jr. offensively, expect this matchup to be a low-possession rock fight.
Betting the under is 22-14 for Illinois this season, and 20-18 for the Huskies.
Second Pick: Arizona +1 over Michigan
Arizona guard Brayden Burries (5) celebrates making a three point shot during an NCCA March Madness game against LIU Friday March 20, 2026 in San Diego, California.
Rundown: The debate for the best player of this year’s March Madness is between Tarris Reed Jr. and Michigan senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg.
The aggressive point forward has been unstoppable attacking the rim, and racked up 27 points in Michigan’s dominant Elite Eight victory over Tennessee.
How he matches up with Arizona’s potent interior defense, which ranks second in the country in allowed two-point field goal percentage, will be a major key to deciding who makes it out alive on Saturday.
While the Wildcats are well-equipped to deal with the Wolverines’ biggest threat, they are also a team that is built for big-time matchups like the NCAA Final Four.
As playing in a football stadium brings tougher shooting conditions, Arizona relies on the three-ball less than any other contender, averaging just 16 attempts per game.
Both teams have relied on their elite frontcourts to get them here, but Arizona just matches up better in the ways that matter most.
The Wildcats rank third in the nation in rebound differential, while the Wolverines rank eighth.
After winning the battle on the glass and keeping Lendeborg in check, Arizona’s efficient, high-tempo offense will be enough to outpace Michigan and clinch a spot in the national championship game.
