NCAAF · 10 minutes ago

10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 1

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

10. SMU (-3.5) at Florida State - Monday at 7:30
SMU and Florida State wrap up Week 1 with a Labor Day clash on Monday night in Tallahassee. The Seminoles looked, to be blunt, quite awful on the lines of scrimmage against New Mexico State in Week Zero. Duce Robinson and Ousmane Kromah are both very good skill players, but if the offensive and defensive lines don’t improve quickly, Mike Norvell is getting fired very soon. SMU is a sleeper ACC Championship and College Football Playoff pick. Why then, is the line on this game only 3.5 points in favor of the Mustangs? That scares me, and SMU should be very wary of this trip to Doak Campbell Stadium.
10 Potential Upsets for Week 1
College football is back! Change is a constant, particularly in the modern era of this sport. That means Week 1 has a ton of question marks, and teams that no one really knows what to expect from. The reigning National Champions, the Indiana Hoosiers, are kicking off the 2026 season at noon against North Texas. Indiana is favored by nearly 40 points, and they are not one of the teams we have listed on upset watch. Which ten games could provide potential upsets in Week 1?
1. Toledo at Michigan State (-9.5) - Friday at 8:00
A new era begins in East Lansing on Friday night as Pat Fitzgerald leads the Michigan State Spartans onto the field for the first time. It’s long overdue for Fitzgerald as he returns to the Big Ten after an ignominious exit from Northwestern, and expectations are relatively low in his first season at Michigan State. The Spartans host one of the more consistent MAC programs as Toledo comes to town. Win probability models give Toledo roughly a 25% chance to win outright, and they enter the contest as 9.5-point underdogs. The Toledo Rockets are not without change of their own as lower-level success story Mike Jacobs replaced longtime head coach Jason Candle. Jacobs brought some good FCS players with him, and the Rockets have a veteran offensive line that could lean on the Spartans and grind the clock.
2. Liberty at James Madison (-6.5) - Saturday at Noon
James Madison has turned into one of the better Group of Six programs in the country. Unfortunately for the Dukes, that leads to another reset as Bob Chesney left for UCLA after two seasons. Former Florida head coach Billy Napier replaces him. Napier’s first test is a matchup against Jamey Chadwell and the Liberty Flames. Liberty has a veteran team that Phil Steele projects to be among the most improved teams nationally, and they present a very live underdog. Liberty has a very strong group of running backs and a veteran offensive line, two ingredients that could help pull off a road upset if James Madison’s new pieces are not ready to roll early.
3. Baylor vs. Auburn - Saturday at 3:30
The narrative surrounding this game is clear: Baylor is flailing, and it’s only a matter of time until Dave Aranda gets canned. At the same time, Auburn welcomes new coach Alex Golesh and a host of exciting offensive transfers, and optimism abounds on The Plains. It’s a bit surprising to see the line on this game hovering around a touchdown. What if new Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway is comfortable and plays to his potential? If Aranda can get the best out of Lagway, Auburn will have its hands full, and the Bears could pull off the upset.
4. Boston College at Cincinnati (-7.5) - Saturday at 3:30
Scott Satterfield’s Cincinnati Bearcats have improved from 3-9 to 5-7 to 7-6, but the fans at Nippert Stadium are restless, and Satterfield needs a big season to remain gainfully employed. That won’t be easy as they face a likely big downgrade at quarterback and a largely rebuilt skill position group. Boston College also has a coach on the hot seat, but the Eagles have shown in previous seasons that they can knock off mid-level Power Conference foes early in the season.
5. Tulane at Duke (-7.5) - Saturday at 3:30
Rewind nearly one full year on the calendar. On September 13 of 2025, Tulane hosted the Duke Blue Devils with quarterback Darian Mensah lining up against his former team. Mensah played well, but the Blue Devils fell on the road to the Green Wave 34-27 as Tulane improved to 3-0. In week one of 2026, Tulane and Duke face each other again with both teams nearly unrecognizable from what they were a season ago. Darian Mensah is now at Miami, and Will Hall now coaches Tulane. The Blue Devils are still strong, but Tulane has plenty of talent remaining and is a dangerously capable underdog.
6. Arkansas State at Memphis (-10.5) - Saturday at 7:00
Arkansas State head coach is the butt of jokes to fans of Tennessee, but he’s been pretty solid in Jonesboro, and his Red Wolves enter the 2026 season with Sun Belt Championship aspirations. They have four straight winning seasons and now have a bit of film to study on new-look Memphis after the Tigers knocked off UNLV in Week Zero. It’s worth pointing out that the Rebels largely outplayed Memphis, yet were outgained and had only 24 minutes of possession. If Arkansas State can get competent play at quarterback, the other places are in place to shock Memphis.
7. Clemson at LSU (-10) - Saturday at 7:30
The Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers meet in the marquee matchup of Week One. Dabo Swinney’s Clemson is back in “nobody believes in us” mode, and they are big underdogs against the new villain of college football, Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers. There is a ton of off-field controversy swirling around Baton Rouge, and that could distract his new group of players, plus Clemson is back in a role they previously thrived in: underdogs. Clemson has a new offensive coordinator, and there is optimism they’ll be able to run the ball better as a more cohesive unit than in 2025. If LSU has a slow start adjusting to Lane Kiffin’s system, Clemson has the talent to hang around and make this really interesting.
8. UNLV (-3.5) at Hawaii - Saturday at 10:00
UNLV got more than 300 yards from Jackson Arnold in Week 0, but the Rebels still lost to Memphis, and they are 0-1 and now on the road at Hawaii. That is a difficult trip to make, and teams routinely struggle to play sharp football on the road against the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii showed fight in Week 0, battling back against Stanford on the road before falling apart late. Quarterback Micah Alejado is dangerous, and Arnold has certainly been known to make critical mistakes that cost his team.
9. Louisville at Ole Miss (-7) - Sunday at 7:30
Attention in Oxford was on two things all offseason. First, would Trinidad Chambliss be eligible to play? The answer proved to be “yes”. Second, a general frothing at the mouth in anticipation of the early-season visit from head coach turned enemy Lane Kiffin and his LSU Tigers. Before the Rebels get to boo Kiffin mercilessly, Ole Miss takes on Jeff Brohm’s Louisville Cardinals. Louisville has some home-run-hitting talent (Isaac Brown) and a high-ceiling new quarterback who was rumored to have pushed Julian Sayin hard at Ohio State. If Ole Miss is not completely focused on the Cardinals, Brohm will scheme up a way to trip them up in Week 1.
10. SMU (-3.5) at Florida State - Monday at 7:30
SMU and Florida State wrap up Week 1 with a Labor Day clash on Monday night in Tallahassee. The Seminoles looked, to be blunt, quite awful on the lines of scrimmage against New Mexico State in Week Zero. Duce Robinson and Ousmane Kromah are both very good skill players, but if the offensive and defensive lines don’t improve quickly, Mike Norvell is getting fired very soon. SMU is a sleeper ACC Championship and College Football Playoff pick. Why then, is the line on this game only 3.5 points in favor of the Mustangs? That scares me, and SMU should be very wary of this trip to Doak Campbell Stadium.
10 Potential Upsets for Week 1
College football is back! Change is a constant, particularly in the modern era of this sport. That means Week 1 has a ton of question marks, and teams that no one really knows what to expect from. The reigning National Champions, the Indiana Hoosiers, are kicking off the 2026 season at noon against North Texas. Indiana is favored by nearly 40 points, and they are not one of the teams we have listed on upset watch. Which ten games could provide potential upsets in Week 1?

10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 1

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