10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 9
TJ Inman
Host · Writer
College football is in full swing as we enter the back half of the season! Week 9 presents a strong slate as we now breeze past the midway point of the season. There are so many games that could offer incredible drama this week. Which teams are potentially on upset watch?
1. UCLA at Indiana (-24.5) – Noon on FOX
The UCLA Bruins have won three games in a row, and they are one of the hottest teams in the country since making the move to interim head coach Tim Skipper. Skipper’s Bruins face their toughest test yet, as they travel to play the Indiana Hoosiers. Nico Iamaleava’s status is unknown after a late injury against the Maryland Terrapins, but if he plays, he presents a unique challenge as a running quarterback. Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles had a bit of success running the ball against IU, and Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph had two long touchdown runs against the Hoosiers in the season-opener. This is a super long shot, but if Iamaleava plays, it could at least be an interesting test for the nation’s No. 2 team.
2. Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5) – Noon on FS1
The Northwestern Wildcats are 5-2 after a shutout win over the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday, and head coach David Braun deserves a ton of credit for a surprising rebound season in Evanston. The Wildcats were mildly competitive against Oregon a few weeks ago, and most assumed it was simply a result of the Ducks’ lackluster performance throughout the game. Still, perhaps Northwestern deserves more respect, particularly on defense. Nebraska is also 5-2, but there are significant concerns about the offensive line after they allowed nine sacks to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and I don’t have much faith the ship gets righted this weekend. Northwestern wins an ugly and tense game, sending the Big Red faithful home unhappy.
3. Alabama (-11.5) at South Carolina – 3:30 on ABC
There is very little reason to think the red-hot Alabama Crimson Tide, fresh off wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, would go to South Carolina and lose. Still, college football is a strange game, and there are reasons for the Crimson Tide to be quite wary. Kane Wommack’s defensive system struggles against mobile quarterbacks (Vanderbilt would have really threatened the Tide if not for red-zone mistakes), and South Carolina’s best, and really only, weapon on offense is LaNorris Sellers being unleashed as a scrambler. Alabama has had to get up for big games over and over again, and they have a bye week on the horizon, so if their level of play slips a bit and Sellers can get loose as a runner, the Gamecocks could pull off a shocker.
4. Minnesota at Iowa (-8.5) – 3:30 on CBS
It’s an old-school Big Ten West showdown in Iowa City! Neither team is likely to have much success throwing the ball, and the point total for this game is set at 38.5, meaning it will almost inevitably be close down the stretch. The Hawkeyes squeaked by Penn State last week, but Minnesota humbled Nebraska and had nine sacks. If the Gophers can run the ball successfully and generate some negative plays on defense, they’ll have a shot to pull off the upset.
5. Temple (-6.5) at Tulsa – 3:30 on ESPN+
The Temple Owls have been impressive this season, going 4-3 in the first season under new head coach K.C. Keeler, and they just blasted Charlotte 49-14. The Owls head back out on the road and travel to Tulsa, who are wallowing at 0-4 in the American Athletic Conference. The Golden Hurricanes are just 2-5, and this line is suspiciously low between two teams that seem to be in vastly different spots. A home team getting points and a line that is lower than expected makes this worth paying attention to.
6. Texas (-6.5) at Mississippi State – 4:15 on SEC Network
The Texas Longhorns should not be in any College Football Playoff discussion, but they are still being mentioned. Enough with the Texas Longhorns. “They have so much talent." “They’ll figure out and be a really dangerous team later this season." Even this week, those things are still being said, and I understand the hesitancy to write off Texas, but there’s just no way the Longhorns can be trusted. I also don’t think their offense is actually all that talented. Which skill position player has impressed you for Texas? The receivers do not get separation, and they are not dangerous after the catch, and the running backs don’t look explosive. Arch Manning is not playing well, but he’s not getting much help either. The defense is excellent, but this is not Texas’s year, and they should not be ranked after escaping Kentucky with a very fortunate double overtime win. Mississippi State has been really close to breaking its SEC losing streak (narrow losses to Florida and Tennessee), and it finally broke through with a win over this deeply flawed Texas squad. Give me more cowbell!
7. TCU (-14.5) at West Virginia – 6:00 on ESPN+
The West Virginia Mountaineers have lost four straight games, all by double-digits. TCU is riding high after beating Baylor, and quarterback Josh Hoover is one of the best offensive weapons in the country. That said, head coach Rich Rodriguez has led big upsets in Morgantown before, and he knows the formula to get this done. Step one is to control the clock with a strong ground game that shrinks the number of possessions TCU’s offense gets. Step two is to force Hoover into a couple of mistakes that ratchet up the pressure on the favored Horned Frogs, and step three is to find a couple of unexpected big plays on either special teams or with trick plays. TCU has not been this big of a road favorite since 2020, so it is unfamiliar territory for the Horned Frogs.
8. Michigan (-14.5) at Michigan State – 7:30 on NBC
The Michigan Wolverines are in good form after a comfortable victory over the Washington Huskies, while the Michigan State Spartans are winless in the Big Ten. There’s hope for the Spartans after Jonathan Smith’s squad showed some good fight in a nice effort at Indiana. The Spartans were shredded through the air by Fernando Mendoza, but Michigan’s passing game is nowhere near that level, at least not yet, with Bryce Underwood. On the other side of the ball, Aidan Chiles put together an excellent game against Indiana, and the Spartans do have some capable receivers that could keep Michigan State close in this rivalry game.
9. Tennessee (-9.5) at Kentucky – 7:45 on SEC Network
The Tennessee Volunteers are 5-2 after losing to Alabama last weekend. The Volunteers head to Lexington and play the 2-4 Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky is still battling for Mark Stoops, and they were very close in two home SEC games already this season (Ole Miss and Texas). Tennessee’s defense has taken a giant step backward this season, and while Kentucky’s offense is unlikely to explode for a big day, the Volunteers need to be careful and not sleep on this game.
10. Houston at Arizona State (-7.5) – 8:00 on ESPN2
The Arizona State Sun Devils controlled the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, lost the lead, and then rallied for a late score to pull off the upset. The Sun Devils now have to get back up for another big test, although this one is flying under the radar. Houston is much-improved in year two with Willie Fritz at the helm, and they now sit at 6-1 after wins over Oklahoma State and Arizona. The Cougars are already 3-0 on the road, and they are only allowing 3.5 yards per rush, so they could at least provide some resistance to Tech’s rushing attack.
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