Big Ten Best Bets for Week 7: B1GBets Expert Predictions | College Football Picks

We got back over .500 last week, but ultimately, we just shuffled money back and forth and remained at +2 units for the season.

For Week 7, we’re on all seven games with an ATS and total bet in four of the matchups. In all we have 11 bets, including our second B1GGEST bet of the season.

Last Week: 4-2-1 (EVEN) | Overall: 17-15-1 (+2 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 5-5-1 (EVEN) | B1G Bets: 8-7 (+1 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 4-2 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 9-10-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 7-4 (+3.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-1 (EVEN)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

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REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 3-0-1 | Season: 5-5-1 (EVEN)

OREGON +3.5 Ohio State (FanDuel)

Both of these teams are really good. Great, maybe. Is Ohio State the better team? Probably.

I’m on the Buckeyes every time on a neutral field, a PK game. But it’s not on a neutral field. They’re playing this one in Autzen Stadium, one of the most challenging venues in college football. And the line is 3.5.

As impressive as OSU’s defensive numbers are, who have they played? Akron’s offense is ranked 133rd by SP+, Western Michigan is 104th, Marshall is 74th, Michigan State is 111th, and Iowa is 96th. Remember, we were on the Buckeyes last week, laying a big number and the under on Iowa’s team total. We hit both, but I was surprised at how well Iowa ran the ball (5.8 YPC/sack adjusted) when everyone knew exactly what the Hawkeyes wanted to do.

If they couldn’t dominate Iowa at the line of scrimmage, why should we expect them to dominate Oregon? That’s what it will take to win comfortably. I could buy that Ohio State hasn’t shown everything offensively, but is their D-line playing vanilla?

OSU’s defensive line gets all the hype, but it’s Oregon’s combo of EDGE Jordan Burch (5 sacks, 7 TFLs, 4 breakups, 3 QB hurries) and DT Derrick Harmon (3 sacks, 4.5 TFLs, 3 breakups, 4 QB hurries) who have played like stars this season.

Everything has been easy for the Buckeyes this season, to their credit, but also helped by their opponents. How do they respond if things aren’t so easy on Saturday? This is Will Howard’s (are we sure he’s an upgrade over Kyle McCord?) first real test. How does he respond? How does Ryan Day? Coming off a 14-3 stretch against top-10 teams, Ohio State is 2-4 in their last six versus top-10 teams.

I do not expect OSU to run away from the Ducks, and if you don’t either, why not take the points with the home dog?

MARYLAND -10.5 Northwestern (FanDuel)

Eye test, metrics, however, you want to analyze it, this is a mismatch. The Terps are 21st in EPA margin compared to Northwestern, at 91, which ranks 96th in net points/drive.

In his first season as the starter, Billy Edwards has impressed. He’s been accurate (72.3%) and efficient (8.2 YPP), made plays (11 TD passes, 2 TD runs), and been intelligent with the football (2 INTs). Tai Felton (46 receptions, 642 yards, 5 TDs) is a legit WR1, and Dylan Wade (15.3 YPC) is a weapon at tight end. Most importantly, the Terps are balanced this season, with Roman Hemby (318 yards) headlining three backs averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. The offense ranks 23rd in EPA.

The Wildcats’ defense has had severe issues this season, especially defending the pass. They rank 122nd in dropback success rate and 90th in EPA per dropback. Their inability to win on early downs (114th EPA) is detrimental.

Northwestern UNDER 17.5 (BetMGM)

The Wildcats beat me last week, but I will make them prove it again, this time on the road. Northwestern’s offense is still ranked 100th in EPA (114th rushing, 91st on dropbacks), 114th on success rate (124th rushing, 95th on dropbacks), and 119th in points per drive. Early downs are an issue (1o1st EPA), and 3rd/4th downs are an even bigger problem (127th in success rate).

Last week was the first time in four games against FBS opponents that the ‘Cats scored more than 13 points in regulation, thanks to a couple of big passing plays (38-yard TD & 47-yard pass to the three-yard line). Even with those completions, Jack Lausch averaged a mediocre 6.4 yards per pass, which upped his season average to 5.4.

Maryland’s defense has been mostly solid—25th in EPA (37th rushing, 39th on dropbacks). Corners Glendon Miller (4 INTs) and Jalen Huskey (3 INTs) are ballhawks, while safety Dante Trader Jr. is proven in coverage and as a run defender. They’ve shown they can hold down limited offenses (held UConn to 7, Virginia to 13). It is not always consistent, but I expect a strong showing with an extra week to prepare for Friday’s blackout coming off a loss.

IOWA -2.5 Washington (FanDuel)

This is a Kirk Ferentz special, as the Hawkeyes have won 16 of their past 17 games when favored by a field goal or less. This is a pass at three, but if a three-point win is all I need, I’m on Iowa.

The Hawkeyes win this game in the margins.

Iowa has committed the fewest penalties (12) in FBS, for 20 yards per game; Washington is 119th (45), for 70.7 yards per game. Iowa is 17th in net field position; Washington is 79th. Iowa is ranked 23rd in special teams by SP+; Washington is 130th.

Throw in that the Huskies treated their win over Michigan like the Super Bowl, and now they have to travel east for a noon kickoff. You think I’m exaggerating? They stormed the field as a favorite and had “beat Michigan” as one of their three goals for 2024. Not Oregon. Not Washington State (who they lost to, BTW). Who are both on the schedule. But Michigan. Weird.

IOWA-Washington UNDER 42.5 (BetMGM)

This figures to be a nip-and-tuck game. Both defenses have been excellent: Iowa is 15th in defensive EPA, and Washington is 16th. They’re also tricky to score on: the Huskies are 12th in points allowed per drive, and the Hawkeyes are 30th (including last week versus Ohio State).

Neither team has been especially adept at putting up points: Iowa is 88th in points per drive, and Washington is 79th. I’d give the Huskies the edge on offense, but this might be the worst matchup for them. With their zone scheme, the Hawkeyes want to force you into long drives, knowing the odds are in their favor; they will force a mistake.

The Huskies are last in the Big Ten in Red Zone offense, have committed the second-most penalties in the B1G (45), and have poor special teams (ranked 130 by SP+), which results in poor field position (ranked 112th).

We also like that neither team plays with much tempo: Iowa is 104th in plays per minute, and Washington is 77th. All of this adds up to a low-scoring affair in Iowa City.

ILLINOIS -21.5 Purdue (Caesars)

Purdue is a program in disarray, and head coach Ryan Walters appears to be in over his head. Since beating Indiana State, the Boilermakers have lost 66-7 to Notre Dame, 38-21 at Oregon State, 28-10 versus Nebraska (which should have been much worse), and 52-6 at Wisconsin. Dare I say they’ve quit? Their top recruits are dropping like flies, and their top cover cornerback, Markevious Brown, left the program last week.

Considering Walters continues to employ aggressive man coverage and often leaves his defensive backs on an island despite lacking the personnel he had at Illinois, that’s a significant loss for their defense.  

As it is, their defense is 128th in EPA, 123rd in points per drive, and 90th in defensive success rate. The Fighting Illini have excelled through the air this season as Luke Altmyer has taken the next step as a passer, partly thanks to improved protection. Their EPA on dropbacks is 29th, ranked 34 in success rate. Purdue doesn’t have the corners to stay with Pat Bryant (348 yards, 6 TFs) or Zakhari Franklin, while RB Kaden Feagin is finding a rhythm. Against two of the B1G’s better run defenses, he averaged 5.8 YPC at Nebraska and 4.9 YPC at Penn State in their past two games.

Then there’s the revenge factor. The Illini’s 25-point loss at Purdue was their biggest of 2023, and there is some bad blood between Bret Bielema and his former DC Walters.

Purdue UNDER -13.5 (FanDuel)

The Boilermakers’ offense has been historically bad this season: 132nd in EPA (124th EPA/rush, 132 EPA/dropback), 125 in success rate (118th rushing, 125th on dropbacks), 124th in points per drive, 132 in early downs EPA, and 133rd in 3rd/4th down success rate.

Don’t like analytics? OK, Purdue has scored 10 points or fewer in three of their four FBS games (11 PPG vs. FBS). And now they are without starting quarterback Hudson Card, with redshirt freshman Ryan Browne set to make his first start two weeks after offensive coordinator Graham Harrell was fired. They’ve also slowed things down since then, while Illinois has never been in a rush (111th in plays per minute).

UCLA UNDER -17.5 (BetMGM)

UCLA’s offense hasn’t been Purdue bad, but it’s close. The Bruins are ranked 105th in EPA (106th EPA/rush, 103 EPA/dropback), 129 in success rate (131st rushing, 115th on dropbacks), 133rd in points per drive, 122nd in early downs EPA, and 113th in 3rd/4th down success rate.

It’s unclear who UCLA is starting at QB, but will it matter? The Bruins scored 13 at Hawai’i, 13 against Indiana, 17 at LSU, 13 versus Oregon, and 11 last week at Penn State (thanks to a TD with 16 seconds left in the game).

So, to go over this number, the Bruins will need to score a season-high against a solid Golden Gophers defense, ranked 18th by SP+. Minnesota is 18th in points per drive, 22nd in EPA, and 48th in defensive success rate. They bring it on early downs (14th in EPA) and have one of the B1G’s top pass defenses (18th in dropback success rate, 16th in EPA/dropback), which got a big boost with the return of their top coverman Justin Walley last week. They held USC’s Miller Moss to 200 passing yards (5.3 yards per pass) and intercepted him twice.

Expect a slow-paced, low-scoring affair. Minnesota is 126th in plays per minute, and UCLA is 98th, which means possessions will be limited.

RUTGERS -1.5 Wisconsin (FanDuel)

These teams are evenly matched, so it would be a hard pass if the betting line were three points.

If I were forced to pick a side on a neutral field, I’d lean Rutgers. Three biggest reasons: I trust Greg Schiano more than I trust Luke Fickell, I trust Athan Kaliakmanis more than I trust Braedyn Locke, and Rutgers knows who they are, while it appears Wisconsin is still in between who they were and who they want to be.

The metrics also point me toward the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is ranked 3rd in net field position, 29th in net points per drive, and 41st in EPA margin, compared to Wisconsin’s 108th in net field position, 77th in net points per drive, and 79th in EPA margin.

I’m on Rutgers again, with New Jersey’s State school hosting this one.

RUTGERS-Wisconsin UNDER 44 (DraftKings)

This is another B1G matchup in which both defenses have the edge over the offenses. Rutgers has allowed 18 points or less in four of five games, including all three at home. The Badgers gave up 80 points in consecutive games against Alabama and USC, who have offenses far more explosive than Rutgers. In Wisconsin’s other three games, they’ve allowed 33 points (11 PPG).

I don’t believe in either offense. Wisconsin’s offensive metrics are mostly bad: 82nd in EPA (79th rushing, 63rd on dropbacks), 79 in dropback success rate, and 102nd in field position. Even with improved QB play, Rutgers is 80th in success rate on dropbacks, and they have a tough time converting 3rd/4th downs (75th success rate). They scored 93 points in their first two wins vs. FCS Howard and a terrible Akron team, but since then have had diminishing returns with 26 points at Virginia Tech (5.5 yards per play, 3.5 yards per rush/sack adjusted), 21 points vs. Washington (5.6 yards per play, 4.8 yards per pass), and seven points at Nebraska last week (3.8 yards per play).

In his last two games, Athan Kaliakmanis is 29 of 61 passing (47.5%) for 4.9 yards per pass. Braedyn Locke was a 50 percent career passer (204 attempts) and even in maybe the best game of his career (52-6 win over hapless Purdue), Locke threw two INTs. 

If those two beat me, so be it.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-1 | Season: 8-7 (+1 UNITS)

None.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 4-2 (+3 UNITS)

None.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

Penn State -3.5 USC (FanDuel)

We were a week early on Penn State last week. That’s on me, not them. The Nittany Lions are just the better team. Sometimes, that’s all that matters. But that’s baked into the line as a road favorite. It’s also a bad matchup for the Men of Troy.

What’s USC’s strength? Their offense. What’s the weakness of their offense? Their offensive line. They had trouble with the Wolverines, who aren’t as buttoned up defensively as PSU, and Minnesota last week (17 points), who aren’t nearly as talented.

Penn State’s defense is 8th in success rate (6th in rushing, 23rd on dropbacks), 9th in points per drive, and 17th in EPA (22nd rushing, 6th on dropbacks). Digging a little deeper, USC, while excellent offensively all around, doesn’t do well on early downs (106th EPA). Against a Nittany Lions unit that does (8th in early down EPA), that spells trouble, as getting the Trojans behind the chains is precisely what Tom Allen’s defense wants. They are 9th in defensive success rate on 3rd/4th downs.

EDGE rusher Abdul Carter is a game-wrecker on passing downs, Dani Dennis-Sutton is due for a breakout game, and Zane Durant is one of the quicker D-tackles in the country. Safety Jaylen Reed has stepped up as the leader of the secondary, and sophomore linebacker Tony Rojas is playing like a 5-star. There’s NFL talent on every level of the defense.

Conversely, while improved, USC’s defense is still vulnerable. They’re 98th in defensive success rate (79th rushing, 99th on dropbacks) and 16th on early downs. The Trojans couldn’t contain Michigan’s and Minnesota’s running games. Now, they must deal with Penn State’s—third in the B1G in rushing—two-headed backfield of Nick Singleton (who missed last week with a stomach bug) and Kaytron Allen. Both are physical runners, with Singleton possessing breakaway speed (7.7 YPC).

As if that wasn’t enough for USC to deal with, Drew Allar (79.9%, 9 TDs, 1 INT, 10.7 YPP) is a big step up in quarterback compared to their last four opponents. PSU’s offensive metrics are even better than their defensive numbers: 3rd in success rate (8th rushing, 2nd on dropbacks), 10th in points per drive, and 10th in EPA (22nd rushing, 6th on dropbacks).

We’ve often been on the other side of James Franklin in big games of late, but the Trojans aren’t Ohio State or Michigan of the past three seasons, and the Nittany Lions are riding a 25-game winning streak as a favorite. Expect Penn State to win by at least a touchdown and probably double digits.

This line has steamrolled down to 3.5; I would lay as many as 6.5 in this spot. I’d be shocked if it hits three.