Big Ten Football Week 5 Preview: Picks and Predictions

College Football Week 5 is here. See predictions for every Big Ten game, with analysis on matchups, storylines, and conference impact.

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Predicting Every Big Ten Week 5 Game

USC Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Spread: USC -6.5 | Total: 59.5

Neither team has had an off week, and both played their conference opener last Saturday. Illinois couldn’t have looked worse than it did in Bloomington, while USC’s offense continues to roll through the opposition. Will that continue into this week?

It’s hard to imagine the Illini will play as poorly as they did two weeks in a row. Then we have to factor in USC’s issues on the road, where they were 4-6 from 2023 to 2024, including 1-5 against bowl-bound teams. A win this Saturday would be their biggest on the road since joining the Big Ten.

Expect a lot of points, and considering all the injuries suffered by the Illini on the defensive side of the ball, it’s hard to see how they keep up with the explosive Trojans. Already down their top defensive back, NB Xavier Scott, they had six additional DBs leave the loss with injuries, including both starting cornerbacks and safety Matthew Bailey. USC could be without star WR Ja’Kobi Lane (concussion), but still has leading receiver Makai Lemon and one of the best rushing attacks in college football.

Winner: USC Trojans

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Minnesota Golden Gophers  

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: BTN

Spread: Minnesota -5.5 | Total: 50.5

Rutgers lost their first game of the season last Friday night and is 0-1 in conference play, while Minnesota had an extra week to prepare (also coming off a loss) for its Big Ten opener.

The Gophers have a strong defense and a weak offense, while RU’s offense has been good; their defense, however, has been among the worst in college football.

The Scarlet Knights couldn’t get stops against Iowa (Iowa!) at home, as they blew the lead on three different occasions. I’m not expecting them to get many stops on the road and don’t have the benefit of a strong rushing attack to play keep away. The Gophers bounce back at home to get their first Big Ten win of the season.

Winner: Minnesota Golden Gophers

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Ohio State Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

Spread: Ohio State -8.5 | Total: 52.5

Ohio State had an extra week to get ready for its first road trip of the season, while Washington visited in-state rival Washington State in their final tune-up before opening up conference play. Redshirt freshman Julian Sayin will be making his first career road start at Husky Stadium, where the Huskies have won 22 straight games, including 4-0 in Big Ten play last season.

Washington is a live dog (pun intended) and the betting lines indicate as much. Ohio State was a 13.5-point favorite last week; they opened as a 10-point favorite this week, and the line has since dropped to 8.5 points.

The Huskies may not have Jeremiah Smith, but they have the better quarterback and running back, as well as an elite receiver of their own in Denzel Boston. Dual-threat Demond Williams Jr., who might be the most dynamic quarterback in the conference, will test this Ohio State defense. At home, Washington can keep it close, so why not go all the way and pick the upset? Thankfully, my life doesn’t depend on it.

Winner: Washington Huskies

Indiana Hoosiers @ Iowa Hawkeyes  

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: Peacock

Spread: Indiana -7.5 | Total: 48.5

Indiana looked like the best team in college football last Saturday night, but as Curt Cignetti noted this week, the Hoosiers will face a much tougher test this week. The biggest reason? Iowa’s offensive line, which might be the best in college football. This is old-school Iowa football, featuring a legitimate running game that will challenge IU’s defensive front, which dominated Illinois.  

Here are my concerns for the Hawkeyes. They allowed Rutgers to put up 28 points, and it could have been more. The Scarlet Knights have excellent receivers, maybe as good as IU’s, but the Hoosiers will present the best quarterback, running game, and offensive line the Hawkeyes have seen this season.

The key will be Iowa’s ability to move the ball on offense and give its defense a chance to succeed. Mark Gronowski is coming off his best game, but until proven otherwise, their 38 points last week were about as much a result of a bad RU defense as they were an improved Iowa offense.

Kirk Ferentz teams typically win the games they’re supposed to win. The flip side is that they also lose the games they’re supposed to lose. Since 2021, the Hawkeyes have been the underdog 17 times, and have a 6-11 won-loss record in those games. Their record is even worse against ranked opponents, when they are 3-10 over that stretch. Make it 3-11.

Winner: Indiana Hoosiers

UCLA Bruins @ Northwestern Wildcats

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

Spread: Washington -6.5 | Total: 44.5

At 0-3, UCLA is the only Big Ten team that remains winless. At 1-2, Northwestern is the only other B1G program that has a losing record and doesn’t have an FBS win. The loser becomes the favorite to finish last in the Big Ten (Northwestern also hosts Purdue). This also marks the debut of interim coach Tim Skipper for the Bruins. Neither played in Week 4.

Neither offense is good, but if we had to choose, UCLA would get the nod. They have better players, and the extra week was more needed, as QB Nico Iamaleava was added late in the process and missed spring practice. Neither defense is good, but if we had to choose, the Wildcats would get the nod.

At home, we’ll go with Northwestern, but really, how could you be confident in either team?

Winner: Northwestern Wildcats

Oregon Ducks @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC

Spread: Penn State -3.5 | Total: 52.5

The game of the day, not only in the Big Ten, but all of college football (along with Georgia-Alabama). The Ducks come to Happy Valley with four wins, including a Big Ten road win, albeit it was at Northwestern. That’s a far cry from Beaver Stadium at night with a rabid whiteout crowd in the Eastern time zone.

The perception is that Penn State has been disappointing so far this season, while Oregon has impressed. Although the numbers suggest that these teams have been even through four weeks, the perception has been accurate. These teams are both really damn good, and if you go unit by unit, it’s very close.

Home field advantage is huge in this game, and one of the reasons I’m expecting more from Drew Allar than Dante Moore on Saturday night. Maybe Moore has the higher NFL ceiling—maybe—but for this week, in this environment, I’ll take Allar, who has helped lead PSU to 26 wins in the past two-plus seasons.

The Nittany Lions also get the nod defensively, especially in stopping the run, as Allar won’t have to do it alone. I believe PSU has saved a few wrinkles for this matchup and will play their best game of the season as they try to stake their claim to No. 1 with a big whiteout win.

Winner: Penn State Nittany Lions

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