Buy or Sell: Georgia to Win the College Football Championship?

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Odds Movement

On the BetMGM sportsbook, the Georgia Bulldogs' national championship odds dropped after losing to Alabama in Week 5. The number for the Bulldogs has nearly doubled from +350 to +650. Is this warranted? Is there now some value in the Bulldogs price tag to win the national title this year? With the College Football Playoff field expanding to 12, one loss no longer keeps an elite team out of the dance, which is noteworthy. 

The Case for Buying

As much as the first half against Alabama was one of the more forgetful moments during Kirby Smart's tenure as Bulldogs' head coach, the second half was equally as impressive. The offense figured things out under Mike Bobo with some severe adjustments that worked, while the defense stopped allowing the Crimson Tide to score at will. The Bulldogs weren't prepared from the start against Alabama, and that ultimately was too much to overcome. Still, this roster is loaded on both sides of the football, and if the offensive and defensive lines can get healthier, the Bulldogs can compete with anyone in the country. Add in a quarterback with the skillset of Carson Beck, and it's not hard to get excited about the Bulldogs' price nearly doubling from a value standpoint. The Bulldogs were never going to be perfect in 2024, and this tight loss to Alabama only adds intrigue to their natty price. 

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The Case for Selling

It's not about whether you believe this Georgia team can compete with the best teams in the sport. The Bulldogs roster is as talented as they come, but they still have a gauntlet of a schedule remaining, which could hinder whether or not they even get a chance at capturing the national title. The Bulldogs still have to visit No. 2 Texas on October 19, visit No. 12 Ole Miss on November 9, and follow that up with a home date against No. 4 Tennessee on November 16. Talk about a crazy stretch for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs can likely survive and find their way into the dance with two losses. But three? That's a stretch. As a result, the Bulldogs need only one more slip-up on their schedule, which might be difficult with the level of competition remaining. 

Buy or Sell?

For now, the price of the Bulldogs to win the national championship is slightly appealing. It's not often you can get this type of price for a team with Georgia's talent, even if we'd like the number to be slightly higher. The sweet spot for buying in on this number revolves around +750 to +850, and although that number isn't quite there, the Bulldogs should inspire more confidence in the market over the coming weeks, which should have that number bet down. You can either buy in at this price now or see the number improve before their matchup against Texas, which will be on the horizon in a few weeks. The other time to capitalize would be when, in all likelihood, the Bulldogs suffer their second loss of the year. This is a number worth watching, with a slight lean on buying. 

Buy or Sell: Slight Buy

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