Danny Mogollon

Oregon and Ohio State Lead the Big 10 Conference Race

We’re now in Week 13. We have eight <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/big-ten-football">Big Ten</a> games, with only Oregon and Washington missing the penultimate week of the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf">college football</a> season. The headliner is No. 2 Ohio State hosting No. 5 Indiana, while No. 4 Penn State and No. 25 Illinois go on the road. USC, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska can all punch their bowl tickets, with the Badgers and Huskers going head-to-head in Lincoln.
Last Week: 7-1 (+3.5 UNITS) | Overall: 38-39-1 (+2 UNITS)
Regular Bets: 15-21-1 (-3 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 16-12 (+4 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 6-4 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 22-22-1 (-0.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 15-14 (+3.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-3 (-1 UNIT)
Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!
<h2>REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 4-0 | Season: 15-21-1 (-3 UNITS)</h2>
Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/picks">College Football Picks</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/player-props">College Football Player Prop Picks</a> weekly!
<h2><a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/indiana-hoosiers-ohio-state-buckeyes-scores-odds-picks-props-november-23-2024/785a9a00-cbe5-407a-bc32-97f189cfb97c">Indiana +11 OHIO STATE</a> (ESPNBet)</h2>
The metrics are too close not to take this many points.
Ohio State has been better: ranked No. 1 in net points/drive, No. 2 in EPA margin, No. 5 in offensive success rate, and No. 4 in defensive success rate. But Indiana is very close: ranked No. 2 in net points/drive, No. 8 in EPA margin, No. 1 in offensive success rate, and No. 9 in defensive success rate.
Yes, Indiana hasn’t beaten anyone. But they’ve been dominant with nine of ten wins by at least two touchdowns, including more impressive wins over common opponents Nebraska (56-7) and Michigan State (47-10). Also, we don’t need the Hoosiers to beat anyone (literally) this Saturday.
We assume Curt Cignetti will ignore Joey Galloway’s advice and start Kurtis Rourke, who has earned our trust. Rourke has completed 71.8 percent of his passes for a whopping 10.1 YPA with 21 TD passes to four INTs. OSU has faced two other quarterbacks in the same realm, and Oregon is the only offense with as many weapons as the Hoosiers. IU has five wideouts who have at least 25 receptions, led by Elijah Sarratt (685 yards, 18.0 YPC, 6 TDs) and Omar Cooper Jr. (685 yards, 18.0 YPC, 6 TDs), two of the Big Ten’s more explosive receivers.
There’s some concern about how Indiana’s defensive backs will hold up against Ohio State’s elite receivers, given that Will Howard is having a solid season. The key will be pressure. There’s reason to believe the Hoosiers can win here.
Already down their left tackle, OSU lost center Seth McLaughlin for the season when he tore his Achilles in practice. That’s two of their best three offensive linemen, arguably their two most importable blockers. The Hoosiers have produced the most sacks (31) and tackles for loss (73) of any Big Ten team. Mikail Kamara (9.5 sacks, 14.5 TFLs) might be the best player the average fan has never heard of, with C.J. West and James Carpenter strong on the interior.
A big part of OSU’s respect has been earned—not just this season or under Ryan Day but decades before him with Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel. As elite as OSU has been over the past 20+ years, they are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite against a top-five team since 2000. There will be no shame in beating the Hoosiers by ten points.
Maybe the Buckeyes jump out to a quick 14-0 lead, and I have immediate bet regret, but this line doesn’t respect how well the Hoosiers have played this season. I did prefer it when the spread was a more disrespectful 13.5, but alas, we publish on Fridays, not Thursdays.
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<h2><a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/wisconsin-badgers-nebraska-cornhuskers-scores-odds-picks-props-november-23-2024/2871c1cf-dd9c-4ed2-bc12-7e70ea3b8cae">NEBRASKA/Wisconsin</a> UNDER 43 (BetRivers)</h2>
In breaking down this game, it’s evident that each defense has a significant edge.
When Nebraska has the ball, their offense is ranked 101st by SP+, 95th in points/drive, and 110th in yards per play, compared to Wisconsin’s defense, ranked 20th by SP+, 38th in points/drive, and 52nd in yards per play.
When Wisconsin has the ball, their offense is ranked 89th by SP+, 91st in points/drive, and 98th in yards per play, compared to Nebraska’s defense, ranked 14th by SP+, 58th in points/drive, and 49th in yards per play.
We saw the Badgers hold Oregon to 13 points last week and the Huskers limit Ohio State to 21 points three weeks ago—those are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country, respectively.
A big part of this handicap is I don’t trust either quarterback.
Dylan Raiola has 11 TDs to 10 INTs and is averaging 6.8 YPP with numbers that have dropped to two TDs, three INTs, and 5.7 YPP in two November games. He’s been sacked multiple times in five straight games, with two TD passes to eight INTs over that stretch.
Braedyn Locke has nine TDs to nine INTs and is averaging 6.5 YPP with numbers that have dropped to two TDs, three INTs, and 4.1 YPP (47.4 completion percentage) in two November games. He’s thrown an interception in every start.
Unsurprisingly, the Badgers are 107th in dropback success rate, one spot behind the Cornhuskers ranked 106th.
The only thing either offense is good at is the Badgers’ above-average rush game, but even there, the edge goes to Nebraska’s defense, one of the most formidable units when it comes to stopping the run. Wisconsin has averaged 12 PPG in its past three games, while Nebraska has averaged 15.6 PPG in the past five games.
<h2><a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/northwestern-wildcats-michigan-wolverines-scores-odds-picks-props-november-23-2024/a855ef44-b839-4f31-a166-802b5f821fdd">MICHIGAN -10 Northwestern</a> (BetRivers)</h2>
Michigan is having a down season. A disappointing season. But they are still superior to Northwestern, who is 2-5 in the Big Ten, with all five losses coming by at least 17 points.
This isn’t just about the defensive side of the ball. Of the two, the Wolverines have the better offense: 59th in EPA, 81st in success rate, and 87th by SP+. We know. That’s nothing to puff your chest out about—unless you’re comparing yourself to the Wildcats, who rank 98th in EPA, 124 in success rate, and 122nd by SP+.
The Maize and Blue at least have something to hang their hat on offensively—a run game. Led by Kalel Mullings (740 yards, 5.2 YPC, 8 TDs), the Wolverines are 44th in rushing EPA. Mullings is a powerful runner with some breakaway speed once he gets into the open. He’s complimented by Donovan Edwards, a true home run hitter who has improved his YPC to 4.7 in conference play and running QB Alex Orji. With an extra week to prepare, this is a rested unit at the time of year when rest is most valuable.
Starting QB Davis Warren has been more effective at home—64.9% and 6.4 YPA, with three TD passes and no INTs in his past two home starts. In those two games, TE Colston Loveland had 13 receptions for 179 yards and two TDs.
Loveland is one of several Wolverines projected to go <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/article/2025-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-week-11-edition-round-1-picks-1-32">high in the 2025 NFL Draft</a> who have not given up on the season despite the 5-5 record. Head coach Sherrone Moore called their bye week a “buy-in week,” and we have not seen a lack of effort from top players. It’s a proud bunch who will look to finish the season strong and lock up a bowl bid.
Michigan also has a massive edge in special teams: ranked 19th by SP+ compared to Northwestern’s 90th ranking.
This will be the last home game for many key players from their national championship team. Couple that with the flip of <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/article/michigan-wolverines-to-offer-bryce-underwood-record-setting-8-figure-nil-package">No. 1 overall recruit Bryce Underwood</a> on Thursday, and I expect the “buy-in” to spill over into the stands. The Big House will be rocking more than expected with a bowl game on the line.
<h2>B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 3-0 | Season: 16-12 (+4 UNITS)</h2>
<h2>Northwestern UNDER 12.5 (FanDuel)</h2>
What I love most about the Michigan handicap is how their defense matches up with Northwestern’s offense. This unit isn’t as dominant as they were in 2024 and probably not as good as they should be, but they are still pretty damn good and held Indiana to a season-low 20 points in their last game.
The Wolverines are ranked 18th by SP+, 32nd in defensive EPA, 37th in yards per play allowed, 47th in success rate, and 60th in points per drive. The Wildcats are ranked 122nd by SP+, 128th in offensive EPA, 128th in yards per play, 124th in success rate, and 129th in points per drive.
This might be the worst Power 4 offense. Against the better defenses they’ve faced, Northwestern scored five points at Washington (including a safety), 24 vs. Indiana, three vs. Wisconsin, 14 at Iowa (INT-TD, PR-TD), and seven vs Ohio State. Outside of the game against the Hoosiers, the offense cannot generate points against quality defenses.
Jack Lausch is completing just 51.5 percent of his passes, with one TD pass to four INTs on the road.
The troika of tackles (14.5 TFLs), Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Rayshaun Benny, will suffocate Northwestern’s rushing attack. Edge rushers Josaiah Stewart (6.5 sacks), T.J. Guy (5 sacks), and Derrick Moore (4 sacks) live in the offensive backfield, while linebacker Jaishawn Barham (59 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 4 QB hurries) is coming on strong.
<h2><a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/penn-state-nittany-lions-minnesota-golden-gophers-scores-odds-picks-props-november-23-2024/8a440aea-c9f7-418d-9dd2-8c303e9eb50f">MINNESOTA UNDER 16.5</a> (FanDuel)</h2>
During Minnesota’s run (4-1) over the past five games, Max Brosmer has thrown eight TDs to no INTs. In their wins, his ratio is 10:1, compared to 4:3 in their losses.
Let’s look at the defenses the Gophers played in the past five games: Rutgers is 84th in yards per play allowed, Maryland is 81st, Illinois is 72nd, USC is 66th, and UCLA is 62nd.
Going against Penn State’s defense is an entirely different animal. This elite unit is ranked No. 7 in yards per play allowed, No. 3 in SP+, No. 5 in points per drive, No. 10 in defensive success rate, and No. 11 in defensive EPA.
With his speed and quickness, EDGE rusher Abdul Carter (8 sacks, 17,5 TFLs, 3 BUs, 2 FFs) is an absolute game-wrecker. Against the most comparable fronts Minnesota has faced, the Gophers gave up five sacks to both North Carolina and Michigan.
PSU’s defensive line sets the tone with their disruptiveness with impact players at every level. Linebacker Kobe King (50 tackles, 6 TFLs, 3 sacks) flies to the football, and safety Jaylen Reed (60 tackles, 4 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FF, 1 FR) is a stat-sheer stuffer.
Even though this is their second-straight road game, most starters were pulled late in the third quarter in their blowout at Purdue. They’re well-rested and focused.
In eight games against Power 4 opponents, the Nittany Lions have allowed more than 13 points twice, including 20 points to Ohio State. In Big Ten play, opponents are averaging 13.9 PPG.
The Gophers have some positive metrics but not in the most crucial category, points per drive, where they rank 71st. Field position (78th vs. 19th) and early downs (81st in EPA vs. 13th) will be problems, which doesn’t bode well for Minnesota’s offense.
The fact that PSU is 108th in plays per minute and Minnesota is 126th also plays in our favor.
Maybe P.J. Fleck can keep it closer than the experts think, but it won’t be because of the offense.
<h2>B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 6-4 (+3 UNITS)</h2>
None.
<h2>B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)</h2>
None.

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Our five picks for Week 13 of the college football season include two picks against the spread and three totals, as Big Ten teams play in eight games.

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