College Football Championship Kalshi Odds Ranks Top 10 Contenders
Grant White
Host · Writer
The sports gambling industry is a perpetual arms race between sportsbooks and bettors to gain the ultimate advantage. Thankfully, bettors have a new tool they can add to their belts to stay ahead. Kalshi markets have opened up a new avenue for sports betting, allowing punters to take a “yes" or “no" stake on the sporting events. Fundamentally, this changes the sports betting markets. Instead of levying a position against a sportsbook, bettors can enhance their betting odds in a public forum by wagering their money on a specific “yes" or “no" outcome.
Yesterday, we used this to evaluate the playoff field. Today, we’re digging into how bettors can profit on college football’s National Championship!
The Clear Favorite
As it stands, the Ohio State Buckeyes are the clear and resounding favorite. The defending champs are currently priced as 35% favorites to claim this year’s natty, a slight advantage over traditional betting markets. Currently, Ohio State is hovering around +180, yielding an implied probability of 64.3%.
The Kalshi market gives the Buckeyes a slight advantage relative to sportsbooks, but those odds will continue to fluctuate as we race toward the end of the season. With that, bettors need to monitor both lines closely to determine the right entry point over the coming weeks.
Second Tier
Three teams are sitting just below Ohio State, ranking in the second tier. The Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies, and Georgia Bulldogs have all proven their worth as legitimate playoff threats. Not surprisingly, the undefeated Hoosiers sit above the other two programs. Kalshi has Indiana’s chances of claiming the National Championship at 16%. Texas A&M and Georgia are close behind, currently priced at 11% and 10% respectively.
That aligns with those teams’ sportsbook odds. Indiana is priced at +500, Texas A&M at +750, and Georgia at +1000. Working backwards, the Bulldogs’ betting odds reveal the most substantive advantage. Listed at 10% on Kalshi, the implied probability of +1000 means bettors only need to win 9.1% of their bets to become profitable. In the betting world, that’s a sizeable advantage worth exploiting.
While less pronounced, there are also advantages to be had with the Aggies and Hoosiers. Texas A&M’s National Championship odds equate to an 11.8% implied probability. Likewise, Indiana’s odds give them a 16.7% chance to win the title. While small, it offers bettors an inroad to becoming more profitable as they tie their position to the more favorable odds.
The Best of the Rest
While the first four teams have a clear advantage, a handful of contenders are still in the running.
Led by Notre Dame (8%), Texas Tech (7%), Oregon (6%), and Alabama (6%), those programs find themselves in the tertiary tier of contenders. Comparing those odds to sportsbooks, Notre Dame (+950) yields the most pronounced betting advantage. At +950, bettors would need to win 9.5% of their bets to become profitable.
Similarly, Oregon’s National Championship +1300 odds reveal a more modest advantage than the Kalshi offerings, with an implied probability of 7.1%.
Finally, Texas Tech and Alabama’s identical +1500 odds have a 6.3% implied probability. That leaves a 1.3% edge on the Red Raiders and a -0.3% disadvantage on the Crimson Tide.
Rounding Out the Top Ten
Ole Miss and Oklahoma round out the top 10. Kalshi gives the Rebels a 4% chance of winning the National Championship, with the Sooners close behind at 3%.
Relative to the futures board, Oklahoma’s +3000 odds (3.2% implied probability) are almost directly proportional to the Kalshi market. There is a more substantive discrepancy on the Rebels’ odds of +1700, yielding an implied probability of 5.6%.
Final Thoughts – Kalshi Market Insights
The Kalshi market is a valuable resource to tap into. Bettors can assess teams’ chances relative to the traditional sports betting market. In doing so, they can assess liability and determine the most profitable Avenue to become a long-term successful bettor. The National Championship betting board is a prime example, and bettors should plan their moves accordingly.
Stay with SportsGrid for exclusive insights from prediction markets like Kalshi as the college football season wraps up and the playoff picture sharpens.
