NCAAF · 1 year ago

College Football Coaches Facing Pressure-Packed Seasons

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

10. Dabo Swinney - Clemson Tigers
Dabo Swinney will not be feeling job security pressure. He has done enough at Clemson to finish his story with the Tigers how he chooses to. He will be feeling a different type of pressure, which comes from his belief that he can accomplish his and Clemson’s goals by doing things differently than everyone else. Clemson joined the military academies as the only school not to take a single transfer from the portal. There are now two ways to build your roster, and Swinney is purposefully only using one of the means to improve. He has publicly said that he believes in his players and his roster and their ability to develop the high school players they land. Can Clemson win the ACC and return to the College Football Playoff, beating schools like transfer-heavy Florida State in the process? Swinney will feel vindication if they can. If the Tigers stumble to an 8-4 or 9-3 season and lose out to the Seminoles and Hurricanes, the past two seasons will prove that Swinney was wrong in his approach. If that's the case, he will face intense pressure from Clemson boosters to change his philosophy.

Clemson 2024 Win Total: 9.5
1. Mario Cristobal - Miami Hurricanes
Mario Cristobal was a much-hyped hire by the Miami Hurricanes before the 2022 season. He was an excellent recruiter who fit perfectly in the Miami community and was “one of their own” after playing for the Hurricanes in the early 1990s. Take a deeper look at Cristobal’s on-field results; it is easy to see why fans might be concerned about the long-term future. Cristobal went 27-47 at Florida International, 35-13 at Oregon, and is now just 12-13 after two seasons at Miami. His clock management has come under fire, including an embarrassing ending last season where a decision to try and get a running back to 100 yards instead of taking a knee backfired, resulting in a late loss. His record with Oregon was good, but it looks less impressive considering how Dan Lanning has performed since taking over. Miami has invested heavily in the transfer portal, bringing in multiple impact players, including quarterback Cam Ward. High school recruiting is going well. Cristobal needs a solid season to prove he’s more than just a coach who can amass talent and do less with it.

Miami 2024 Win Total: 9.5
2. Billy Napier - Florida Gators
Staying in the Sunshine State but moving to Gainesville, the seat in The Swamp is getting hot for Billy Napier, and there is no shortage of crunch games for the Florida Gators in 2024. Florida went 6-7 in his first season in charge and dropped to 5-7 with no bowl game in 2023. The offense showed some promise but would make critical mistakes, and the defense was an abject disaster toward the tail end of the season. Napier is known as a strong on-field coach, but the Gators often looked disorganized and have had several undisciplined penalties that get blamed on poor coaching. Napier is recruiting decently in the high school ranks, including snagging five-star quarterback DJ Lagway. Florida could show a lot of progress, but will it matter if they stumble to a 5-7 record and miss another bowl game due to a brutal schedule? The win total for UF is posted at 4.5, and it will take a clear “over” to remove Napier from hot-seat discussions.

Florida 2024 Win Total: 4.5
3. Ryan Day - Ohio State Buckeyes
Ryan Day is not on the hot seat, and it would take a massive off-field scandal to get Ohio State’s administration to look to move on from the highly successful head coach. Still, Day is under as much pressure as anyone this season. Ohio State fans and boosters are desperate to win the Big Ten again, breakthrough with a national title, and unseat the Michigan Wolverines in their bitter rivalry. Ohio State brought back a lot of players who could have gone to the NFL. They continue to recruit as well as anyone in the country, and they supplemented the roster with some star transfers. Michigan comes to Columbus this season and will be fielding a largely rebuilt starting group plus a first-year head coach. If Day drops that game or fails to truly threaten for a national title, he won’t get fired, but it will be very uncomfortable for him in Columbus.

Ohio State 2024 Win Total: 10.5
4. Kalen DeBoer - Alabama Crimson Tide
You can’t replace the legendary Nick Saban and coach at Alabama without facing tremendous pressure, particularly in your first year on the job. Kalen DeBoer has won everywhere he has coached: 67-3 at Sioux Falls, 12-6 at Fresno State, and 25-3 at Washington. He is a proven offensive wizard. However, now he's in the South. He is in the SEC. He is coaching at Alabama, one of the most high-demand positions in college football, and is following the greatest collegiate football coach in history. Alabama has a lot of talent, but they also have questions at wide receiver and in the secondary. Do they have enough to live up to the high standards in Tuscaloosa? DeBoer will be successful in Alabama, but he will face extraordinary pressure every step of the way.

Alabama 2024 Win Total: 9.5
5. Lane Kiffin - Ole Miss Rebels
Expectations are high in Oxford, and high expectations bring intense pressure. Lane Kiffin has been a head coach for a dozen seasons. His teams have finished in the top ten twice (2011 at USC and 2023 at Ole Miss) and have never been higher than sixth in the final AP poll. The 2024 version of the Ole Miss Rebels is arguably the most talented team in a very long time in Oxford. The Rebels have a very favorable schedule by SEC standards, and with the expanded College Football Playoff in place, they are expected to earn a spot in the 12-team field and win at least one game once there. Kiffin has all the pieces in place to have the best campaign of his coaching career, but if they can’t live up to the hype this season, how does the fanbase react? Opportunities like this do not come around often for Ole Miss, and there will be a lot of pressure to take advantage while the window is open.

Ole Miss 2024 Win Total: 9.5
6. Lincoln Riley - USC Trojans
Lincoln Riley leaving Oklahoma for USC was seen as a surprise. Still, it was also viewed as a home-run hire for the Trojans and a move that would catapult the “Men of Troy” back into the national spotlight and have them competing for national titles relatively quickly. Through two seasons, things have not gone according to plan. After going 55-10 in five seasons in Norman, Riley is 19-8 with USC, and they were only 8-5 (5-4) last season with the best quarterback in the country. Caleb Williams is gone, and Riley has publicly acknowledged that his program needs a culture shift on the defensive side of the ball. He brought in a new defensive coordinator to try and fix things as they head to the Big Ten. USC is losing commitments in their 2025 class and is currently ranked outside of the top 20 with rumblings that the Trojans’ NIL collectives are not buttoned-up operations. Another season outside of playoff contention will have people asking uncomfortable questions, and the Trojans have a fierce schedule that will make anything above eight wins a real accomplishment.

USC 2024 Win Total: 7.5
7. Dave Aranda - Baylor Bears
Perhaps no power conference coach faces more immediate job security than Baylor head coach Dave Aranda. He went to Waco as a first-time head coach after a great stint as a defensive coordinator with LSU. The first year was very poor, but Year 2 saw Baylor go 12-2 and win the Big 12, earning a trip to the Sugar Bowl. They slid back to 6-6 and lost the Armed Forces Bowl in 2022, and then the bottom fell out in 2023, and the Bears went just 3-9. That means in four seasons, Aranda is 23-25 and is six games under .500 in the Big 12. With Texas and Oklahoma exiting, a power vacuum is waiting to be filled at the top of the new Big 12. Nearly every program in the league sees an opportunity, and Baylor will not want to waste time if they feel like Aranda cannot get them to the top of the league. The Bears are projected to finish near the bottom of the highly competitive conference, and if that becomes a reality, Aranda’s tenure will be over. There will be many one-score games each week in the Big 12, and the pressure to survive will be intense in Waco.

Baylor 2024 Win Total: 5.5
8. Pat Narduzzi - Pitt Panthers
Pat Narduzzi is probably not in trouble at Pittsburgh, but he is facing pressure to get things figured out before they start looking elsewhere. His tenure began in 2015, and Pittsburgh had back-to-back 8-5 seasons before missing a bowl game in 2017. They have been a very middling program except for a strong campaign in 2021 with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, going 11-2 before losing the Peach Bowl. Since that season, the offense has completely fallen apart, and Narduzzi appears incapable of fixing it. Pittsburgh was 3-9 in 2023, and the quarterback play was painful. The Panthers have a manageable schedule with no games against projected ranked teams until November 16. They avoid Miami, Florida State, and North Carolina State, and a competent team could go bowling easily with this schedule. Things could get interesting if Narduzzi cannot win these “toss-up” games against teams like Syracuse, SMU, Cal, and Virginia.

Pittsburgh 2024 Win Total: 5.5
9. Luke Fickell - Wisconsin Badgers
Luke Fickell is on this list because he leads one of the most consistent programs in the country, and they barely eeked out a postseason berth in 2023. The Wisconsin Badgers hired Fickell at the end of the 2022 season and have high expectations for what he can bring. Wisconsin’s identity was forged under Barry Alvarez. Fickell quickly altered it, bringing in offensive coordinator Phil Longo to install an air raid attack that was totally different from what fans usually see in Madison. Change is acceptable, but if it does not work in a reasonably quick fashion, nostalgia permeates in a hurry. The Badgers still are expected to have a good defense, but they rely heavily on mistake-prone quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to lead the pass-heavy attack. The schedule is demanding, with games against Alabama, at USC, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Iowa, Oregon, and at Nebraska. Wisconsin’s win total is only 6.5, and if the Badgers struggle to make a bowl game for a second straight season, Fickell will be feeling some heat.

Wisconsin 2024 Win Total: 6.5
10. Dabo Swinney - Clemson Tigers
Dabo Swinney will not be feeling job security pressure. He has done enough at Clemson to finish his story with the Tigers how he chooses to. He will be feeling a different type of pressure, which comes from his belief that he can accomplish his and Clemson’s goals by doing things differently than everyone else. Clemson joined the military academies as the only school not to take a single transfer from the portal. There are now two ways to build your roster, and Swinney is purposefully only using one of the means to improve. He has publicly said that he believes in his players and his roster and their ability to develop the high school players they land. Can Clemson win the ACC and return to the College Football Playoff, beating schools like transfer-heavy Florida State in the process? Swinney will feel vindication if they can. If the Tigers stumble to an 8-4 or 9-3 season and lose out to the Seminoles and Hurricanes, the past two seasons will prove that Swinney was wrong in his approach. If that's the case, he will face intense pressure from Clemson boosters to change his philosophy.

Clemson 2024 Win Total: 9.5
1. Mario Cristobal - Miami Hurricanes
Mario Cristobal was a much-hyped hire by the Miami Hurricanes before the 2022 season. He was an excellent recruiter who fit perfectly in the Miami community and was “one of their own” after playing for the Hurricanes in the early 1990s. Take a deeper look at Cristobal’s on-field results; it is easy to see why fans might be concerned about the long-term future. Cristobal went 27-47 at Florida International, 35-13 at Oregon, and is now just 12-13 after two seasons at Miami. His clock management has come under fire, including an embarrassing ending last season where a decision to try and get a running back to 100 yards instead of taking a knee backfired, resulting in a late loss. His record with Oregon was good, but it looks less impressive considering how Dan Lanning has performed since taking over. Miami has invested heavily in the transfer portal, bringing in multiple impact players, including quarterback Cam Ward. High school recruiting is going well. Cristobal needs a solid season to prove he’s more than just a coach who can amass talent and do less with it.

Miami 2024 Win Total: 9.5

College Football Coaches Facing Pressure-Packed Seasons

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