College Football Coaching Carousel: Kalshi’s Power 4 Predictions

The 2025 college football season is approaching the College Football Playoff. Beyond the games on the field, a fascinating coaching carousel is unfolding, with several high-profile openings already on the market. Market research tool Kalshi has predictions for each major opening. Who are they predicting to land the head coaching roles at places like LSU and Florida?

Stay with SportsGrid for exclusive insights from prediction markets like Kalshi as the college football season wraps up and the playoff picture sharpens.

LSU Tigers – Kalshi Predicts: Joe Brady (15% chance)

Lane Kiffin (33%) actually has the highest chance here, but he is a stronger favorite to end up at Florida, and despite the wishes of many fan bases, he can only coach one school at a time. As a result, the most likely available candidate according to Kalshi is current Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Of course, Brady was with LSU for the Tigers’ most recent national title as he helped orchestrate a record-setting offense with Joe Burrow and an all-star cast of offensive weapons. His time in the NFL has been hit-or-miss. Brady has also been surpassed by Eli Drinkwitz (20%), who, like Kiffin, is going elsewhere.

Other Candidates: Jon Sumrall (13%), Nick Saban (6%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Buy – There’s value.

Florida Gators – Kalshi Predicts: Lane Kiffin (52% chance)

Lane Kiffin could end up staying at Ole Miss, but if he makes the jump, Kalshi predicts he ends up in Gainesville. Kiffin has had a wild career, but this is the first time he’s really been the “belle of the ball" and truly coveted by multiple schools. After rehabilitating his poor image at Florida Atlantic, Kiffin made the jump to Ole Miss, has done really well in Oxford, and is now wanted by LSU and Florida. If it’s not Kiffin, Kalshi has Washington head coach and Florida alumnus Jedd Fisch is an excellent option.

Other Candidates: Jedd Fisch (19%), Eli Drinkwitz (17%), Brent Key (7%), John Sumrall (4%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Sell – Price is too high. 

Penn State Nittany Lions – Kalshi Predicts: Eli Drinkwitz (37% chance)

The Penn State Nittany Lions canned James Franklin early this season, and the search from athletic director Pat Kraft has cast a wide net. They reportedly pursued Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko, but he signed an extension to remain in College Station. The most realistic sitting head coach appears to be Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz, and he’s at the top of the market on Kalshi. This could get upended if Alabama gets stunned by Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

Other Candidates: Brent Key (19%), Bob Chesney (14%), Kalen DeBoer (6%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Buy – PSU needs a big win. 

Arkansas Razorbacks – Kalshi Predicts: Ryan Silverfield (33% chance)

Arkansas moved on from Sam Pittman midway through this season and has given Bobby Petrino a chance to earn the full-time gig (again). Still, the results have pointed towards a new direction being necessary in Fayetteville. This job search truly appears up in the air after a failed pursuit of James Franklin. With the former PSU head coach signing on in Blacksburg to coach Virginia Tech, Kalshi now has Ryan Silverfield of Memphis as a narrow favorite to land the position as the “Head Hog." Jon Gruden (please let this happen) and North Texas’ Eric Morris are also on the list.

Other Candidates: Jon Gruden (21%), Eric Morris (19%), Alex Golesh (13%), Bobby Petrino (10%), Jon Sumrall (9%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Sell – Considering Gruden and Petrino are on the list, it’s not a market we want to jump into.

Stanford Cardinal – Kalshi Predicts: Frank Reich (20% chance)

Former NFL quarterback Andrew Luck is reportedly making this hire, and the search has been marked by very little information. Current interim coach Frank Reich is listed as the favorite, but that’s likely only because there’s no clear direction elsewhere. The Cardinal are just 3-7 and only 2-5 in the weak ACC, so it’s hard to justify giving Reich the full-time job. Coordinators like Pep Hamilton, Greg Roman, and Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi join Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson on the list.

Other Candidates: Pep Hamilton (11%), Greg Roman (10%), Tosh Lupoi (10%), Spencer Danielson (6%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Sell – We don’t see it. Reich is a placeholder. 

UCLA Bruins – Kalshi Predicts: Tommy Rees (21% chance)

Tommy Rees has never been a head coach, but he has a wide range of experience after playing quarterback for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and is considered a bright, young riser in the profession. Rees was an offensive coordinator at Notre Dame and Alabama and has been a quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns for the past two seasons. Granted, the results in Cleveland have not exactly been promising, but he’s the top candidate according to Kalshi. As for OC Jerry Neuheisel, he’s at 4% and trending downward.

Other Candidates: Tony White (13%), D’Anton Lynn (9%), Jason Eck (8%), Kalani Sitake (8%), Jimbo Fisher (8%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Sell – There are better options.

Oklahoma State Cowboys – Kalshi Predicts: Eric Morris (25% chance)

The Oklahoma State Cowboys opened their position earlier than anyone else, firing Mike Gundy after only a few lopsided games in the 2025 campaign and beginning a search. It’s hard to gauge just how committed OK State will be to succeeding on the gridiron moving forward, but this could be an excellent job that could compete in the Big 12 if boosters are ready to step up. Atlanta Falcons assistant and former Cowboy Zac Robinson (16%) was the favorite on Wednesday, according to Kalshi; however, the winds have shifted towards Eric Morris of North Texas, with Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein (who will be a candidate for Missouri if Drinkwitz moves on) next on the list.

Other Candidates: Colin Klein (13%), G.J. Kinne (10%), Ben Arbuckle (8%)

Buy or Sell Brady: Buy – But it makes too much sense. 

Kalshi odds are from the time of publication and subject to change.