College Football Week 11 Picks: Best Bets and Predictions

It’s Week 10 of College Football, and every Tuesday we kick things off with our best bets of the week!

Check out what bets we’re targeting with this week’s selections!

Where to Watch(3) Texas A&M Aggies vs (19) Missouri Tigers

Stadium: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field
Location: Columbia, MO
Where to Watch: ABC
Time: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: TA&M -7.5 | Total: 47.5
Moneyline: TA&M -275 | MIZZ +220

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The SEC has turned into a war of attrition, with a handful of teams still in the running for the Championship Game. The Texas A&M Aggies are the frontrunners heading into Week 11, but they face a daunting challenge trying to escape Faurot Field with a win over the Missouri Tigers.

Scheduling-wise, this is a bad spot for the Aggies. Texas A&M embarks on its third straight road game against a Mizzou squad that has been resting at home for two weeks. More concerning, we’ve seen an imbalance in the Aggies’ underlying metrics, pointing to inevitable regression. Over their last three games, the SEC leaders have seen a decrease in their offensive production, corresponding with increased scoring. Assuredly, scoring will start to erode as those metrics balance over the coming games.

Conversely, we’re predicting more wins from the Tigers over the coming weeks. They continue to deploy an elite defense, holding their last four conference opponents to an average of 310.0 yards per game while outgaining all but one of them. But with losses in two of its previous three games, Missouri’s results don’t reflect its on-field dominance.

Mizzou will be up to the challenge in Week 11. Already keeping Alabama and Vanderbilt in check, the Tigers have demonstrated the ability to stand up to top offenses. Considering the anticipated direction of both programs, we’re taking our shot with the Tigers’ moneyline on Saturday.

Best Bet: Missouri +220

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks every week!

Where to Watch Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs (12) Virginia Cavaliers

Stadium: Scott Stadium
Location: Charlottesville, VA
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: UVA -6.5 | Total: 48.5
Moneyline: UVA -255 | WAKE +205

It’s time to start taking the Virginia Cavaliers more seriously. While they lost to NC State earlier this season, that game wasn’t scheduled as a conference showdown. With that, the Cavaliers remain a perfect 5-0 in ACC action and take on an overmatched Wake Forest Demon Deacons squad on Saturday.

Wake Forest is more competitive than we’ve seen in recent seasons, but it remains at the back of the pack in the ACC. Sporting a 2-3 record in conference play, the Demon Deacons are coming off an unflattering loss to Florida State. Now embarking on their second road game in as many weeks, and their fourth road matchup over their last five outings, Wake will be running on fumes against a top-tier Virginia squad.

The Cavaliers’ offense has been on another level this season. They rank 27th in the FBS in total offense, which has them scoring the 18th-most points per game in the country. Virginia has a balanced attack, gaining 242.4 passing and 186.7 rushing yards per game, which will keep the Demon Deacons on their toes from start to finish. Combined with their Top 50 defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in three straight, the Cavaliers are set up for success at home in Week 11.

The gap between these teams is much broader than the betting line implies. Home-field advantage is monumental, especially considering Wake Forest’s road woes. We’re betting Virginia easily covers in Week 11.

Best Bet: Virginia -6.5

Have all the intel you need? Free, actionable information is just one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

Where to Watch Texas State Bobcats vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Stadium: Cajun Stadium at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
Location: Lafayette, LA
Where to Watch: NBC
Time: Saturday 5:00 p.m. ET
Spread: TXST -2.5 | Total: 64.5
Moneyline: TXST -142 | UL +118

We’re turning our attention to the Group of Five for our final selection, highlighting an unassuming Sun Belt showdown with a decisive betting edge. The betting market has the Texas State Bobcats out in front of the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, but the visitors should have no problem running away with this one at Cajun Stadium.

Texas State has unleashed its offense this season. They are churning out north of 470 yards per game, a benchmark the Bobcats have soared past in recent weeks. They have recorded 519 or more yards in three of their previous four, yielding a robust average of 500.8 yards per game across that sample. Moreover, the Bobcats have outgained their opponents in all but one of those outings, a feat that is contraindicated in their 0-4 record.

While Texas State has abandoned its defensive responsibilities, it won’t be challenged by the Ragin’ Cajuns. Louisiana ranks 105th in total offense, coinciding with the 90th-ranked scoring offense in the FBS. Additionally, they lack the defensive faculties to stymie the Bobcats’ offense. UL gives up an average of 29.3 points and 396.3 yards per game, both of which will increase dramatically after this weekend.

The Bobcats will run roughshod over the Ragin’ Cajuns in Week 11. We’re betting this line will be on the move as we approach kick-off, meaning purveyors of closing line value will want to act swiftly.

Best Bet: Texas State -2.5

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.