College Football Week 11 Picks: MAC-Tion Wednesday Night Best Bets

Mid-week MAC-tion is back, baby! Tonight’s slate features another pair of conference showdowns, with a trio of teams still in the running for a spot in the Championship Game.

Check out what bets we’re targeting with our Week 11 Wednesday night selections!

Where to Watch Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals

Stadium: Scheumann Stadium
Location: Muncie, IN
Where to Watch: ESPNU
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: BALL -2.5 | Total: 47.5
Moneyline: BALL -126 | KENT +108

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Week 11 will be an inflection point for either the Kent State Golden Flashes or the Ball State Cardinals. Both MAC contenders are sitting with identical 3-5 records, including 2-2 in conference play. With four teams tied with 4-1 records, the victor of tonight’s intra-conference showdown keeps their hat in the ring for a spot in the Championship Game. The Cardinals are short home favorites, but sharp bettors will have this line moving in the opposite direction.

Altogether, Ball State hasn’t looked good this season, but its offense has been absolutely abysmal. So far this season, they’re putting up 129.8 passing and 143.0 rushing yards per game, the fourth-worst total offense in the country. As expected, the Cardinals have been unable to translate that limited success to points, recording just 16.4 per game, while being held to seven or fewer in two of three.

Granted, Kent State’s total offensive ranking isn’t any better than its Week 11 counterparts. Still, they are trending positively over their recent sample. The Golden Flashes have won two of their last three, totaling 66 points in those victories. Further, they’ve put up above-average yardage in each of those contests. Defensive concerns continue to plague Kent State, but a crumbling Ball State attack won’t challenge the Golden Flashes.

Momentum is carrying these teams in opposite directions. Ball State is floundering at a time when the Golden Flashes’ offense is coming together. We expect those paths to lead these teams in different directions on Wednesday. We see the most value in backing Kent State on the moneyline.

Best Bet: Kent State +108

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Where to Watch Northern Illinois Huskies vs Toledo Rockets

Stadium: Glass Bowl
Location: Toledo, OH
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: TOL -14.5 | Total: 42.5
Moneyline: TOL -750 | NIU +530

Consistency has hampered the Toledo Rockets in 2025. Formerly a top MAC contender, the Rockets sit at a disappointing 2-2 in conference play, looking to salvage the final few weeks of the season and climb back in the championship race. Thankfully, Toledo gets a late-season boost as it hosts the lowly Northern Illinois Huskies at the Glass Bowl on Wednesday night.

Toledo’s offense has fallen well short of expectations. Despite averaging close to 440 yards per game, balancing their passing and ground game, the Rockets are sitting in the middle of the pack with a ho-hum 31.8 points per game. More concerningly, they’ve fallen below 23 points in two of their past three. At face value, the deteriorating offensive play is cause for concern. However, the underlying metrics point to a far different conclusion.

While their scoring potential has evaporated, the Rockets have maintained their elite offensive production. They’ve put up 429 yards in two of three, despite only one of those games coming at home. Undoubtedly, sustained offensive production points toward an inevitable increase in scoring, particularly against a Northern Illinois squad that is playing on the road for the third time in four games.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see this spread land exactly on 14, casting a doubt on whether Toledo is worth the investment at this number. However, with their predicted scoring increase, we see a decisive edge in backing the over as both teams find their offensive rhythm.

Best Bet: Over 42.3