College Football Week 13 Picks: Friday Night Lights Best Bets

This is it, the final month of the college football regular season. Teams are gearing up for playoff pushes, conference championship games, and just trying to stay bowl eligible.

We’ve got our favorite plays lined up for Week 13’s Friday night slate!

Where to Watch Florida State Seminoles vs North Carolina State Wolfpack

Stadium: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium
Location: Raleigh, NC
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: FSU -6.5 | Total: 59.5
Moneyline: FSU -225 | NCST +190

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The participants in the ACC Championship Game will be determined over the final two weeks of the regular season. Unfortunately, neither the Florida State Seminoles nor the North Carolina State Wolfpack has a dog in the race. Both teams are sitting at 5-5 on the season, with just two wins over ACC foes. Still needing six wins to remain bowl eligible, we expect both teams to be firing on all cylinders at Carter-Finley Stadium.

From an analytics perspective, the Noles are a much better team than their record implies. Florida State operates one of the most efficient offensive units in the country, generating the seventh-most yards and 17th-most points per game. While they’re known for their unrelenting rushing attack, the Seminoles are also more than capable of moving the ball through the air. So far this season, they have produced 249.8 passing and 227.7 rushing yards per game.

That offensive proficiency puts NC State at a deficit. Their defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing 440.4 yards and 31.6 points per game. But as bad as they’ve been defensively, the Wolfpack will do their best to keep pace on offense. This is a team that averages 409.0 yards and 29.9 points per game, benchmarks they have eclipsed in two of their last three.

Offense will be the main course in this ACC banquet. Florida State has eclipsed 34 points in two of three and should see sustained production against NC State. We expect the Wolfpack to maintain their current form and keep their foot on the pedal. In the end, we predict this one soars over the posted total.

Best Bet: FSU-NCST Over 59.5

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks every week!

Where to Watch Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors vs UNLV Rebels

Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: FS1
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Spread: UNLV -2.5 | Total: 63.5
Moneyline: UNLV -140 | HAW +120

With all of the hoopla in the Power Four, it’s easy to overlook the intense conference battles that are shaking out in the Group of Five. The Mountain West Conference is no exception. Five teams are sitting at 4-2 in conference play, with San Diego State leading the way at 5-1. As such, Week 15’s championship showdown will be determined over the final two weeks of the regular season. The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors and UNLV Rebels are two of those second-place teams, meaning the victor of Friday’s clash keeps their hat in the MWC ring.

Undoubtedly, Hawai’i’s ascent up the MWC standings was one of the more shocking developments this season. The Rainbow Warriors usually exist in perpetual mediocrity, but they’ve turned a corner in their current iteration. They are vastly superior on both sides of the football, with their most prominent developments coming in the passing attack. Through ten games, Hawai’i is averaging 285.3 passing yards per game (tenth-most in the FBS), contributing to 407.6 yards and 30.5 points per game.

Moreover, the Rebels have demonstrated the defensive ability to limit that attack. UNLV ranks among the ten worst teams in total defense, allowing 448.6 yards per game. Predictably, that correlates with a lackluster scoring defense, as evidenced by their 31.0 points per game. They have been particularly awful at defending the pass, a weakness the Rainbow Warriors will exploit at Allegiant Stadium.

As is typically the case, UNLV will have no problem putting up points on Friday night. However, we don’t think it will be enough to match Hawai’i’s output. This is a field goal game, but we expect the visitors to vanquish the Rebels in a high-scoring affair.

Best Bet: Hawai’i +120, HAW-UNLV Over 63.5