NCAAF · 3 months ago

10 Games That Will Shape the College Football Playoff

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

10. Big Ten Championship Game
The Big Ten Championship Game (and the SEC Championship Game) will not determine whether a team makes the College Football Playoff, but this contest is very likely to determine who the No. 1 seed is. The matchup has yet to be locked in, with Indiana needing to beat Purdue to make it, and then Ohio State having to take care of Rutgers and Michigan. If chalk holds, the Hoosiers and Buckeyes will meet in a No. 1 versus No. 2 clash in Indianapolis with the winner securing the No. 1 seed and the loser probably ending up at No. 3 or, at worst, No. 4.

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1. Missouri at Oklahoma (-7.5) - Saturday at Noon
The Oklahoma Sooners return home after a mammoth win at Alabama, and they know that if they can win out, they will be in the College Football Playoff (and likely host a game in Norman). After an emotional win like the one at Alabama, it’s only natural to expect some potential letdown. Still, the Sooners have no room for error with the rushing attack of Missouri coming to town. The Tigers have the SEC’s best running back in Ahmad Hardy, and injuries at quarterback have caused the offense to lean fully into the rushing attack. Oklahoma could add another ranked win to an already impressive resume, but a third loss would likely drop them behind Texas in the pecking order (head-to-head loss to the Longhorns) and out of the bracket.

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2. USC at Oregon (-9.5) - Saturday at 3:30
The USC Trojans are 8-2 as they roll into Eugene with a potential trip to the College Football Playoff on the line for both teams. The script for Oregon is clear: pound the ball with their strong running backs against USC’s susceptible run defense, build a lead, and then force the Trojans to throw the ball against their fierce pass rush and top-ranked pass defense. If things go according to plan for the Ducks, it will be a long day for USC and Lincoln Riley. What if USC can get off to a good start? The Trojans could flip that script, force Oregon to throw, and stay two-dimensional on offense. If that occurs, the Trojans have the talent to stay in this game and have a chance in the fourth quarter to knock off the Ducks. USC has to win this game, but if they can knock off Oregon in Eugene, the Trojans vault into the projected bracket and would have a “win and you’re in” game against UCLA. A second loss for Oregon would potentially knock them all the way out, while a win probably secures a home game in the first round.
3. Georgia at Georgia Tech - Friday, November 28 at 3:30
The Georgia Bulldogs were a bit below their lofty standards earlier in the season, but they now look the part of a title contender and have risen to number four in the College Football Playoff rankings. A win over Georgia Tech likely locks up a spot in the top four and a valuable first-round bye, while a loss would drop them to 10-2 and leave the Bulldogs potentially playing a first-round game on the road. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have only one loss, and their most likely path to the CFP is winning the ACC, an outcome this game will not affect. What would the seeding look like for Georgia Tech if they beat Georgia on a neutral field in Atlanta and then win the ACC in Charlotte?
4. Texas A&M at Texas - Friday, November 28 at 7:30
The Texas Longhorns would have a fascinating resume if they can win the regular season finale in Austin against rival Texas A&M. The Aggies will very likely be 11-0 entering this contest and be ranked third, so this would be a significant statement win as the final data point for Steve Sarkisian’s squad. How would the committee treat a 9-3 Texas team with wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M and only one truly damaging loss (at Florida)? Would Texas A&M be in danger of losing its first-round bye and having to host a game in College Station in the first round instead? A win by Texas could create a whole lot of chaos.
5. Ohio State at Michigan - Saturday, November 29 at Noon
If the Michigan Wolverines beat the Maryland Terrapins this weekend, the stage would be set for another monumental clash between Ohio State and Michigan. As every fan of either school will tell you, Michigan has won four in a row in the sport’s best rivalry. The two would be playing for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and a right to play the Indiana Hoosiers (assuming IU beats Purdue on Black Friday and Oregon beats USC this Saturday). Ohio State is a virtual lock to make the playoff field, while Michigan needs to upset the Buckeyes to get in.
6. Vanderbilt at Tennessee - Saturday, November 29 at 3:30
Vanderbilt and Tennessee have rarely, if ever, met with so much on the line. If Vanderbilt beats Kentucky, the Commodores will be taking on their rival in a ranked game with a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff. They would enter at 9-2, try to grab a quality road win in Knoxville, and then hope for a bit of help (Missouri upsetting Oklahoma, Texas losing to Texas A&M, Ohio State beating Michigan, Oregon beating USC) to sneak into the bracket at 10-2. A third Vanderbilt loss would end their candidacy.
7. Alabama at Auburn - Saturday, November 29 at 7:30
The annual Iron Bowl will be contested on November 29 in primetime, and Alabama needs a win over Auburn to reach 10-2, secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game (thanks to the win over Georgia), and then lock up a bid to the College Football Playoff. The pressure on head coach Kalen DeBoer would grow to a fever pitch if Alabama dropped this game to its rival, and a 9-3 Alabama team would miss the SEC Championship Game and get left out of the playoff for the second straight season. Auburn is playing the role of a very dangerous spoiler.
8. American Athletic Conference Championship Game
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has made its opinion of James Madison quite clear: the Dukes have a poor strength of schedule, and they don’t want to reward that with a playoff bid. JMU is not ranked, and that likely means the Group of Five’s playoff bid will not go to the Sun Belt Champion; it will fall to the winner of the American Athletic Conference. Who this game will feature and where it will be played will be determined over the next two weeks, with possibilities including Navy, Tulane, North Texas, and East Carolina.
9. Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
There was a stretch of a week or two when it was entirely possible that the ACC would be left out of the College Football Playoff altogether. Duke was hanging out with four losses but only one league defeat, and the Blue Devils would be below the champions in the Sun Belt and the American Athletic Conference. Duke lost to Virginia, and the committee has made it clear they don’t view JMU as a legitimate contender for a spot, so those concerns have vanished, and the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte is now a play-in game. Georgia Tech and Virginia have the inside track, but there’s still a chance SMU or Pittsburgh can sneak in.
10. Big Ten Championship Game
The Big Ten Championship Game (and the SEC Championship Game) will not determine whether a team makes the College Football Playoff, but this contest is very likely to determine who the No. 1 seed is. The matchup has yet to be locked in, with Indiana needing to beat Purdue to make it, and then Ohio State having to take care of Rutgers and Michigan. If chalk holds, the Hoosiers and Buckeyes will meet in a No. 1 versus No. 2 clash in Indianapolis with the winner securing the No. 1 seed and the loser probably ending up at No. 3 or, at worst, No. 4.

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1. Missouri at Oklahoma (-7.5) - Saturday at Noon
The Oklahoma Sooners return home after a mammoth win at Alabama, and they know that if they can win out, they will be in the College Football Playoff (and likely host a game in Norman). After an emotional win like the one at Alabama, it’s only natural to expect some potential letdown. Still, the Sooners have no room for error with the rushing attack of Missouri coming to town. The Tigers have the SEC’s best running back in Ahmad Hardy, and injuries at quarterback have caused the offense to lean fully into the rushing attack. Oklahoma could add another ranked win to an already impressive resume, but a third loss would likely drop them behind Texas in the pecking order (head-to-head loss to the Longhorns) and out of the bracket.

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10 Games That Will Shape the College Football Playoff

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