College Football Week 14 Picks: Friday Night Lights Best Bets

This is it, the final month of the college football regular season. Teams are gearing up for playoff pushes, conference championship games, and just trying to stay bowl eligible.

We’ve got our favorite plays lined up for Week 13’s Friday night slate!

Where to Watch (3) Texas A&M Aggies vs (16) Texas Longhorns

Stadium: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Location: Austin, TX
Where to Watch: ABC
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: TA&M -2.5 | Total: 53.5
Moneyline: TA&M -135 | TEX +115

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The only thing standing between the Texas A&M Aggies and a perfect season is a hated rival. The Aggies invade DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium to write the latest chapter of the Lone Star Showdown against the Texas Longhorns. Both teams are ranked in this intra-state clash, but one team holds a significant advantage heading into the final week of the regular season.

Texas A&M continues to flaunt its elite play on both sides of the football. The Aggies sit in the top 15 in total offense and defense, penning their best offensive campaign in recent memory. Their 261.9 passing yards and 195.9 rushing yards both rank in the top 25, highlighting their balanced, unstoppable attack. We’ve seen them operate at optimal efficiency throughout the campaign, but their 40.2 points per game over their last five elevate the Aggies into another stratosphere.

It’s been a much less convincing season for the Longhorns. Texas entered the campaign with National Championship aspirations, but they are increasingly unlikely to be included in the College Football Playoff. Texas suffered its third loss of the season in Week 12, and it has struggled to sustain consistent play throughout the campaign. They have fallen to 71st in total offense this season, exceeding expectations with the 50th-ranked scoring unit. The Longhorns won’t be able to overcome that disadvantage against the high-octane Aggies.

The x-factor tilting us toward Texas A&M is the Longhorns’ ineffective pass defense. Giving up an average of 221.7 passing yards per game, Texas won’t be able to contain the Aggies’ unrelenting offensive attack. This line is on the move, but this is steam worth chasing.

Best Bet: Texas A&M -2.5

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Where to Watch (2) Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers

Stadium: Ross-Ade Stadium
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Where to Watch: NBC
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Spread: IU -27.5 | Total: 53.5
Moneyline: IU -10000 | PUR +2500

The Old Oaken Bucket game is one of the most cherished rivalries in Indiana. The second-ranked Indiana Hoosiers humbled the Purdue Boilermakers in last year’s matchup, crushing the West Lafayette squad 66-0. The spread clearly favors the Hoosiers in this one, but we expect them to come up short at Ross-Ade Stadium.

Indiana’s offense has been the hallmark of its success this season. The Big Ten frontrunners average 43.3 points per game, the second-most in the country, and their 478.0 yards per game validate that. Still, we’ve seen a sharp decline in their production over the past few weeks. The Hoosiers put up just 328 yards against Penn State in Week 11, following that up with an equally disappointing 388 yards last time out versus Wisconsin. Predictably, that correlates with two ATS losses, setting the stage for another letdown versus Purdue.

It’s not captured in their 2-9 record, but the Boilermakers have been a different team at home. They covered the 30.5 spread against Ohio State in Week 11, thanks to a better-than-expected offensive performance. That’s been the case in each one of its home games, with Purdue averaging 21.8 points per game in its friendly confines, compared to just 15.8 as the visitors.

The advantage on Purdue is multifactorial. Indiana’s offense is on the decline, while the Boilermakers are better equipped at Ross-Ade Stadium. Finally, this will be the Hoosiers’ third road game in four weeks, putting them in a scheduling conundrum. The moneyline option suggests some reckless bettors think the Boilermakers have a chance at an outright upset. Savvy bettors will be happy just taking the points.

Best Bet: Purdue +27.5

Where to Watch (25) Arizona Wildcats vs (20) Arizona State Sun Devils

Stadium: Mountain America Stadium
Location: Tempe, AZ
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Spread: ARI -1.5 | Total: 48.5
Moneyline: ARI -120 | ASU +100

The Friday night slate closes out with the Territorial Cup between the Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils. Arizona State has an outside shot at the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Sun Devils should do their part to stay in the race.

ASU has overcome the Sam Leavitt season-ending foot injury without compromising its offensive integrity. In the three games since Leavitt departed, Arizona State has averaged 459.0 yards per game while eclipsing 467 total yards in two of those three contests. At the same time, they’ve maintained their usual stout defensive play, holding opponents to an average of 19.7 points per game.

A few factors negatively impact the Wildcats’ chances of victory. First, they won’t be able to match Arizona State’s offensive integrity. Arizona has struggled to move the ball consistently, falling below 355 yards in two of its last three. Secondly, their recent scoring surge doesn’t match their offensive production. That imbalance implies that the Wildcats are regression candidates heading into the final week of the season. Finally, they won’t be able to contain the Sun Devils on defense. Arizona’s kryptonite is its run defense, playing into the Sun Devils’ most prominent strength.

This has upset written all over it. The Sun Devils have a dog in the championship race, and the Wildcats are outmatched on both sides of the football. We think ASU should be favored in this one, making the moneyline play the holiday gift we all deserve.

Best Bet: Arizona State +100