College Football Week 14 Predictions | Saturday Picks Today, Best Bets

The stakes in college football have never been higher. In the final week of the regular season, virtually every conference is still up for grabs. As we know, Power Four conference champs are awarded an automatic playoff berth, but eight other spots are still in play. That means the intensity only gets ratcheted higher as we speed toward an exciting conclusion of the 2024 season.

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Old Dominion Monarchs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Spread: Old Dominion -4.5 (-115) | Arkansas State +4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Old Dominion -192 | Arkansas State +162
Total: OVER 58.5 (-110) | UNDER 58.5 (-110)

Starting with our usual Group of 5 love, we’ve identified an immense value spot for an underrated home team. The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Old Dominion Monarchs in a tale of teams trending in opposite directions.

Arkansas State got off to a slow start to the season. The Red Wolves dropped three of their first six games, granted, with two of those losses coming against Power Four schools. Since then, they’ve rattled off wins in four of their past five to stay in contention for a Sun Belt Championship Game berth next week. Over that five-game run, the Red Wolves have eclipsed 27 points in all but one of those contests, a trend that should persist against an inferior Monarchs’ defense. 

ODU has struggled to contain opponents lately. The Monarchs have dropped three straight, with all three of those opponents eclipsing 27 points and with two of those three recording more than 425 yards of total offense. Amplifying those concerns, two of Old Dominion’s lackluster efforts came in their friendly confines, which is a bad omen for what to expect as the visitors. 

Arkansas State stays in the Sun Belt running with a win. While ODU will do their best to de-rail those plans, they don’t possess the defensive faculties to inhibit the Red Wolves’ attack. We’re throwing caution to the wind, backing the underdog home side on the moneyline.

Recommended Play: Arkansas State Moneyline +162

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 14 of College Football Season

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders

Spread: West Virginia +2.5 (-105) | Texas Tech -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: West Virginia +114 | Texas Tech -137
Total: OVER 64.5 (-114) | UNDER 64.5 (-106)

Throw defensive responsibility to the wind in this one. The Texas Tech Red Raiders and West Virginia Mountaineers will be ready to shoot the lights out in Lubbock. 

Neither program prioritizes defense, ensuring points come early and often in this Big 12 showdown. The Red Raiders have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game. West Virginia is close behind, ranking 111th out of 134 FBS programs. More concerningly, both teams have been hemorrhaging yards over their more recent sample. 

Over their past three games, Texas Tech has given up an average of 433.7 yards per game. In what could only be described as a ‘hold my beer’ meme, the Mountaineers are up to 436.0. Naturally, that ineffective defending correlates with a surge in scoring. The Red Raiders have allowed 37.0 points per game over their previous three, with West Virginia checking in just below that at 31.7. 

As expected, these Big 12 foes have been on pronounced over streaks coming into this game. Texas Tech and West Virginia have combined to eclipse the total in eight of their past ten. We’re betting on those trends holding steady, with this game sailing over 64.5 points.

Recommended Play: Over 64.5 -114

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs USC Trojans

Spread: Notre Dame -6.5 (-122) | USC +6.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -275 | USC +220
Total: OVER 52.5 (-110) | UNDER 52.5 (-110)

We’re done underestimating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Since an unsuspecting loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies, Notre Dame has eviscerated the competition. The USC Trojans, mired in one of their worst seasons in recent memory, pose no threat to the Irish in Week 14. 

Notre Dame’s defensive prowess has been on full display this season. The Irish give up a paltry 11.6 points and 273.1 yards per game, ranking top three in total and scoring defense. They’ve wielded that strength unmercifully, holding their past three opponents to a combined 741 yards and 31 points. More importantly, they’ve covered the number in seven straight contests despite being double-digit favorites in all but one of those outings. 

The usually offensively gifted Trojans have been held in check all year. USC averages a middling 29.3 points per game, but they’ve fallen on harder times in the latter stages of the campaign. Across their past three games, the Trojans are down to 22.7 points per game, a decline validated by decreased offensive production. 

USC won’t be able to break through Notre Dame’s defensive shell. The Fighting Irish have played with a chip on their shoulder since their Week 2 loss, a trend that won’t change in their final regular season showdown and last chance to impress the College Football Playoff committee. Notre Dame trounces the Trojans, covering one of its shortest numbers of the season.

Recommended Play: Notre Dame -6.5 -122

Virginia Cavaliers vs Virginia Tech Hokies

Spread: Virginia +7.5 (-115) | Virginia Tech -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Virginia +220 | Virginia Tech -275
Total: OVER 48.5 (-110) | UNDER 48.5 (-110)

There’s nothing like an in-state rivalry game to get the college football juices flowing. While it may not be the most glamorous matchup in Week 14, there’s plenty on the line for the Virginia Cavaliers and Virginia Tech Hokies on Saturday night. 

Both programs enter the ACC tilt with identical 5-6 records. That means the victor of this grudge match maintains their bowl eligibility. The Hokies enter as decisive favorites, but we like Virginia’s chances of staying within a touchdown. 

Virginia Tech has failed to live up to its preseason hype. The Hokies average 372.9 yards per game on offense, an average that has taken a hit with their latest efforts. Over its past four games, V-Tech is down to 327.3 yards per game, bringing scoring down with it. They’ve fallen below 21 points in two of those four contests, with a rolling average of 23.5 points per game. 

The Cavaliers should have no problem breaking through Virginia Tech’s defense and keeping pace with the Hokies. V-Tech has been vulnerable against the pass and rush at various points this season, letting Virginia get the most out of all its playmakers on offense. We’re forecasting a closer-than-anticipated outcome, with Virginia covering +7.5.

Recommended Play: UCLA +4.5 -110

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