College Football Week 3 Best Bets: 6 B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

With the Big Ten going 2-6 in its eight games against Power 4 foes in Week 2, our 5-5 record wasn’t so bad.

This week doesn’t feature many competitive matchups, with just three games against other Power 4 teams: Michigan State (+29.5) at Notre Dame, Northwestern (-3.5) hosting Colorado, and old frenemy James Franklin bringing Va. Tech to Maryland (+3). We have a play on one of those games.

Week 3 also features the first conference games of 2026. USC travels cross-country to the birthplace of college football to take on Rutgers, while UCLA hosts Purdue late on Saturday night. Find out which sides B1GBets backs this week!

B1G BETS 2026 BETTING RECORD

• Last Week: 5-5 (0 UNITS)
• 2026 Season: 7-11 (-3.5 UNITS) | ATS Bets: 4-7 (-3 UNITS)
• Team Totals: 3-3 (0 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNIT)
• Not So B1G Bets: 6-7 (-0.5 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 1-4 (-3 UNITS)
• B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS)

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NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT):

Eastern Michigan UNDER 10.5 (@BetRivers)

As you might know, I’m not super high on the Badgers in 2026. My fade on the cheeseheads is their offense. The defense is very solid and has talent led by sophomore linebackers Cooper Catalano (22 tackles) and Mason Posa (16 tackles).

They held Notre Dame to 5.7 yards per play, including 3.5 yards per carry in their opener, which was closer than the final score indicated (thanks to the defense). Last week they kept Western Illinois out of the end zone, which they might do again against Eastern Michigan.

EMU is 1-2 and managed just seven points at Michigan State against a defense not as good as Wisconsin’s. The Eagles actually ran the ball OK in Spartan Stadium, but the sledding will be tougher this Saturday.

Noah Kim (former MSU QB) is in his second season as Eastern Michigan’s starter and looked every bit the MAC QB who can’t quite step up in competition when facing a Big Ten defense, even one as mediocre as Michigan State’s. Kim managed a meager 4.5 yards per pass and took four sacks. Keep an eye on EDGE Sebastian Cheeks, who picked up a sack against Notre Dame. The secondary is improved with S Matthew Jung (16 tackles) building on his strong finish in 2025, and the addition of CB Javan Robinson from Arizona State gives them a cover man they can trust.

What we do like about the Badgers on offense is that they should be able to run the ball in this matchup. Iowa State transfer Abu Sama III had 107 yards on eight carries (13.4 YPC) last week, and QB Colton Joseph is a dynamic runner. With returnee Darrion Dupree and USC transfer Bryan Jackson II, the Badgers have the depth to control the football deep into the fourth quarter as they milk the clock with a lead. Complementary football is key in these spots.

Over the previous five seasons, 17 games have featured a MAC school playing a Power 4 school for the second straight week, with both contests on the road. In those games, the MAC school averaged 8.76 PPG and failed to score more than 10 points 12 times.

MINNESOTA -23.5 Akron (@DraftKings)

Under Joe Moorhead, Akron is 0-9 against Power 4 programs, as expected. For our purposes, the more significant record is their 3-6 ATS mark versus Power 4 foes. If we remove the smallest and largest spreads—+16 at 2023 Indiana (3-9 team) and +48.5 at Ohio State (lost 52-6)—that record drops to 1-6.

The lone cover came at Wake Forest in Week 1 when the Zips took advantage of a 27.5-point spread in a 38-16 loss. They trailed 38-3 midway through the fourth quarter and got the backdoor cover against the Demon Deacons thanks to their second garbage-time touchdown with 29 seconds remaining.

The market overcorrected, and I’m on Minnesota again. Despite last week’s disappointing effort against Mississippi State, the Golden Gophers are a better team than Wake Forest, who needed overtime to beat Purdue last week.

So why is the spread four points smaller than it was against the Demon Deacons?

The Golden Gophers have a tougher defense and should control the line of scrimmage. While they couldn’t keep up with Mississippi State’s explosiveness, Akron is more Minnesota’s speed.

They should also be able to run the football, which is what P.J. Fleck wants. After falling behind early in Week 2, they were forced to throw the ball 48 times compared to 15 rushes. That’s not Gophers football. Wake Forest rushed for 203 yards (6.2 YPC) against the Zips, and Minnesota should have a big day on the ground.

Over the past four-plus seasons, Fleck’s teams are 6-0 when favored by more than three touchdowns, allowing 24 total points in those games.

Last week we admitted Michigan was the worst Week 1 pick, yet the Wolverines were still among the sides we backed in Week 2. We were rewarded. Now, I’m telling you, Minnesota was the worst Week 2 B1G Bet, which shouldn’t stop us from getting back in the boat, paddles in hand, ready to row this Saturday again.

RUTGERS +22 USC (@BetRivers)

We’re going back to the well on Rutgers. Hold your nose. Do whatever you have to do to take the points. This is purely a spot play.

Over the past two seasons, 57 games have involved a Big Ten road team traveling multiple time zones.

Big Ten Multiple Time Zone Travel

• Travel Team is 19-39 straight up
• Travel Team is 19-38-2 against the spread
• Travel Team West-to-East is 10-18-1 against the spread
• USC Traveling West-to-East is 0-6-1 against the spread

Big Ten teams have struggled traveling multiple time zones; no program has done it worse than USC. The Trojans are 2-5 playing in the central and eastern time zones with a 0-6-1 ATS record in that spot.

I’m not predicting an upset on Saturday, but with Oregon coming up next week, it’s hard to imagine USC keeping their starters in long or looking to pour it on against Rutgers.

When the backups have come in with a big lead, they haven’t been nearly as consistent as the starters. In Week 1, USC led 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters, before losing the fourth quarter by 23 points. Last week, they led 28-10 at halftime, before giving up 20 second-half points (while scoring 21).

San Jose State (6.0 YPP) and Louisiana (6.9 YPP) both moved the ball against USC at times, as will Rutgers, whose best two players are WR KJ Duff and RB Antwan Raymond.

The Trojans will be without star freshman WR Trent Mosley, their most dynamic player so far, and five-star defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart, who has yet to suit up this season. Their depth at safety and linebacker could also be impacted by injuries, which would factor into the spread if we need a backdoor cover.

Rutgers has good news on the injury front with starting QB Dylan Lonergan (probable) set to return after missing last week’s loss at Boston College.

UCLA -14 Purdue (@DraftKings)

This is another multi-time-zone game, with lowly Purdue traveling out West after their heartbreaking overtime loss to Wake Forest last week. Teams traveling east-to-west in this scenario are 9-19-1 ATS.

The Boilermakers have made the trip only once in two seasons in Big Ten play: a 49-13 loss at Washington as a 14.5-point underdog last November. They also visited Oregon State in 2024, as a 2.5-point underdog, and were defeated 38-21. So, they are 0-2 ATS in the Pacific time zone.

Purdue lost ten games in 2025, and seven were by at least 16 points. Going back to 2024, they have 21 losses, 15 by 16-plus points. The Boilermakers don’t just lose; they get blown out.

As much as I liked the Barry Odom hire, this team isn’t better. The recruiting is down, and their portal additions aren’t impressive. They will be without CB Mister Clark, who doesn’t just have an amazing name; he is likely their top defender.

My favorite coaching hire in the Big Ten over the past couple of seasons might be Bob Chesney to UCLA, and he’s certainly increased the talent level in Westwood.

Former JMU RB Wayne Knight leads them with 168 yards (8.0 YPC) and six touchdowns. Sophomore WR Brian Rowe Jr., our preseason breakout pick from South Carolina, has 91 receiving yards to pace the Bruins.

Defensively, OU transfer LB Sammy Omosigho has 21 tackles. Of UCLA’s five double-digit tacklers, four are newcomers added through the portal. That doesn’t include late-summer addition, fifth-year man Trent Hendrick, who is still getting his feet wet. The linebacker starred for Chesney at James Madison last season when he was the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.

B1G BET (1 UNIT):

INDIANA -44.5 Western Kentucky (@DraftKings)

I gotta be honest. I’m itching to bet on the Hoosiers.

Over the past year-plus, Indiana has probably been my most-bet team ATS. Curt Cignetti doesn’t just like to win; he likes to win big. Good teams win. Great teams cover.

After going 17-8 ATS as the favorite over the past two seasons, including 10-5 at home, Indiana has failed to cover their first two games of the 2026 season. They have been close. IU beat North Texas by 36 (-39.5) and Howard by 55 (-57).

The Hoosiers started slow in Week 1 and failed to score in the fourth quarter in Week 2, so they are due to put together a complete game heading into Big Ten play. There’s no need to worry about Indiana looking ahead. One, they face Northwestern next week. Two, that’s not Cignetti’s way. He’s played three out-of-conference teams before Big Ten games and is 3-0 ATS.

Indiana Hoosiers Look-a-Head Spot Check

• -44.5 vs. Western Illinois before at UCLA (2024) = 77-3
• -28 vs. Charlotte before vs. Maryland (2024) = 52-14
• -47.5 vs. Indiana State before vs. #9 Illinois (2025) = 73-0

In Indiana’s first three games a year ago, Fernando Mendoza attempted 76 passes. Through two games, Josh Hoover has just 27 attempts. Expect him to throw the ball more this Saturday. That means more opportunities for playmakers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. When they throw, IU is gobbling up yards, with their top five pass catchers averaging over 20 yards per grab.

The Hoosiers can also beat you on the ground with Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. (both went over 100 yards last week), with QB2 Grant Wilson’s legs (3 carries, 49 yards) potentially playing a role in this cover. As a team, they’ve rushed for 430 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs through two games.

WKU has allowed 49 (at Nevada) and 70 (Georgia) points in two games this season. They are 137th (out of 138!) in rushing yards allowed (278.5 per game) and yards per carry (7.23).

Meanwhile, IU’s defense is as good as any at stuffing the run, getting after the quarterback (5 sacks last week), and limiting explosives.

NORTHWESTERN -3.5 Colorado (@DraftKings)

Patience will help this week as the line has dropped and could hit three heading into Saturday.

I like this Northwestern team. The hires of OC Chip Kelly and QB coach Jerry Neuheisel paid early dividends as they scored 34 points in their Week 1 win. Most importantly, Aidan Chiles averaged an impressive 11.4 yards per pass for 273 yards. WR Griffin Wilde (104 yards) is an underrated pass catcher, and 6’6” TE Luke Dehnicke might be a weapon in the throw game. He led the NSIC in receiving as a freshman last season, putting up monster numbers (61-1,119-14). The big target caught two for 41 yards in his Northwestern debut.

With the trio of leading returning rusher Caleb Komolafe (957 yards last season), speedster Joseph Himon II, and transfer Gavin Sawchuk (Florida State/Oklahoma), the backfield has more depth and talent than you expect from Northwestern.

I trust this offense. And don’t trust Colorado’s.

Throw out last week’s stats for the Buffs—my buddy, a CU alum, messaged me, “Too bad we can’t play Weber St. more often.”

Against Georgia Tech, Julian Lewis went 14-for-27 (4.6 yards per pass), and the offensive line allowed six tackles for loss.

Northwestern has a really good secondary led by S Robert Fitzgerald, who had 14 tackles in Week 1. CB Josh Fussell, nickelback Braden Turner, and S Damon Walters are all potential All-Big Ten caliber players. It’s a talented unit that will make life tough on Colorado’s passing offense.

Linebackers Braydon Brus (81 tackles in 2025) and Kobie McKinzie (9 tackles in Week 1), another former Sooner, are a pair of thumpers who make you earn it on the ground.

Northwestern has the better defense; I give them a slight edge on offense, and I only have to lay a field goal at home? Go ‘Cats!

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS):

None. 

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS):

None.