Michigan State Spartans 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

The Michigan State Spartans begin their third program reboot since Mark Dantonio retired in 2019. Mel Tucker was a hit until he wasn’t. Jonathan Smith’s team regressed in Year 2, his second straight losing season—and Michigan State’s fourth straight. Dantonio had two over 13 seasons. The Spartans haven’t had five losing seasons in a row since 1979-1983.

Michigan State Spartans Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 7-6 (3-6) | Big Ten Finish: 12th (tied)
• P. Poll: No. | Coaches Poll: No.  17 | SP+: No. 17
• Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (1st Year) | Record: 107-70 | At MSU: 0-0
• Offensive Coordinator: Nick Sheridan (1st Year)
• Defensive Coordinator: Joe Rossi (1st Year)

Enter Pat Fitzgerald. A hard-nosed head coach who fits Sparty’s persona, with experience and the know-how of what it takes to win in the Big Ten. Can Coach Fitz turn it around in East Lansing?

Michigan State Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 4.5 +130 | UNDER 4.5 -156
• Conference Wins: OVER 2.5 -120 | UNDER 2.5 +100
• National Championship Odds: +90000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +15000
• B1G Championship Odds: +50000 | To Reach B1GCG: +15000

The sportsbooks aren’t optimistic about the Fitzgerald hire. At least not for Year 1. The Spartans are projected to miss a bowl and finish under .500 yet again with two or three conference wins, leaving them near the bottom of the Big Ten. Only Rutgers and Purdue are considered bigger longshots to win the B1G than Michigan State. That’s the company they keep.

Michigan State Preview: Why You Should Buy

• 3 Good Portal RB Additions
• Offensive Line Should Be Improved

There’s really not a lot to feel good about. They should be able to run the ball and have added some pieces with upside along the offensive line, which should be better than a year ago. UConn transfer Cam Edwards is a legit Big Ten back coming off an excellent redshirt junior season, which saw him rush for 1,240 yards (5.9 YPC) and 15 TDs. For his career, he has over 3,000 total yards and 31 TDs. He can ball. They also added Marvis Parrish (567 yards as a freshman) from Western Kentucky and Iowa’s Jaziun Patterson for solid depth.

Anchoring the offensive line is another former Huskie, left tackle Ben Murawski. At 6’7” and 340 pounds, he brings size, physicality, and experience. Guard Nick Sharpe (Wake Forest and South Carolina) is a proven road-grader at 340 pounds, and center Trent Fraley brings 29 straight starts from North Dakota State after beginning his career at Maryland. The top center (Remington Award) in FCS last season could be an All-Big Ten performer. Another 6’6’ giant, Conner Moore, has 40 career starts, including 12 at tackle for the Spartans last season, and will likely kick inside to guard.

Michigan State Preview: Why You Should Sell

• Ranked 97th in Returning Production
• 70 Returning Starts Second-Fewest in Big Ten
• Only 3 Returning on Defense Had 100 Snaps

The overall lack of talent, which some have compared to a Group of Six team. They haven’t had a player drafted higher than the sixth round since 2023 and have had just one non-punter selected in each of the past three drafts. Another streak that could very well continue this season. Remember, unlike most new coaches, Pat Fitzgerald wasn’t able to bring a stable of players with him. QB Alessio Milivojevic is a bottom-third of the Big Ten passer with no proven weapon to throw to, as Andrew Marsh is in Bloomington.

The defensive line didn’t generate much of a pass rush last season, lost its two most productive defenders, and the linebacking corps lacks depth behind leading tackler Jordan Hall. The coaches in East Lansing are optimistic about the secondary, and while Iowa State transfer Tre Bell might be ready for a bigger role, they’re counting a lot on lesser-known transfers in CB Tyran Chappell (Houston Christian) and S Devin Vaught (Maine).

Michigan State Breakout Player: Name the Pass Catcher

• Top Two Wide Receivers Are Gone (NFL & Indiana)
• Top Two Tight Ends Are Gone (NFL & Texas)

MSU must replace 194 receptions from last season (out of 240 completions). Leading returning receiver Chrishon McCray has the inside rail to be WR1 with enough quickness to make plays out of the slot. Beyond the senior, it appears speedy freshman Charles Taplin has passed transfers KK Smith (Notre Dame) and Fredrick Moore (Michigan) on the depth chart. Another redshirt freshman, TE Jayden Savoury, looks the part (6’5” and 253 pounds) and is pushing to start.

Michigan State X-Factor: Coach Fitz

• 17 Years as Northwestern’s Head Coach
• 2018 Big Ten Coach of the Year
• 2020 National Coach of the Year
• Hasn’t Coached in 4 Seasons

Here’s the thing. I’m not sure Coach Fitzgerald is the right guy for this program. I write that as someone who was a big fan of his and respected the job he did at Northwestern. Big picture, his 110-101 record with a run of 10 bowl games over 13 years was impressive. As were his two Big Ten Championship Game appearances. He also deserves credit for retaining DC Joe Rossi and poaching special teams coach LeVar Woods from Iowa.

However, Northwestern (his alma mater) is a very unique job, and even before he ran into trouble (for which he’s since been vindicated by winning a wrongful termination suit), it appeared Fitz was losing something off his fastball. Excluding the COVID season, his teams were 7-29 (3-24 in B1G) over the last three full seasons. His tenure ended in 2022. The college football world, including the Big Ten, has changed in a way that normally took decades. There are good reasons to have doubts. 

Michigan State Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 22
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 7

The season starts with two very winnable games, but they must travel to top-five Notre Dame before the Big Ten schedule kicks off. MSU avoids Ohio State and Indiana, so it could be worse, but it has to travel to Michigan, followed by visits from Oregon and Washington in a brutal three-game November stretch.

They also don’t play Purdue or Maryland, with Rutgers the only Big Ten opponent who doesn’t have a high win total, and that game is on the road to close out the season after their likely thumping at the hands of the Ducks. Northwestern at home might be their best chance at a conference win.

Michigan State Best Bet, Long Shot, & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 4.5 Wins

• Win Total: UNDER 4.5 (-156 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: UNDER 2.5 Conference Wins (+100 @ DraftKings)
• Long Shot: UNDER 3.5 (+140 @ DraftKings)

The lack of talent, a head coach who’s been out of the game for three years, and a difficult schedule make getting to five wins look like a tall task for the Spartans. Even if Fitz is the guy and turns it around, it won’t happen this season.

Even better value is Michigan State to win fewer than 2.5 conference games at +100. If you consider Notre Dame an automatic loss and assume wins versus their MAC foes, MSU will have to win three Big Ten games to go over 4.5 regular-season wins, so I’m not sure why the odds are so different.