North Carolina vs TCU Prediction | College Football Best Bets

The Bill Belichick era officially kicks off on Monday night when his North Carolina Tar Heels host the TCU Horned Frogs. UNC is installed as short-home underdogs, which is a fair position given the amount of turnover they feature on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, we trust Bill Belichick to have his team ready to compete against a TCU side that also lost a fair amount of production this offseason. We’re forecasting a tightly contested non-conference battle that is worth the price of admission.

Where to Watch TCU Horned Frogs vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

• Location: Kenan Stadium | Chapel Hill, NC
• Time: 8 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Spread: TCU -3.5 | Total: 55.5
• Moneyline: TCU -170 | North Carolina +140

North Carolina vs. TCU Best Bet ATS: North Carolina +3.5

The betting market has the Horned Frogs out in front, but that confidence should erode as we approach kick-off. These factors should weigh on bettors’ minds when placing their bets. First, TCU wasn’t good at covering the spread last season. The Big 12 competitors went just 6-7 against the number, and were particularly bad at the outset of the season. The Horned Frogs went just 2-7 to open the season, underscoring their inability to compete early. They performed even worse as favorites. TCU was just 4-6 as chalk, showcasing an ability to close games as favorites. Finally, the Horned Frogs lost a ton of offensive production this offseason, which will make it harder for them to pull away against a rebuilt North Carolina squad. Playing in what should be a raucous environment puts TCU at a disadvantage in its Week 1 matchup. This line sits on the other side of a key number, and we like the UNC’s chances of covering.

North Carolina vs. TCU Best Bet Total: Under 55.5

As mentioned, the Horned Frogs need to replace a significant amount of offensive production, as their top receiver and running back both left this offseason. But their scoring issues run deeper than that. TCU struggled to run the ball last season, forcing the Horned Frogs to rely heavily on their passing attack. But after losing three wide receivers to the NFL, they have close to 200 receptions and 2,400 receiving yards to replace. That one-dimensional passing attack, with relatively unknown commodities, won’t play well against Bill Belichick’s defense. Similarly, the Tar Heels have more questions than answers in Week 1. They lost Omarion Hampton, one of the premier rushers in the country, and have a new quarterback under center with a rebuilt receiving corps, which also lost six of its top seven receivers. Neither team possesses game-changing offensive contributors, indicating a lower-scoring outcome. Under 55.5 is the play.

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North Carolina vs. TCU Best Game Props

Gio Lopez to Record 40+ Rushing Yards +114 and Any Time Touchdown Scorer +125

North Carolina can count on Gio Lopez to move the football with his legs. The incoming transfer was a confident runner last year, showing more poise as the season progressed. As a freshman, Lopez totaled 465 rushing yards on 83 carries for an above-average 5.6 yards per carry. Moreover, he was a scoring menace, finding paydirt on seven occasions. As is typically the case with young quarterbacks, Lopez got better as the season progressed. After cracking 40 rushing yards just once in the first five games, the Alabama native would go on to eclipse that mark in four of his last six. That increased production correlates with more rushing attempts, with Lopez averaging 8.8 rush attempts per game across the six-game sample. With unproven receiving options and a new running back, Lopez will be given the green light to take off early and often in Week 1. We see value in backing him to record at least 40 rushing yards, while also finding the endzone.

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