NCAAF · 9 months ago

Power Ranking the Offenses of the 8 College Football Playoff Teams

Grant White

Host · Writer

1. Oregon Ducks
Oregon Offense: 35.9 PPG | 449.8 YPG

Points Per Game: 35.9 (13th)
Offensive EPA: 0.124 (3rd)
EPA/Rush: 0.118 (2nd)
EPA Dropback: 0.125 (7th)

Offensive Success Rate: 48.9% (5th)
Rushing Success Rate: 50.4% (7th)
Dropback Success Rate: 46.7% (9th)

The offense has been the difference between winning and losing for the Oregon Ducks all season. Don't expect them to cave now when the stakes are highest.

Oregon Total Points 27.5 | -106 Over/-106 Under

Spread: Oregon +2.5 | Moneyline: Oregon +110 | Total: 55.5
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Offense: 33.3 PPG | 413.8 YPG

Points Per Game: 33.2 (29th)
Offensive EPA: 0.122 (5th)
EPA/Rush: 0.110 (4th)
EPA Dropback: 0.098 (13th)

Offensive Success Rate: 45.8% (24th)
Rushing Success Rate: 45.4% (36th)
Dropback Success Rate: 45.7% (14th)

Shockingly, the Georgia Bulldogs have the worst composite aggregate of any playoff team. Their 413.8 yards and 33.3 points per game ranked 47th and T28th, respectively, putting them at an offensive disadvantage against any other playoff team. More concerningly, they'll be without Carson Beck when they take to the field for the Sugar Bowl.

Georgia Total Points 22.5 | -120 Over/-110 Under

Spread: Georgia -1.5 | Moneyline: Georgia -118 | Total: 45.5
7. Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State Offense: 33.1 PPG | 423.2 YPG

Points Per Game: 33.1 (31st)
Offensive EPA: 0.094 (12th)
EPA/Rush: 0.079 (12th)
EPA Dropback: 0.088 (15th)

Offensive Success Rate: 47.8% (9th)
Rushing Success Rate: 48.7% (10th)
Dropback Success Rate: 46% (13th)

The Arizona State Sun Devils are a one-trick pony, relying on Cam Skattebo to get them yards. While Skattebo was one of the best in the game, the Sun Devils will need more offensive production if they hope to make a deep playoff run.

Arizona State Total Points 19.5 | -114 Over/-114 Under

Spread: Arizona State +12.5 | Moneyline: Arizona State +350 | Total: 51.5
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Offense: 36.0 PPG | 427.3 YPG

Points Per Game: 36.0 (11th)
Offensive EPA: 0.124 (4th)
EPA/Rush: 0.088 (8th)
EPA Dropback: 0.142 (3rd)

Offensive Success Rate: 47.4% (11th)
Rushing Success Rate: 45.7% (33rd)
Dropback Success Rate: 48.2% (6th)

The Ohio State Buckeyes dropped 42 points on the Tennessee Volunteers in the opening round, a sign of things to come as they kickstart their offense. Consistency has been a limiting factor, but timing is everything.

Ohio State Total Points 28.5 Total Points | -112 Over/-118 Under

Spread: Ohio State -2.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -132 | Total: 55.5
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Offense: 33.9 PPG | 439.8 YPG

Points Per Game: 33.9 (T-24th)
Offensive EPA: 0.109 (9th)
EPA/Rush: 0.068 (16th)
EPA Dropback: 0.151 (2nd)

Offensive Success Rate: 50% (2nd)
Rushing Success Rate: 48.4% (13th)
Dropback Success Rate: 50.6% (2nd)

Penn State's 38-point effort against the SMU Mustangs in Round 1 validated its position as a playoff threat. However, they will face much stiffer competition as the playoffs progress.

Penn State Total Points 31.5 | -114 Over/-114 Under

Spread: Penn State -11.5 | Moneyline: Penn State -430 | Total: 52.5
4. Texas Longhorns
Texas Offense: 33.9 PPG | 448.9 YPG

Points Per Game: 33.9 (T-24th)
Offensive EPA: 0.112 (8th)
EPA/Rush: 0.084 (9th)
EPA Dropback: 0.131 (6th)

Offensive Success Rate: 45% (30th)
Rushing Success Rate: 47.4% (17th)
Dropback Success Rate: 42.6% (43rd)

Entering the offseason, the Texas Longhorns didn't have the most robust offensive production in the country. However, they've taken significant steps forward after a dominant opening-round performance.

Texas Total Points 32.5 | -114 Over/-114 Under

Spread: Texas -12.5 | Moneyline: Texas -465 | Total: 51.5
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Offense: 38.8 PPG | 419.2 YPG

Points Per Game: 38.8 (4th)
Offensive EPA: 0.082 (16th)
EPA/Rush: 0.116 (3rd)
EPA Dropback: 0.061 (30th)

Offensive Success Rate: 45.3% (27th)
Rushing Success Rate: 46.1% (27th)
Dropback Success Rate: 44% (28th)

There is a noticeable disconnect between production and output, putting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at risk of regression. While some teams can exist on this end of the spectrum, Notre Dame looks out of place when adjusted for its weak schedule.

Notre Dame Total Points 21.5 | -102 Over/-130 Under

Spread: Notre Dame +1.5 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -102 | Total: 45.5
2. Boise State Broncos
Boise State Offense: 39.1 PPG | 470.2 YPG

Points Per Game: 39.1 (3rd)
Offensive EPA: 0.077 (18th)
EPA/Rush: 0.118 (1st)
EPA Dropback: 0.062 (28th)

Offensive Success Rate: 46.8% (15th)
Rushing Success Rate: 47.9% (15th)
Dropback Success Rate: 44.9% (18th)

The knock on the Boise State Broncos is that they achieved these lofty targets against inferior opponents. Nevertheless, we should see them rise to the challenge in their first-ever playoff game.

Boise State Total Points 20.5 | -114 Over/-114 Under

Spread: Boise State +11.5 | Moneyline: Boise State +330 | Total: 52.5
1. Oregon Ducks
Oregon Offense: 35.9 PPG | 449.8 YPG

Points Per Game: 35.9 (13th)
Offensive EPA: 0.124 (3rd)
EPA/Rush: 0.118 (2nd)
EPA Dropback: 0.125 (7th)

Offensive Success Rate: 48.9% (5th)
Rushing Success Rate: 50.4% (7th)
Dropback Success Rate: 46.7% (9th)

The offense has been the difference between winning and losing for the Oregon Ducks all season. Don't expect them to cave now when the stakes are highest.

Oregon Total Points 27.5 | -106 Over/-106 Under

Spread: Oregon +2.5 | Moneyline: Oregon +110 | Total: 55.5
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Offense: 33.3 PPG | 413.8 YPG

Points Per Game: 33.2 (29th)
Offensive EPA: 0.122 (5th)
EPA/Rush: 0.110 (4th)
EPA Dropback: 0.098 (13th)

Offensive Success Rate: 45.8% (24th)
Rushing Success Rate: 45.4% (36th)
Dropback Success Rate: 45.7% (14th)

Shockingly, the Georgia Bulldogs have the worst composite aggregate of any playoff team. Their 413.8 yards and 33.3 points per game ranked 47th and T28th, respectively, putting them at an offensive disadvantage against any other playoff team. More concerningly, they'll be without Carson Beck when they take to the field for the Sugar Bowl.

Georgia Total Points 22.5 | -120 Over/-110 Under

Spread: Georgia -1.5 | Moneyline: Georgia -118 | Total: 45.5

Power Ranking the Offenses of the 8 College Football Playoff Teams

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