TST Best Bets: September 19, 2026

Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford was always going to be loud. After leaving Ole Miss for LSU last season, he’ll walk back into Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday as the coach of one of the Rebels’ biggest rivals. With both teams ranked in the top 10, there’s plenty at stake beyond the reception Kiffin gets.

Earlier in the day, No. 16 SMU visits No. 23 Louisville in a ranked ACC matchup. The Mustangs have opened 2-0, while the Cardinals have a chance to make an early statement at home after a 1-1 start.

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First Pick: LSU -3 over Ole Miss

Rundown: LSU’s 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech looked comfortable by the end, but Sam Leavitt’s three interceptions made it a much tougher night than the score suggests. The Tigers still moved the ball for 528 yards, and their defense held the Bulldogs to 139. If Leavitt takes better care of the ball, LSU has the offense to put pressure on Ole Miss.

The Rebels have looked sharp, especially in last week’s 41-9 win over Charlotte. Chambliss said afterward that he needs to improve his pocket presence, and that gives LSU something more specific to attack. Kiffin knows the reads Chambliss was asked to make last season, so I expect the Tigers to make him hesitate with different looks before the snap and force him to adjust once the play begins.

Leavitt’s availability was a question earlier in the week, but he was removed from the SEC injury report Friday. I’m backing LSU to clean up the mistakes from last week, make Chambliss uncomfortable and leave Oxford with a win by more than a field goal.

Second Pick: Louisville -1.5 over SMU

Chris Carter-Imagn Images

Sep 11, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Kris Hughes (14) is brought down by the Villanova Wildcats during the game against the Villanova Wildcats at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.

Rundown: Louisville’s offense has given me plenty to like through two games. Lincoln Kienholz has topped 300 passing yards in both starts, the Cardinals have already made 18 plays of at least 20 yards, and they haven’t turned the ball over once.

SMU has won every meeting between these teams, and last year’s 38-6 result is hard to forget. But Louisville put up 38 points against Ole Miss in its opener before scoring 59 against Villanova. This offense looks capable of making Saturday’s game a much different matchup.

Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs can score, so I’m expecting a close one. Louisville has the bigger plays and home field on its side, and with the spread at just 1.5 points, I’m taking the Cardinals to win.