USC Trojans 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

In Year 2 in the Big Ten, USC improved from seven wins to nine, from four Big Ten wins to seven, and jumped from ninth in the conference to fourth. Can they build on 2025’s success in Lincoln Riley’s fifth season, or will we be talking hot seat in Hollywood by the time November comes around?

USC Trojans Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 9-4 (7-2); Big Ten Finish: 4th (tied)
• P. Poll: No. 14th (tied) | Coaches Poll: No. 14 | SP+: No. 12
• Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (5th Year) | Record: 90-28 | USC Record: 35-18
• Offensive Coordinator: Luke Huard (2nd Year, 5th Year w/ USC)
• Defensive Coordinator: Gary Patterson (1st Year)

After starting last season unranked, the Trojans find themselves No. 14 in both polls heading into the 2026 season. With greater optimism also comes expectations.

USC Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 +115 | UNDER 8.5 -136
• Conference Wins: OVER 5.5 +105 | UNDER 5.5 -125
• National Championship Odds: +3500 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES +240 | NO -330
• B1G Championship Odds: +1600 | To Reach B1GCG: +500

There’s a clear-cut B1G 3 in the Big Ten in 2026. After that, it’s wide open, with the Trojans next up in the conference in the eyes of the sportsbooks. USC is the first of a quartet of Tier 2 teams in the conference, ahead of Michigan, Penn State, and Washington, a legit sleeper to compete for the Big Ten Championship and make the College Football Playoff. The Trojans may fail to post a better record despite all that optimism. In fact, you’ll win plus money if the Trojans match last season’s win total.

B1G Previews: Indiana |

USC Preview: Why You Should Buy

• All of Riley’s USC Teams Had a Top-10 Passing Offense
• 67 percent of Offensive Production Returns
• 4 Offensive Line Starters Are Back

Lincoln Riley has his critics, and they have a point. One part of his coaching that can’t be doubted is his offensive acumen. The man can put together a playbook and call plays. Among the many returnees on offense are QB Jayden Maiava and the one-two punch of King Miller and Waymond Jordan. Maiava threw for 3,711 yards, 9.2 yards per attempt, and 24 TDs in 2025. He will be entering his third season with the program, and some consider him a Heisman hopeful.

Miller was a breakout star with 972 rushing yards as a freshman, while Jordan averaged an impressive 6.5 YPC before suffering a season-ending injury. Both are home run threats. Sophomore Tanook Hines has flashed WR1 talent, and junior Terrell Anderson (NC State) was an excellent portal addition. The Trojans returned their entire offensive line, led by experienced LT Elijah Paige. Starting C Kilian O’Connor went down with a season-ending injury in camp, but this unit should be improved.

USC Preview: Why You Should Sell

• Riley’s USC Teams Are 6-13 vs. Ranked Teams
• Riley’s USC Teams Are 1-6 When Traveling Multiple Time Zones
• DC Gary Patterson Hasn’t Coached Since 2021

Bottom line: Do you really trust Lincoln Riley and his staff? What has he done to earn that trust? Over the past four seasons under Riley, USC has gone 6-13 vs. ranked teams, including 1-8 at ranked teams, with the lone road win against a ranked team coming at crosstown rival UCLA. Taking that further, they are 1-6 when traveling multiple time zones. That includes losses to unranked Minnesota and unranked Maryland, with the lone win coming at lowly Purdue. They are also 0-6 against top-11 teams over that span.

The 2026 schedule features five ranked teams, including three in the top six. Of the other two ranked games, one is at Penn State, which is one of three B1G road games where USC must travel multiple time zones (at Rutgers, at Wisconsin). I was a big fan of former DC D’Anton Lynn, who left for Penn State. He had the defense trending in the right direction. I have doubts about a Gary Patterson-led defense in 2026.

USC Breakout Player: The Pass Catchers

• Tanook Hines: 16.5 YPC for 561 Yards as a Freshman
• Terrell Anderson: 16.1 YPC for 629 yards (5 starts)
• 3 Top 75 freshmen Pass Catchers

The Trojans must replace star wideouts Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, but could have a deeper group of pass catchers in 2026. You can make the case that the aforementioned Hines and Anderson had their breakout seasons in 2025, and to some extent they did. But they could be All-American candidates this season if they continue to progress. What might slow down their ascent is USC’s talented freshmen. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Boobie Feaster are two of the best in their class. They have star potential, which isn’t stopping Trent Mosley from making his case for a starting role. Then there’s TE Mark Bowman, an elite athlete who is projected to start from Day 1 and be an immediate impact player.

USC X-Factor: The Freshmen Class

• No. 1 247Sports Composite Class of 2026
• 10 Top-100 recruits
• 3 5-Stars | 17 4-Stars

With 37 commits, this is one of the biggest freshman classes in the country, but it’s not just quantity that earned USC the top spot. There is plenty of quality. The recently released depth chart confirms that Bowman is the starting tight end, with wideouts Mosley and Dixon Wyatt joining him. The name generating the most buzz in camp is EDGE Luke Wafle, a five-star freshman who is also a next-level caliber athlete slated to start right away. CB “Rock” Hill (ESPN’s No. 1 CB) could also start.

 Their top-rated freshman is OT Keenyi Pepe, who has impressed so far in camp and is expected to find his way on the field. ESPN ranked the Big Ten’s top freshman to make an impact in 2026 with Wafle second, Bowman fourth, and Pepe seventh. Other freshmen who have impressed in camp are 320-pound DT “TomTom” Topui (Oregon flip), S Madden Riordan (bulked up since spring), RB Deshonne Redeaux (looks explosive), and LB Talanoa Ili (moving up depth chart). A big part of the optimism in SoCal is this freshman class, so they will have to deliver sooner rather than later to be a CFP team. The NCAA’s new five-in-five rule ensures there will be no holding back.

USC Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 11
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 3

Here’s where things could get tricky for the Men of Troy, or should I say Troy boys, considering how many freshmen are being counted on. USC faces one of the toughest conference schedules in the nation. Two off weeks (USC plays in Week 0) are a benefit in their favor. They should handle San Jose State, Fresno State, and Louisiana rather easily, but that’s where things get challenging.

No, I’m not expecting Rutgers to pull off a Week 4 upset, but traveling across the country and back isn’t ideal the week before taking on No. 2 Oregon. That begins a stretch of seven games against teams that are either ranked or multiple time zones away. The Trojans face the B1G3 of Ohio State, Indiana (road), and Oregon. They also play top-20 teams Washington and Penn State. At PSU is one of the three multiple-time-zone games over a span of 36 days. Moreover, USC only gets two of the Big Ten’s bottom six (three of the bottom nine). Daunting is an understatement.

USC Best Bet, Long Shot, and Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

• Win Total: UNDER 8.5 (-136 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: UNDER 5.5 Conference Wins (–120 @ Caesars)
• Long Shot: Exactly 7 Wins (+400 @ Caesars)

I like this USC team. I really do. They are a legit College Football Playoff contender, but not a National Championship contender, which is what the schedule calls for. I’m not sure if Maiava and the offensive line are talented enough to step up against College Football’s elite, or if the freshmen will be ready in Year 1. That’s a lot to ask. Unless they upset OSU, Oregon, or Indiana, USC will have to run the table in their other nine games to reach nine wins. That would mean beating Washington, and Penn State, Rutgers, and Wisconsin on the road.

They will roll through their out-of-conference games, so the -125 on UNDER 5.5 Big Ten wins is slightly better value. What if things go wrong? Maiava gets banged up? Riley’s seat gets hotter; they could lose five games. UNDER 7.5 wins is +170. I don’t see them losing more than five, so exactly seven wins is a tasty longshot if you’re feeling frisky.