Analyzing QB Rushing Stats in the Playoffs: Key Insights

2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Betting on the Rushing Quarterbacks

The NFL Wild Card round brings plenty of excitement, with quarterbacks taking center stage—not just for their arms but also their legs. In playoff football, quarterbacks often rely more on their rushing ability, either to evade fierce pass rushes or to take matters into their own hands when the stakes are high. This year, the rushing lines for the Wild Card quarterbacks present compelling opportunities for bettors. Let’s break down the rushing props for Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, Russell Wilson of the Pittsburgh Steelers, C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers to see where the value lies.

Lamar Jackson: Higher Than 48.5 Rushing Yards

It’s no surprise to see Jackson at the top of the rushing yard props, set at 48.5. Historically, Jackson elevates his game in the playoffs, particularly with his rushing ability. Averaging over 80 rushing yards per game in his postseason career, Jackson has repeatedly proven that his legs are his ultimate weapon in high-pressure moments.

Just last year, Jackson opened the postseason with an 11-carry, 100-yard performance, followed by an 8-carry, 54-yard outing against the Kansas City Chiefs. These are the kind of numbers bettors dream of, especially since Jackson often exceeds his regular-season averages when the stakes are higher. Against a team like Baltimore, with its stout defense and disruptive pass rush, Jackson’s rushing ability could once again take center stage. Look for him to easily clear 50 yards on the ground as he scrambles to make big plays.

Russell Wilson: Higher Than 15.5 Rushing Yards

Wilson’s rushing line is modest at 15.5 yards, but that’s exactly what makes it such an attractive bet. Wilson closed out the regular season by surpassing this number in three consecutive games, including a 27-yard effort on four carries in a previous matchup against Baltimore.

With both teams featuring strong defensive fronts, Wilson may be forced to escape the pocket and pick up critical yards with his legs. This isn’t about asking Wilson to turn back the clock to his prime Seattle days—just a couple of scrambles or broken plays should be enough for him to clear 15.5 yards. Among the quarterbacks this week, Wilson might offer the safest “higher” play relative to his line.

C.J. Stroud: Higher Than 13.5 Rushing Yards

Stroud isn’t known for his athleticism, but in the playoffs, where every yard counts, quarterbacks often leave it all on the field. Stroud’s rushing line is set at a low 13.5 yards, making it an intriguing bet. As a rookie quarterback facing playoff pressure, Stroud may need to rely on his legs more than usual, particularly with limited offensive weapons around him.

Los Angeles’ defense often plays man coverage, creating running lanes for quarterbacks. If the Chargers’ pass rush gets aggressive, Stroud could easily break contain and scramble for yardage. In a game where Stroud may feel the need to put the team on his back, a couple of timely scrambles could push him over this modest total.

Justin Herbert: Higher Than 19.5 Rushing Yards

Herbert is coming off a career-high 306 rushing yards this season, averaging nearly 18 yards per game. His rushing line is set at 19.5, a number he’s hit multiple times this year. While Herbert isn’t typically a run-first quarterback, he’s shown a willingness to use his legs when the situation calls for it.

Against a defense like Houston, Herbert may be forced to evade pressure and take off downfield to keep drives alive. With his athleticism and ability to extend plays, Herbert could surpass 20 yards on the ground. Playoff football often amplifies Herbert’s tendency to take what the defense gives him, and this could translate into rushing opportunities.

Final Thoughts: Betting Value and Strategy

If you had to pick one quarterback to exceed their rushing total, Wilson’s line of 15.5 offers the best value. The combination of his recent rushing success and the game script suggests Wilson will need to make plays with his legs.

However, Jackson’s playoff track record can’t be ignored. His rushing ceiling is sky-high, and while his line is significantly higher at 48.5, it’s still one of the safer plays given his postseason history.

For more adventurous bettors, taking a shot on Stroud’s 13.5 rushing yards is worth considering. Stroud’s lower number and underdog status make this a sneaky value play, especially if Los Angeles plays aggressive man coverage.

No matter which quarterback you choose, keep in mind the playoff factor: quarterbacks run more when the stakes are high. This trend, paired with favorable prop lines, could make for a profitable Wild Card weekend.

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