Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Game Analysis & Betting Insights

2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

The AFC North rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens takes center stage in the Wild Card round, with the Ravens entering as significant favorites. The total has climbed to 44.5, reflecting the betting public’s expectation of a higher-scoring affair than usual in this matchup. Let’s break down the game, key strategies for both teams and the best betting angles.

Point Spread: Baltimore -9.5

Baltimore enters as 9.5-point favorites, a line that reflects their dominance over Pittsburgh in recent meetings, including a 17-point victory just weeks ago. However, divisional games, especially between these two teams, tend to be tightly contested.

Historically, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers thrive as underdogs, often covering large spreads, even against superior opponents. This creates an intriguing dynamic: while Baltimore is the better team on paper, Pittsburgh’s resilience and familiarity with the Ravens make taking the points (+9.5) a tempting play.

Betting Angle:

• Take the Steelers +9.5: In a rivalry this intense, expecting a blowout is risky. The Steelers’ defense can keep them in the game, making the spread too large to ignore.

Game Total: 44.5 Points

The total has ticked up to 44.5, fueled by the Ravens’ offensive success and the Steelers’ recent struggles on defense. While both teams have the ability to put up points, this number feels high for a matchup that often turns into a defensive slugfest.

Pittsburgh’s path to victory lies in grinding the clock with their run game and limiting Baltimore’s explosive plays. Meanwhile, the Ravens will rely on Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability to control the game. Both strategies lean toward a lower-scoring outcome.

Betting Angle:

• Bet the Under 44.5: Despite the rise in the total, this matchup historically trends under. Both teams will focus on defense and field position, creating a tight, low-scoring contest.

Key Player Props

Najee Harris: Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

If Pittsburgh hopes to keep this game close, they need a big game from Najee Harris. His rushing prop is set at a modest 39.5 yards, a number he’s capable of clearing with consistent touches. Baltimore’s front seven is formidable, but Harris will get enough opportunities to grind out yards.

George Pickens: Over 55.5 Receiving Yards

For the Steelers to challenge Baltimore’s defense, Russell Wilson must connect with George Pickens on big plays. Pickens’ ability to stretch the field makes his receiving yardage prop of 55.5 appealing, especially if Pittsburgh plays from behind.

Lamar Jackson: Over 15.5 Longest Rush

Lamar Jackson thrives in high-pressure games, and his rushing ability will be critical against Pittsburgh’s pass rush. With his postseason history of explosive runs, betting on his longest rush to exceed 15.5 yards is a strong play.

Strategies for Pittsburgh to Pull Off the Upset

1. Break Tendency
   The Steelers need to throw the ball aggressively, spreading the field to target Pickens. Wilson must exceed 225 passing yards to give Pittsburgh a chance.

2. Win the Turnover Battle
   Pittsburgh’s defense, led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, must force turnovers and create short fields for their offense.

3. Control the Clock
   By leaning on Harris and Jaylen Warren, the Steelers can slow the game down and limit Baltimore’s offensive possessions.

Strategies for Baltimore to Dominate

1. Unleash Lamar Jackson
   Jackson’s rushing and passing abilities are key to Baltimore’s success. Expect the Ravens to use designed runs and play-action passes to keep Pittsburgh’s defense off balance.

2. Pressure Russell Wilson
   Baltimore’s pass rush must exploit Pittsburgh’s inconsistent offensive line, forcing Wilson into mistakes.

3. Establish the Run
   Derrick Henry and Justice Hill will be critical in controlling the game’s tempo, allowing Baltimore to dictate the pace.

Best Bets

1. Steelers +9.5: Divisional familiarity and Pittsburgh’s history as underdogs make this the best play on the spread.
2. Under 44.5: Expect a grind-it-out game with both teams relying on their defenses.
3. Harris Over 39.5 Rushing Yards: Harris should see enough volume to surpass this modest total.
4. Jackson Over 15.5 Longest Rush: Jackson’s legs will play a critical role in Baltimore’s offensive success
5. Pickens Over 55.5 Receiving Yards: Pickens is Pittsburgh’s best chance for explosive plays against Baltimore’s secondary.

Final Thoughts

The Ravens are the favorites for a reason, but the Steelers’ toughness and familiarity with Baltimore make this matchup closer than the spread suggests. Betting on the Steelers to cover and the game to stay under 44.5 aligns with the likely defensive struggle. Player props for Harris, Pickens, and Jackson add exciting opportunities for value in a game that promises playoff intensity and classic AFC North drama.