Houston Texans Running Back Dilemma: Season Overview

Houston Texans Running Backs: A Position in Flux

The Texans enter the 2025 season with one of the most uncertain backfields in the league. Joe Mixon remains the presumed starter on paper, but reports suggest he may not be ready for Week 1. That leaves Nick Chubb, coming off multiple serious knee injuries, as the most reliable option—though his days as an elite, every-down back are likely behind him.

This is an offense built around C.J. Stroud and a deep receiving corps led by Nico Collins (WR7 in early fantasy drafts), Tank Dell, Jayden Higgins, and Christian Kirk. But without stability at running back, fantasy managers must navigate significant risk when investing in Houston’s ground game.

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Joe Mixon: Questionable from the Start

Mixon’s track record as a three-down back is strong, but any missed time early in the season could make him a fantasy headache. Even if he suits up Week 1, limited practice reps and conditioning concerns could keep his snap share below expectations. In redraft formats, Mixon profiles as a low-end RB2 at best until we see him healthy and active.

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Nick Chubb: The Safer—but Lower-Ceiling—Play

Chubb’s return is one of the league’s best comeback stories, but expecting the same dominant, tackle-breaking force from his prime is unrealistic. Post-injury, he’s likely to operate in a more controlled role—efficient on a per-carry basis but without the 20+ touch workload fantasy managers once loved. He’s best viewed as an RB3/Flex who could have RB2 weeks if game script tilts toward the run.

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Offensive Line Concerns Could Compound the Problem

The Texans’ run game issues aren’t just about the backs—the offensive line is a major question mark. Trading Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders stripped the unit of its best pass protector, and run blocking was already inconsistent in 2024. For Stroud, this means more pressure and potentially fewer clean looks to find his receivers. For the backs, it means fewer open lanes and a greater dependence on breaking tackles in the backfield.

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Fantasy Draft Strategy

• Mixon: Draftable as a mid-round RB2 if ADP slips, but build depth behind him.

• Chubb: Safer floor but limited upside; target in the RB30–35 range for Flex depth.

• Handcuff Watch: If either misses time, a clear backup could emerge as a waiver-wire priority, but Houston hasn’t identified a long-term RB3 threat yet.

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Betting Market View

Sportsbooks haven’t shown much optimism for Houston’s rushing attack:

• Team Rushing Yards Total: Projected bottom-five in the NFL.

• Mixon Rushing Yards O/U: 750.5 (lean under until we see health confirmation).

• Chubb Rushing Yards O/U: 600.5 (slight over if he stays healthy as the primary back early).

AFC South Factor: The Texans’ division schedule (Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans) offers some softer defensive matchups, which could boost RB production in spots—but this feels like a pass-heavy team until proven otherwise.

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Bottom Line

The Texans’ running back room is one of the riskiest fantasy investments heading into 2025. Mixon carries durability questions, Chubb has a capped ceiling, and the offensive line downgrade makes consistent production harder to project. For now, fantasy managers are better off prioritizing Houston’s passing game and treating its RBs as depth pieces rather than cornerstones.

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