NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Jets vs Patriots
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Summer is gone, fall is here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 11, which commences with a divisional clash on Thursday Night Football!
Where to Watch New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
- Stadium: Gillette Stadium
- Location: Foxborough, MA
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Spread: NE -12.5 (-118) | Total: 43.5 (-102/-120)
- Moneyline: NYJ +640 | NE -950
The AFC East will take center stage this Thursday as the New York Jets (2-7) visit the New England Patriots (8-2) in Foxborough. This will be the first meeting of 2025 between these division rivals, and transparently, aspects have trended in opposite directions since the last head-to-head matchup in October of 2024.
The Patriots have been one of the top stories of the current campaign. New England boasts the best record in the AFC ahead of Week 11. When surveying the numbers, they rank in the top ten on both sides of the football. The Pats’ offense is producing 26.5 PPG right now: eighth in the league. From there, the defense has given up just 19.2 PPG, which lands sixth in the NFL.
The Jets are undergoing a frustrating year, to say the least. Gang Green is ranked outside of the top 20 in most major metrics. New York is particularly slow on offense, churning out 285.6 total YPG (28th) after nine contests. However, the Jets have won each of their past two games, which should be considered progress when compared to how the year commenced.
New England has won seven straight bids entering Thursday, and I don’t think that ends here. ESPN Analytics concurs, yielding a 71.2% winning probability for the Pats. From there, they are laying a whopping 12.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook. Some will eagerly take that challenge, but only three of New England’s eight wins this year have come with a two-touchdown margin. With this being a divisional affair on a short week, I am going to take the points with a motivated New York squad.
Best Bet: Jets +12.5 (-104)
With matters as they are, I am leaning toward under 43.5 total points in this primetime contest.
New England has played a suffocating brand of defense in 2025, surrendering just 79.2 YPG on the ground, the NFL’s top clip at this point. That being the case, I’m not sure how much success the Jets’ offense can consistently have if relying upon Justin Fields’s passing abilities—especially with Garrett Wilson (knee) sidelined for TNF.
Notably, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (72.9 QBR) is the MVP frontrunner at most shops across America. Maye is playing elite football, and his current 19-5 TD-INT ratio exemplifies exactly that. However, I am not expecting an explosion of points here after a physical game in Tampa Bay just four days ago.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-120)
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.
NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Jets vs. Patriots
- Jets +12.5 (-104)
- Jets-Patriots Under 43.5 (-120)
Week 11 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!
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