NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Falcons vs Buccaneers
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Summer is gone, fall is here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 15, which commences with a divisional on Thursday Night Football!
Where to Watch Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
- Location: Tampa, FL
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Spread: TB -4.5 (-115) | Total: 44.5
- Moneyline: ATL +205 | TB -250
With an opportunity to gain ground in the NFC playoff picture, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) will hope to take care of business against the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) this week. A divisional win here for Tampa Bay will go a long way toward possibly reaching the No. 3 seed. Conversely, a loss could send the Bucs entirely from the field.
Tampa currently holds a narrow lead in the NFC South. The injury-riddled Buccaneers have found success this season by leaning on fiery quarterback Baker Mayfield (60.0 QBR). After 13 games, Mayfield boasts an efficient 20-6 TD-ratio. Still, the overall offense has slumped to 17th in scoring (23.0 PPG). Perhaps receivers Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) can assist with that clip, as both were recently activated off the IR.
The Falcons’ season has already unraveled. With no hopes of a playoff run, Atlanta is entrusting the remainder of the campaign to veteran signal-caller Kirk Cousins (31.8 QBR). Cousins has seen action in six games this year. However, has only thrown three touchdowns. Further out, this is an offense that is averaging just 19.4 PPG in 2025.
The respective defenses on hand are relatively equal in terms of their statistical output. The Falcons have surrendered 24.1 PPG at this juncture, while the Bucs have been hit for 25.0 PPG by opponents.
I see Tampa Bay bouncing back in a significant way this weekend. ESPN Analytics concurs, yielding a 62.9% winning probability for the Buccaneers. To take it further, I believe Tampa’s likely reinforcements will power them to a victory of a touchdown or more.
Best Bet: Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)
Not only have the Falcons lost seven of their past eight contests, but their offense has struggled mightily. Over that span, they’ve scored only 19.0 PPG. That is the sort of production that directs me toward the under.
SportsGrid’s model is also fond of under 44.5 total points in this bid, labeling the low side as a three-star wager. Keep in mind: the Bucs’ offense has wavered as of late. In their past three games, they have averaged just 15.7 PPG.
The same sides previously met in the 2025 season opener. On that day in Atlanta, the Bucs and Falcons combined for 43 points. I think we’ll see the same amount, or fewer, as this series moves outdoors.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 (-110)
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.
NFL Week 15 Best Bets: Falcons vs. Buccaneers
- Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)
- Falcons-Buccaneers Under 44.5 (-110)
Week 15 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!
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