NFL · 3 hours ago

NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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Thank the heavens, the NFL season (and all its spoils) has finally returned. Summer is on its way out, and fall is on the horizon. With that, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next January. We’ve got you covered for Week 1!

Where to Watch Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Stadium: Arena Corinthians
Location: São Paulo, BR
Where to Watch: YouTube
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Spread: KC -3 (-115) | Total: 46.5 (-112/-108)
Moneyline: KC -168 | LAC +142

The AFC West will take center stage in São Paulo, Brazil, on Friday evening, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. As divisional rivals, the Chiefs are looking to defeat the Chargers in an eighth consecutive head-to-head game. Transparently, the Bolts have not taken down K.C. since 2021.

At the quarterback spot, we’ll see two of the NFL’s best arm talents in Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Both men can make any throw on the gridiron, but when you survey the opposing defenses, both men will have their work cut out for them on Friday at Arena Corinthians.

In 2024, the Chargers showcased the top-scoring defense (17.7 PPG) while the Chiefs landed fourth overall (19.2 PPG). Most of the leading players from those units are still here this season. Game wreckers like Chris Jones, Khalil Mack, Nick Bolton, Derwin James, and George Karlaftis will undoubtedly have their sway on tonight’s contest.

Kansas City was a profitable squad for under bettors last year, going 11-9 (55%) in that split. Across the way, the Chargers cashed nine overs and nine unders in 2024. Being that defenses usually start the season a little faster than offenses, and due to a foreign travel schedule, I am on the under 46.5 total points in Brazil.

Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-108)

Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy is one of the fastest athletes in the league — there’s no denying that. However, I believe his receiving prop of 60.5 yards (at FanDuel Sportsbook) is slightly too high. As a rookie in 2024, Worthy produced 61 or more receiving yards in just four of 17 (23.5%) regular-season games. From there, the Bolts ranked seventh in passing defense last year, allowing only 206.9 passing yards per game.

I understand that Worthy is the sort of player who can go over this prop with one reception. However, when he last played against the Chargers (December 2024), Worthy hauled in five receptions for 41 total yards.