NFL Week 16: Best Five-Star Bets on Kalshi for Sunday’s Slate

As the NFL‘s playoff race reaches a fever pitch, Week 16 presents a unique landscape for bettors. Between season-ending injuries to elite superstars and desperate teams fighting for their postseason lives, the market has left some significant value on the board. Here are our top five-star recommendations for Sunday’s slate on Kalshi.

Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert Prediction Market NFL Game Picks and NFL Kalshi Player Prop Picks.

1. Buffalo Bills -10.5 (51%) vs Cleveland Browns

SportsGrid Projection: Bills by 14.0 Points

The Bills are red-hot coming off a massive 21-point comeback win against New England. Josh Allen is again playing at an MVP level, having racked up 37 total touchdowns. On the other side, the Browns will continue to start rookie Shedeur Sanders, who struggled last week with three interceptions. Even though Cleveland’s pass defense is ranked #1, they don’t have the offensive firepower (averaging just 16.1 PPG) to keep pace with Buffalo’s top-5 scoring attack. Lay the points and expect a double-digit victory.

2. Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (53%) vs Dallas Cowboys

SportsGrid Projection: Chargers by 3.0 Points 

Currently holding the AFC’s fifth seed, the 10-4 Chargers are surprisingly priced as road underdogs against a mediocre 6-7-1 Dallas squad. While the market respects the Cowboys’ home-field advantage, the on-field disparity is glaring. Dallas’ defense has been porous all season, most recently surrendering 34 points and a career day to Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy.

By contrast, the Bolts boast an elite defensive unit that ranks second in yards allowed and sixth in sacks. While the Cowboys’ offense remains explosive, Los Angeles’ pass rush (led by Tuli Tuipulotu‘s 12 sacks) is perfectly built to exploit a Dallas offensive line that allowed a 45% pressure rate last week. Expect Justin Herbert to carve up the league’s worst passing defense and lead LA to an outright win.

3. Chiefs vs Titans NO 38.5 (54%)

SportsGrid Projection: 36.9

This matchup features two of the most hamstrung offenses in the league right now. The Chiefs are forced into life without Patrick Mahomes (knee), while rookie Cam Ward continues to struggle behind a porous Titans offensive line. With Kansas City’s defense still playing at a top-5 level and Tennessee’s offense ranked near the bottom of the league (16.1 PPG), don’t expect a shootout.

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