NFL · 1 year ago

NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Picking a Player Prop for Every Game

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Falcons @ Eagles: Bijan Robinson Over 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)
The Falcons have openly admitted that they want to get the ball to Bijan Robinson as much as they can this season, and we are ready to ride that train all the way to the bank. Their actions matched their words on Sunday, with Robinson reaching his career high in snap count percentage and touches. Assuming that workload continues into Week 2, he is more than talented enough to eclipse this total.
Raiders @ Ravens: Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
This Ravens offensive line was problematic against the Chiefs last week, and it showed on the stat sheet. Lamar Jackson had 16 rushing attempts, a number he hasn't reached since 2021. Most were not by design but due to having to scramble out of a broken pocket. We don't see this trend shifting in Week 2 with a vaunted Raiders pass rush coming to town, so we'll back him to scramble his way over this total once again.
Chargers @ Panthers: Gus Edwards Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The Gus Bus may have found a flat tire in 2024. Gus Edwards did not look good against the Raiders in Week 1, and it's difficult to say it was opponent-based when his running mate, J.K. Dobbins, had a career day. You can get there with this bet on two separate paths: Edwards either loses some of his workload to the superior Dobbins, or he continues to run poorly on a similar amount of touches.
Saints @ Cowboys: Derek Carr Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-113)
We are buying into the ideology that Derek Carr is a reborn man in New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's system. Even though it came against a porous Carolina defense, the vet looked incredible last weekend with a scorching 142.5 passer rating on the day. He looked as comfortable as he ever has in a Saints jersey and we aren't sure the market has fully come to terms with his potential resurgence.
Buccaneers @ Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Amon-Ra St. Brown must be eager to get out there on Sunday after Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles told reporters that they will be missing at least three defensive starters this week, including defensive back Josh Hayes and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield. It leaves the Bucs quite vulnerable through the air, and St. Brown combined for over 200 yards in the pair of meetings between these teams in 2023.
Colts @ Packers: Malik Willis Under 162.5 Passing Yards (-113)
There is basically nothing working in Malik Willis's favor entering this matchup. The former Titans signal-caller has not only less than a week to prepare but has been a member of the team for less than a month. He has zero chemistry with any of the starting receivers and has proven throughout his career that he is incapable of being a reliable passer. Even at this incredibly low total, we feel comfortable fading him in this spot.
Browns @ Jaguars: Deshaun Watson Over 211.5 Passing Yards (-113)
We are going to buy the dip on Deshaun Watson here and play the matchups. The Browns are coming off a game where they faced off against perhaps the best defense in the NFL, and nothing looked right. There was film of Watson airmailing targets, missing easy throws, and just overall looking washed. After Tua Tagovailoa tossed 338 yards against the Jaguars defense, that was all we needed to see to take almost any starting NFL quarterback to clear a number this short.
49ers @ Vikings: Jalen Nailor Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
With Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison officially ruled out of Sunday's contest against the San Francisco 49ers, it's time for someone else to step up alongside Justin Jefferson in the offense. We believe that someone could be Jalen Nailor, who caught his second career touchdown last week against the Giants. Jefferson has constantly sung Nailor's praise, and this weekend could be a coming-out party for him.
Seahawks @ Patriots: Geno Smith Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Game script, offensive game planning, and a stout defense are enough factors to tilt the scales for us here. With the Seahawks as favorites, there's always a chance they look to salt this game away with plenty of rushes in the second half, trending towards the under. Establishing the run is also an area that head coach Mike McDonald has constantly preached in the offseason. Pair all of this with a stout Patriots defense that just held the Bengals to 164 passing yards, and an under feels like the play here.
Jets @ Titans: Tyjae Spears Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The Jets front four did not look good against a rather pedestrian 49ers offensive line, and they did not do much to stop San Francisco's backup running back from going for 147 rushing yards. Head coach Brian Callahan also mentioned that he will be looking to get Tyjae Spears more involved than just his four rushing attempts in Week 1. It sounds like the perfect recipe to buy low on Spears's rushing yards total.
Giants @ Commanders: Malik Nabers Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Malik Nabers was the best rookie receiver in Week 1, and he did it with one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in a dysfunctional offense. Now imagine what he can do against against a Commanders defense that looked woeful in the secondary and allowed 37 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We expect the rookie to have an absolute field day, and it may be worth backing him to go over some alt numbers if you can find some solid pricing.
Rams @ Cardinals: Matthew Stafford Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-114)
This is an auto bet until the Cardinals show any level of resistance on the defensive end going forward. Matt Stafford and Sean McVay are one of the best coach-quarterback duos in the NFL right now, and they should have some strong scheming in place to expose this dreadful Arizona secondary, even without Puka Nacua. They marched down the field with no problem against Detroit, and we expect a similar level of success here against the Cardinals.
Bengals @ Chiefs: Travis Kelce Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I personally backed this in Week 1 and left with a comfortable winner, so we are going back to the well here. Travis Kelce has looked like he has lost half a step since the backend of last season, and he just feels like a fade until he proves it for us. It's also worth noting that Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are developing into weapons that the Chiefs did not have within the offense last season, where Kelce was so heavily relied upon to be a strong contributor on a weekly basis.
Steelers @ Broncos: Bo Nix Over 168.5 Passing Yards (-114)
As of Friday afternoon, limited props were available for this game, but we're good to back Bo Nix in this spot. The Steelers' defense may be getting a little too much love for their performance in Week 1 after facing Kirk Cousins, who looked uncomfortable and a bit wild in the pocket on Sunday. While Nix is nowhere near the quarterback that Cousins is, he is talented enough to clear this number.
Bears @ Texans: Stefon Diggs Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The headlines were that Stefon Diggs caught two touchdowns for Houston on Sunday, which really put a band-aid over the fact that he only had 33 receiving yards. With two hungry mouths to feed alongside him in Nico Collins and Tank Dell, we could see Diggs fall short of this number easily once again. Someone has to be the odd man out of this bunch, and even after Week 1, we still believe it will be the newcomer in Diggs.
Falcons @ Eagles: Bijan Robinson Over 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)
The Falcons have openly admitted that they want to get the ball to Bijan Robinson as much as they can this season, and we are ready to ride that train all the way to the bank. Their actions matched their words on Sunday, with Robinson reaching his career high in snap count percentage and touches. Assuming that workload continues into Week 2, he is more than talented enough to eclipse this total.
Raiders @ Ravens: Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
This Ravens offensive line was problematic against the Chiefs last week, and it showed on the stat sheet. Lamar Jackson had 16 rushing attempts, a number he hasn't reached since 2021. Most were not by design but due to having to scramble out of a broken pocket. We don't see this trend shifting in Week 2 with a vaunted Raiders pass rush coming to town, so we'll back him to scramble his way over this total once again.

NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Picking a Player Prop for Every Game

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