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Top 5 NFL Week 14 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

5. Houston Texans (+152) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday Night Football of Week 14 features an important AFC clash between the Houston Texans (7-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-6). At this juncture, both sides are playing for their playoff livelihoods. However, Houston is operating with arguably the NFL's top defense right now. The Texans have held opponents to 16.5 PPG, which is the best mark in the league. From there, they've kept others to just 91.7 YPG rushing. I don't love that for Patrick Mahomes (73.1 QBR) and Kansas City's offense in cold temperatures. Regardless, Houston's defensive line — a unit that has earned an 82.4 PFF grade — will look to harass the two-time MVP early and often. With that, the Texans' +152 ML price (39.7% implied) is appealing, as SportsGrid's model gives them a 45% shot at victory here.
1. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (+128)
At this point in the season, the New York Jets (3-9) and Miami Dolphins (5-7) are essentially playing only for bragging rights and draft position. These AFC East rivals have met once already in 2025. Back in Week 4, Miami outlasted the Jets, 27-21, in South Florida. Gang Green will look to flip the script this Sunday, as they now welcome the 'Fins to the Meadowlands. Ironically, the two teams are ranked 24th and 25th in scoring. Miami has produced 20.6 PPG while the Jets have churned out 20.5 PPG. However, given the change in scenery, I believe New York can steal a win at home (where they have won each of their past two outings). ESPN Analytics gives the Jets a 46% winning probability, which presents value on their +128 ML price (carrying 43.9% implied) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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2. Washington Commanders (+108) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Washington Commanders (3-9) are currently riding a seven-game losing streak. To make matters worse, each of Washington's past two contests has been lost in overtime. Be that as it may, the Commanders will next visit the Minnesota Vikings (4-8), who are also struggling. Washington is projected to return reigning-OROY Jayden Daniels to his starting quarterback spot, and that will provide a jolt of energy to this team. I like the Commanders in this situation, especially given that Minnesota has not scored more than 19 points in a single game since November 2. ESPN Analytics concurs, yielding a 50.4% chance to win for Washington.
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+108)
Week 14 will feature a pivotal AFC-South battle between the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) and the Indianapolis Colts (8-4). The division is essentially up for grabs at this point, and the Jaguars will look to seize their moment in front of the rowdy Duval County crowd. Jacksonville and Indianapolis will meet twice this month, but in this first game, I am leaning on the Jags' current momentum. They have gone 4-1 over their past five contests. In that same span, Jacksonville has produced 29.2 PPG. This comes at a time when the Colts have lost three of their past four outings. With that, I'll take the Jags SU for a potential plus-money payout.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (+230) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) looked like a brand new team with franchise quarterback Joe Burrow reinserted into the lineup this past Thanksgiving. Given their +230 moneyline this weekend against the Buffalo Bills (8-4), the Bengals are absolutely worth a sprinkle. Cincinnati has won each of the past eight games that Burrow has started. It will be a tough test against a talented Bills team in the snow of Orchard Park, but the Bengals are bringing a dangerous underdog mentality. Conversely, Buffalo has failed to score at least 20 points in two of its past four games. SportsGrid's prediction model also asserts value in Cincy SU, giving them a 43% chance to win. That is considerably higher than the 30.3% implied probability that comes with +230 odds.
5. Houston Texans (+152) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday Night Football of Week 14 features an important AFC clash between the Houston Texans (7-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-6). At this juncture, both sides are playing for their playoff livelihoods. However, Houston is operating with arguably the NFL's top defense right now. The Texans have held opponents to 16.5 PPG, which is the best mark in the league. From there, they've kept others to just 91.7 YPG rushing. I don't love that for Patrick Mahomes (73.1 QBR) and Kansas City's offense in cold temperatures. Regardless, Houston's defensive line — a unit that has earned an 82.4 PFF grade — will look to harass the two-time MVP early and often. With that, the Texans' +152 ML price (39.7% implied) is appealing, as SportsGrid's model gives them a 45% shot at victory here.
1. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (+128)
At this point in the season, the New York Jets (3-9) and Miami Dolphins (5-7) are essentially playing only for bragging rights and draft position. These AFC East rivals have met once already in 2025. Back in Week 4, Miami outlasted the Jets, 27-21, in South Florida. Gang Green will look to flip the script this Sunday, as they now welcome the 'Fins to the Meadowlands. Ironically, the two teams are ranked 24th and 25th in scoring. Miami has produced 20.6 PPG while the Jets have churned out 20.5 PPG. However, given the change in scenery, I believe New York can steal a win at home (where they have won each of their past two outings). ESPN Analytics gives the Jets a 46% winning probability, which presents value on their +128 ML price (carrying 43.9% implied) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Top 5 NFL Week 14 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential

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