Game 1 Blanking vs. Panthers Punctuates Oilers Scoring Woes

It might seem unfair to accuse a team in the Stanley Cup Final of underperforming. But that’s exactly the situation impacting the Edmonton Oilers following their Game 1 blanking by the Florida Panthers. 

That was the second straight game in which the Oilers were held off the scoresheet at five-on-five, perpetuating a tepid stretch in which they’ve recorded just one or fewer goals in four of their past six. In doing so, Edmonton’s five-on-five shooting percentage has plummeted below expected levels.

That leaves them only one direction to go ahead of Game 2 on Monday night. 

Incomplete Performances

The Oilers can hang their hat on many offensive accomplishments, but getting balanced production across all strengths throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs is not one of them. Edmonton has recorded just one goal at five-on-five over their previous three contests, yielding a disastrous 1.8% shooting percentage. Moreover, 

Their recent decline is an unfriendly reminder of how badly things can go when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl aren’t producing. The Oilers’ dynamic duo can’t be held solely responsible for the dry spell, but the lack of output from top to bottom is a concerning trend. 

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Anticipated Progression

As ineffective as they’ve appeared, the Oilers are natural progression candidates ahead of Monday’s tilt at Amerant Bank Arena. Edmonton has dictated the pace in four of their past six outings. Over that modest stretch, they’ve posted expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in four of six while out-shooting their opponents in all but two of those outings. 

Still, the Oilers only have eight five-on-five goals over that stretch. Cumulatively, that puts the Western Conference Champions at a 6.5% shooting percentage across the six-game sample. That puts them well below their regular season average of 8.8% and even further off their postseason pace of 9.4% heading into Game 2.

Overheating Netminder

On the other, the Panthers are also playing with fire. Sergei Bobrovsky has been a stalwart over the past couple of weeks. The Panthers netminder has posted a sensational 95.3% save percentage in winning his last four games, leaving the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champions just three wins shy of their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. 

Like the Oilers, Bobrovsky is on an unsustainable path, albeit heading in the opposite direction. 

This season, the two-time Vezina-winning goalie has posted a 91.5% save percentage. Throughout his career, that number has hovered around 90.9% in the playoffs. His current pace is unsustainable, and Bobrovsky is inevitably spiraling toward regression. 

Final Thoughts

Expect increased scoring in the Stanley Cup Final, particularly in the short term. The Oilers aren’t as bad as their recent drought implies. Edmonton continues to deliver elite analytics, but its top scorers have failed to translate that into output. We should see a surge in scoring with sustained play and anticipated regression from Bobrovsky. 

Bettors can use that to their advantage in several ways. The total for Monday’s showdown is currently listed at 5.5, with the under slightly juiced. That leaves a bettor-friendly advantage in taking the over.

Likewise, Connor McDavid’s usual linemates are generously priced in the any-time goal scorer market. Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are listed at +135 and +410, respectively, while Leon Draisaitl (+185) and Evan Bouchard (+480) also spend time with the captain on the powerplay. Taking any or all four could be a profitable endeavor for hockey bettors.

It might not be enough to tilt the balances in Edmonton’s favor, but it will at least be a step in the right direction.

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