NHL Best Bets Today: Expert April 6 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for April 6!
Where to Watch Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres
- Stadium: KeyBank Center
- Location: Buffalo, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Betting Odds
- Spread: TB -1.5 (+190) | BUF +1.5 (-265)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
- Moneyline: TB -120 | BUF +100
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Kalshi Odds
- Chance: TB 52% | BUF 48%
- Spread: TB -1.5 Yes 31¢ | No 70¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 50¢ | No 51¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
The fate of the Atlantic Division will come into focus on Monday night. The Tampa Bay Lightning currently leads the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens by two points, with a game in hand. Coincidentally, the Lightning and Sabres renew acquaintances at KeyBank Arena, with the victor taking the inside track in the division race. Tampa Bay enters as short road favorites, but its chances of winning exceed the implied probability of the current betting price.
The Bolts have been on an absolute heater of late. Going 8-1-2 over their last 11, the Atlantic Division leaders are flexing their muscles at both ends of the ice. Across that sample, they are averaging 23.9 scoring and 11.5 high-danger chances per game, eclipsing double-digit quality chances in all but three of those contests. At the same time, Tampa Bay has tightened its belt in its own end, limiting nine of 11 opponents to seven high-danger opportunities or fewer. Predictably, that correlates with the third-best expected goals-for percentage in the NHL.
Conversely, Buffalo’s latest efforts have been much less convincing. The Sabres have been outplayed in three of their last four, watching their offensive well run dry and their goaltending implode. Across the four-game sample, they are averaging 8.3 high-danger chances per game while scoring on just 4.9% of shots at five-on-five. In the opposite end of the ice, Sabres netminders have combined for an 89.4% save percentage at five-on-five and 89.5% across all strengths.
For all of its success this season, Buffalo is still a tier below the Lightning in the Atlantic. The Sabres won’t be able to penetrate the Lightning’s tight defensive systems, nor will their goalies be able to contain Tampa’s elite scoring. Unfortunately, the Sabres will watch the Bolts’ division lead grow on Monday night.
Best Bet: Lightning -120
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Where to Watch Nashville Predators vs Los Angeles Kings
- Stadium: Crypto.com Arena
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Nashville Predators vs Los Angeles Kings Betting Odds
- Spread: NSH +1.5 (-225) | LAK -1.5 (+175)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under (+5.5)
- Moneyline: NSH +115 | LAK -135
Nashville Predators vs Los Angeles Kings Kalshi Odds
- Chance: NSH 44% | LAK 56%
- Spread: LAK -1.5 Yes 33¢ | No 68¢
- Total: Over 5.5 Yes 56¢ | No 46¢
We are witnessing one of the most intense playoff races in recent memory. With six or seven games left on the schedule, six teams are within striking distance in the Western Conference wild-card race. As it stands, the Los Angeles Kings are tied with the Nashville Predators for the final postseason berth, albeit with the Predators holding the spot on the strength of a tiebreaker. The Kings can tilt the odds in their favor with a win over the Preds on home ice.
The Kings’ recent play has been nothing short of sensational. They have gone north of 10 high-danger chances in five straight, averaging 11.0 opportunities per game while outchancing their opponents in three of five. While the early scoring results were tepid, LA has seen a sharp, if not expected, increase in output. They are coming off a seven-goal outburst versus the Leafs last time out, with all but one of those coming at five-on-five. That makes it 19 goals across the five-game stretch, with 14 of those coming at five-on-five.
The Predators are in a more precarious position. They are in the middle of a six-game road trip, which started in Florida on March 29 and has carried them across the country to California. More concerningly, we’ve seen their underlying metrics erode over the final weeks of the regular season. Nashville has been outplayed in four of six, while failing to generate any meaningful offense in the attacking zone. They have held to seven or fewer quality chances in all but one of those games, getting outchanced in four of six.
These teams met on Thursday night last week, with the Preds winning 5-4 in overtime in LA. We expect the Kings to exact revenge on Monday night. They have a superior analytics profile and will catch the road-weary Preds off guard with their vaunted attack. This may not have the offensive fireworks as last week, but the Kings will leave with the win.
Best Bet: Kings -135
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for April 6, 2026
- Lightning -120
- Kings -135
The NHL playoff races will continue to take shape with these two pivotal showdowns. We’re backing the Lightning to upend the Sabres at home, with the Kings getting past the Predators in LA.
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