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SOCCER · 6 hours ago

Gregg Berhalter Calls USA’s World Cup Group D the Toughest

Bo Marchionte

Host · Writer

The Most Difficult Group in the World Cup? Greg Berhalter Thinks So

When former U.S. Men’s National Team coach Gregg Berhalter appeared on Mad Dog Unleashed with Christopher Russo this week, one comment immediately stood out.

“I think we have the hardest group in the World Cup,” Berhalter told Russo today on SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio.

At first glance, that statement feels like a stretch.

After all, Group D doesn’t feature traditional powers like Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain, or England. The United States was drawn alongside Paraguay, Australia and Turkey. On paper, many fans saw the draw and breathed a sigh of relief.

Berhalter sees something different.

His argument isn’t based on having the strongest opponents. It’s based on having no easy opponents.

That’s where the expanded 48-team format changes the conversation.

Historically, teams hoped for one heavyweight opponent, one middle-tier squad and one nation they could confidently collect three points against. In Group D, there doesn’t appear to be a guaranteed victory anywhere on the schedule.

The United States enters the tournament as the host nation and slight favorite to win the group. Yet every opponent presents unique challenges.

Turkey arrives ranked among the world’s better teams and possesses elite young talent, including Arda Güler. Paraguay has quietly rebuilt itself into one of South America’s toughest and most disciplined squads. Australia continues to be one of the most organized and difficult teams to break down in international football.

That balance is what Berhalter was describing.

The numbers support his concern.

Group D may not feature the biggest names in world football. What it does feature is four teams that all believe they can advance.

2026 FIFA World Cup Group D Betting Odds

The United States is the clear favorite to win Group D, with odds around +140 to +150, while Turkey and Paraguay are close second and third.

Group D Odds (Key Futures Markets) via FOX Sports

  • USA to win Group D: +140 to +150
  • Turkey to win Group D: +160 to +175
  • Paraguay to win Group D: +400 
  • Australia to win Group D: +800 to +900 

Qualification Odds via BetFanatics.com

  • USA to qualify: -600 to -750 
  • Turkey to qualify: -400 to -500 
  • Paraguay to qualify: -200 to -205 
  • Australia to qualify: +120 to +1200 

Bottom of Group Odds via BetFanatics.com

  • USA to finish last: +700 
  • Turkey to finish last: +425 
  • Paraguay to finish last: +225
  • Australia to finish last: +110