How the Chiefs Can Upset the Bills: 5 Keys to Divisional Round Victory

Let Patrick Mahomes Do Patrick Mahomes-Things

The Chiefs don't need to reinvent the wheel or anything. They've established a modern-day NFL dynasty thanks to one of the most prolific quarterbacks in recent history. Let Patrick Mahomes do his thing, and the Chiefs won't have anything to worry about.  We could talk about Mahomes's two MVP trophies, his 12-3 record in the postseason, or his 105.7 quarterback rating in the playoffs, but they all reveal the same things --  Mahomes is just the best at what he does right now.  Andy Reid will let Mahomes do his own thing, and the Chiefs will be better because of it. 

Get the Most Out of the Secondary

Of course, not letting Josh Allen burn you with your legs is only part of the battle. Kansas City still needs to worry about defending the Bills' elite pass-catchers. They've stacked up well against the pass all year, and the Chiefs will need to lean into that strength on Sunday. The Chiefs' defense has been one of the best at defending the pass this season. KC allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards, a dramatic improvement from last year's 20th-place finish. More importantly, they've improved on that standard over the latter part of the campaign.  Since Week 15, the Chiefs have limited opponents to just 156.8 passing yards per game, below their regular season benchmark of 177.2. With many pass-catchers to cover, they maintain that suffocating defense brand is integral to success versus the Bills.

Defend Dalton Kincaid

The third key is a hybrid between the first two criteria. Buffalo has turned to Dalton Kincaid more as the season progresses, making him a priority in pass coverage.  Kincaid has emerged as the preferred receiving tight end and a top pass-catching target in the Bills offense. Over the past few weeks, the rookie tight has been tied for the target lead twice, resulting in an impressive 21.4% target share.  The linebacker corps has to work in tandem with the secondary to ensure Kincaid doesn't find too many holes. Blanketing him is one of the keys to stopping any Bills' offensive momentum.

Incorporate Travis Kelce

It hasn't been a banner year for Travis Kelce. The four-time All-Pro failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015. Moreover, he posted a disheartening 10.6 yards per reception with just five scores. Kelce remains an x-factor for the Chiefs, and incorporating him into their game-planning puts the Bills at a disadvantage.  Despite the limited success in the regular season, Kelce was a priority in the Wild Card Round versus the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs targeted their tight end ten times in that contest, resulting in 71 yards on seven catches. Consider that a warning sign to the Bills about what to expect in the Divisional Round.  We've seen Buffalo lose sight of tight ends in the past. Last week, Pat Freiermuth posted a six-week high with 76 receiving yards. Two weeks before that, Matt Gesicki had one of his best outings of the season, and in-between, Durham Smythe had an above-average performance.  Let Kelce snowball some momentum, and there will be no stopping the Chiefs. 

Let Patrick Mahomes Do Patrick Mahomes-Things

The Chiefs don't need to reinvent the wheel or anything. They've established a modern-day NFL dynasty thanks to one of the most prolific quarterbacks in recent history. Let Patrick Mahomes do his thing, and the Chiefs won't have anything to worry about.  We could talk about Mahomes's two MVP trophies, his 12-3 record in the postseason, or his 105.7 quarterback rating in the playoffs, but they all reveal the same things --  Mahomes is just the best at what he does right now.  Andy Reid will let Mahomes do his own thing, and the Chiefs will be better because of it.