NFL · 1 year ago

Ranking 5 Player Props & Bets to Avoid in Super Bowl LVIII

Ben DiGiacomo

Host · Writer

UNDER 47.5
By no means is this me touting the over, but if you bet the under in the Super Bowl, you must hate fun. We have Patrick Mahomes on one sideline and a loaded 49ers’ offense, and you want to root for defense? Really? Come on now! Regardless of our beliefs, the 49ers' defense has been a shell of their regular-season form in the postseason. I already anticipate Mahomes and Co. to put up at least three touchdowns, and I expect Brock Purdy to manage his offense enough to keep up. This will be a fun game, so instead of rooting for a low-scoring slugfest, bet on fun or focus on props.
Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy UNDER Rushing Yards
This is a personal preference, but I never understand the logic of betting on a quarterback’s rushing prop to go under in a playoff game. While the numbers may back it up in some cases, this is a playoff game where quarterbacks are willing to do anything to win. Now, in the Super Bowl, that desperation to win is amplified. Brock Purdy’s line is sitting at 12.5. He had 48 rushing yards last week, while Patrick Mahomes had 15, 19, and 41 during this postseason and a line of 26.5. If anything, bet the over on these guys, but stay away from the under.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (-130)
Isiah Pacheco could find the endzone on Sunday. Still, heading into the game, I cannot bet him at -130 when looking at the other options on the board. Plus, the 49ers’ run defense should be better on two weeks' rest than they were against Detroit. I can get Travis Kelce at +100 or Rashee Rice at +140 on the Chiefs’ side of the ball and Deebo Samuel at +140 for the 49ers. I favor all three over Pacheco, so I would allot my betting money in better spots. Plus, not having Joe Thuney on the offensive line is a more significant loss than many admit.
Christian McCaffrey 33.5 Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey has had at least 25 receiving yards in 14 of his last 16 games while exceeding the 33.5-yard mark in eight of those 14. I can confidently say that McCaffrey will get close to the 33.5 mark, so why sweat this bet out in crunch time? If you fall on this bet, you’re teetering on the brink of heartbreak since the line is spot-on. Stay away for your own sanity. If anything, tail our ultimate same-game parlay where we are touting CMC to get us at least 25 receiving yards.
George Kittle UNDER 20.5 Yard Longest Reception
It feels like chunk plays have decided George Kittle’s season. He has hit his longest reception of at least 20.5 yards in 10 of his last 12 games. I know the Chiefs have defended tight ends well during the regular and postseason, but Kittle can pull off a game-changing play on any down, so there is no reason to trust the Chiefs’ defense enough to bet the under.
UNDER 47.5
By no means is this me touting the over, but if you bet the under in the Super Bowl, you must hate fun. We have Patrick Mahomes on one sideline and a loaded 49ers’ offense, and you want to root for defense? Really? Come on now! Regardless of our beliefs, the 49ers' defense has been a shell of their regular-season form in the postseason. I already anticipate Mahomes and Co. to put up at least three touchdowns, and I expect Brock Purdy to manage his offense enough to keep up. This will be a fun game, so instead of rooting for a low-scoring slugfest, bet on fun or focus on props.
Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy UNDER Rushing Yards
This is a personal preference, but I never understand the logic of betting on a quarterback’s rushing prop to go under in a playoff game. While the numbers may back it up in some cases, this is a playoff game where quarterbacks are willing to do anything to win. Now, in the Super Bowl, that desperation to win is amplified. Brock Purdy’s line is sitting at 12.5. He had 48 rushing yards last week, while Patrick Mahomes had 15, 19, and 41 during this postseason and a line of 26.5. If anything, bet the over on these guys, but stay away from the under.

Ranking 5 Player Props & Bets to Avoid in Super Bowl LVIII

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