San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Padres @ Twins – First Pitch: 1:10 p.m.
Betting Preview: Padres’ Yu Darvish Faces Twins’ Bailey Ober
The focus is on the pitchers in the forthcoming MLB game between the Padres and Twins. With Yu Darvish at -132 against Bailey Ober, it’s a critical element for betting enthusiasts.
Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -1.5 | +142 | O 8.5 | -106 | -118 | Open |
| +127 | 8 | -116 | -132 | Current | ||
| Twins | +1.5 | -169 | U 8.5 | -114 | -101 | Open |
| -151 | 8 | -104 | +112 | Current | ||
Projected Lineups:
Padres
Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish: 2-2, 3.19 ERA, 9.82 K/9
| 1. | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | .266, 4 HR, 10 RBI |
| 2. | 1B | Jake Cronenworth | .236, 3 HR, 14 RBI |
| 3. | DH | Manny Machado | .250, 5 HR, 18 RBI |
| 4. | LF | Juan Soto | .246, 6 HR, 18 RBI |
| 5. | SS | Xander Bogaerts | .272, 6 HR, 15 RBI |
| 6. | CF | Trent Grisham | .217, 4 HR, 12 RBI |
| 7. | 3B | Ha-Seong Kim | .229, 3 HR, 10 RBI |
| 8. | 2B | Rougned Odor | .105, 0 HR, 2 RBI |
| 9. | C | Austin Nola | .158, 1 HR, 7 RBI |
Assessing Yu Darvish’s Performance
On the other hand, Darvish, with a 4.12 X FIP number, has been solid against both left-handed and right-handed batters. He has held lefties to a .325 weighted on-base percentage and righties to .217. Given the Twins’ line-up, we could expect a strong performance from Darvish.
Twins
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 2-0, 0.98 ERA, 7.85 K/9
| 1. | DH | Byron Buxton | .226, 8 HR, 19 RBI |
| 2. | RF | Max Kepler | .223, 6 HR, 13 RBI |
| 3. | SS | Carlos Correa | .189, 5 HR, 16 RBI |
| 4. | 1B | Alex Kirilloff | .333, 0 HR, 1 RBI |
| 5. | 2B | Jorge Polanco | .278, 2 HR, 11 RBI |
| 6. | CF | Nick Gordon | .164, 2 HR, 5 RBI |
| 7. | 3B | Kyle Farmer | .235, 1 HR, 5 RBI |
| 8. | LF | Joey Gallo | .182, 7 HR, 14 RBI |
| 9. | C | Ryan Jeffers | .273, 1 HR, 3 RBI |
Evaluating Bailey Ober’s Performance
With a slightly high xFIP number of 4.95, Bailey Ober has been consistent but not extraordinary this season. Surprisingly, his splits are impressive, with a weighted on-base average of .256 against lefties and .130 against righties. His minuscule ISO power numbers—.057 against lefties and .037 against righties—are also noteworthy.
However, Ober’s high flyball percentage could be problematic. He’s predominantly a fly ball pitcher, with only 28% of balls hit against him, resulting in grounders. Given the Padres’ batting prowess, this tendency could come back to haunt him.
Betting Insights:
Padres
- The over hit in 0 of the San Diego Padres last 5 games on the road in 2023
- The San Diego Padres are 3-2 (.600) on the road as a favorite in their last five games in 2023
Twins
- The Minnesota Twins are 1-4 (.200) at home as an underdog in their last five games since the start of 2022
- The over hit in 6 of the Minnesota Twins last 18 games at home in 2023
Potential Betting Angles
The game might lean towards an under, given Darvish’s effective pitching and the Padres’ waiting game for their line-up to heat up. Xander Bogaerts and Matt Carpenter show promising ISO power numbers, but the rest of the lineup is still finding its groove.
Meanwhile, Juan Soto, known for his high on-base percentage, could be a player to watch. Despite his average dipping below .250, his ability to draw walks and his potential for improvement make him a critical factor in San Diego’s offensive game.
Betting Considerations
With Darvish’s consistent performance and Ober’s potential fly ball issue, the betting dynamics appear to favor the Padres. However, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the Padres’ lineup and Soto’s performance, as these could significantly influence the betting landscape for this MLB clash.
