Get ready for an exciting MLB clash as the Seattle Mariners take on the Boston Red Sox. Luis Castillo will be leading the charge for the Mariners, while Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the Red Sox. Seattle, being the road favorites at a -162 price according to the FanDuel Sportsbook, promises to bring their A-game to Fenway Park, with a total run expectation of 10.

Pivetta has had some bad luck lately, but the discrepancy between his FIP and ERA indicates that positive regression could be imminent. Boston will need this improvement, as their lineup has struggled to score runs recently. In contrast, Castillo will look to continue his solid performance for the Mariners.

Despite the high total, there are reasons to consider betting on the under for this game. Firstly, both Pivetta and Castillo are due for some positive regression, which could lead to fewer runs scored. Secondly, the Red Sox lineup has been struggling, suggesting that they may not contribute much to the run total.

However, it’s worth noting that Fenway Park is a small ballpark, and the weather conditions in the 70s at first pitch with a 12mph wind blowing out may favor higher scoring. Despite these factors, the threshold of 10 runs to lose the under bet still seems quite high, considering the current conditions and performances of both teams.

Given the struggling Red Sox lineup and the potential pitching improvements from both starters, betting on the under seems to be a promising strategy for this game. This Mariners-Red Sox matchup is set to be a thrilling contest and could potentially offer great value for savvy bettors.